Teach A Man To Fish And.........

[Saint]

Hello Vineet

Seems even SAINT's need an occasional weekend break ...

Cheers
Sanjay

Ah,Sanjay,my friend.......of late requiring more than an occasional break

Saint

 

[Saint]

Hello S. Star

Its very nice idea to trade with 1 share rather than do mock trading. Good work there. I think many guys ( n grls) who are doing paper should start doing this.

You have mentioned that when you are Stopped Out you are Reversing the Position. So when weekly is in an uptrend and you have a long trade on, being stopped out you also go short on a break of Previous Higher Pivot Low on Daily? Isn't it a wrong entry for a Short?

In this case the weekly is in the uptrend, on daily the last higher pivot low is broken but if a Lower Pivot High is not in place, thats not a downtrend even on daily.

From your post it seems that you are doing lots of experimentations, thats very nice. Using indicators is your choice, as they say whatever works for you. You will need a huge sample size to come to conclusion about what is working and what is not. You might also need to do some back testing/walk throughs for your indicators.

Don't change strat or timeframe midway, decide on one thing/combination and stay with it.

Sideways markets are tough to trade, but very good to learn. And yes we do not know in advance they are upon us. Saint has also shown us an effective way to tackle such market conditions.

Regards
Sanjay

As always,some good stuff from you.......

Saint

 

[Saint]

Thanks VVVV/Sanjay,

Yes what you say is correct - if we trade using last pivot high and low as our immediate support and resistence then our trade should be in the direction of the break out - if we are trading intraday/daily time frame and are looking for trade after break out or we should just play between the two ends. I agree and have been doing it successfully.

What Sanjay says - is we should only take position in the direction of the weekly trend if i understand correctly. Means if i am long on break of pivot high - when the weekly is up , i should not reverse my trade when it gets stopped out because that is against the major trend.

To sum up -

Long only - when immediately pivot high is broken and weekly is up. If you get stopped out , book your loss and look for another opportunity to long but do not short. Follow this untill the weekly pivot low is not breeched.

Short only - when immediately pivot low is broken and weekly is down. If you get stopped out, book your loss and look for another opportunity to short but do not go long. Follow this untill weekly pivot high is not breeched.

Perfect as per text book.

But - sometimes i find the distance between pivot high and low is too far for us get stopped out and yet remain profitable. Sometimes i see prices consolidating in a narrow range and forming a compressing traingle or we see a expanding traingle and prices piercing the ends both ways and making me uncomfortable. Also sometimes in a bigger range - there is zig zag price pattern intraday and it stops me out both ways.

I have written all my experience - i have encountered in actual trading and the instances when i have booked loss. Ultimately - what i feel is i lag some training in position sizing. There is no way we can always be in a right trade in a right direction and at a right time. What best we can do is - if we are wrong we make small losses but if we remain right we make big money by holding on to our trade in right direction.

How can we know that price has peaked/bottomed - when there is sudden fast movement in a particular direction and yet it has not breeched any pivots. If we wait for the break of pivot to close our trade , many times virtually we loose lot of points before we actually know that it has peaked or bottomed out. Is there any way - by which we can know - it is time to come out.

Can there be any confluence of indicators which can help us? I am watching RSI/ADX and they dance but ultimately it becomes very difficult to conclude a trade because these too give wrong moves in the direction of the price action but with volumes of little significance. And same remains true for pivot break out with pathetic volumes in uncertain times.

Thanks for reading me and I am sorry if my query is a repeatation - unknowingly.

- Regards

Ah,you have already analysed and understood about position sizing being the problem,more than anything else............Previous post of mine is all just blah-blah repetition then....

And Sharestar,sometimes,we see a move upwards,nearly vertical with 10-12 up-candles,no pivots,then we are not placing stops at pivots,but at the low of 2 bars/candles back,or 1 candle back.

All the best!
Saint

 

[Saint]

hello Saint Bhai,

Remember, the other day I PM'd you that I had some queries. Well, I thot why not do some combing of our forum b4 bothering you. I can say that most of them have been answered now barring a few. and one of them is --- How does Saint scans the ocean of stocks to find which one has formed the right setup for ENTRY? naked eye or any specific query language?

Hoping that you spot this post and have time to reply.

Thanks in advance,
Sanjoy

Intraday and 60min trades,only select few that I have to pour through......the rest I go through in weekends.......Ah,Yes,all naked eye stuff,too set in my old ways,I guess....

Saint

 

[Bitz]

hi i have seen your graph.... i m new to ta.... can u pls tell me what does this red & black line indiacate??????
thanx in advance......

Hi Ruchir,
Me too new to TA...learning frm Saint.
Red line is Moving Avg line and Black lines are drawn by me to highlight the pattern...

To know more abt Saint's teachings go to
http://www.************/network/sear...teach+man+fish
In place of ************ type "4shared(dot)com"
and dwonload the pdf...somebody has done a great job by putting it there...

 

[ruchir131986]

Hi Ruchir,
Me too new to TA...learning frm Saint.
Red line is Moving Avg line and Black lines are drawn by me to highlight the pattern...

To know more abt Saint's teachings go to
http://www.************/network/sear...teach+man+fish
In place of ************ type "4shared(dot)com"
and dwonload the pdf...somebody has done a great job by putting it there...

hey thanx a lot .......
i hope you will share your experience with me.......
i regularly trace yes bank... a have attached chart of it over here... can anyone please comment it???
i m getting difficulty in using amibroker thats why it is from ET...

 

[rakeshluthra430]

Saint,
I have a few questns...please let me know your views:

1. Nifty has broken its last pivot low of 4991 and now its a 'sell on rise' scenario..unless it takes out the prev pivot top. Right??

2. If yes...then in such markets do we BUY shares which show some strength or do we only look for SHORT candidates? Judging by your posts, i feel you buy shares which show some promise...but is there anything else which changes.... for eg small profit tgts, small stoplos etc.

3. Somehow I feel hesitant to take calls in shares which flow against the 'likely' or current direction of Nifty. Even if I do buy (like in current scenario), I book profits too soon...or get out even b4 stoploss is hit which is highly frustrating.

4. Also, when I am short, I can taken only 1 or 2 trades (my money mgmt doesnt allow > risk and shorting poss only in Futures), but for Buy, I find a lot of candidates...so I feel my trading is skewed. How do you resolve this.

Thanks a lot Saint for your valuable time and teachings,

Rakesh.

 

[piyushonline]

Maddy, Well spot.. This looks like Cup and Handle pattern. Interesting !!! lets see if trend reverses... I am also new to T&A and learning

Hi Saint,

I was looking at the Arvind mill daily chart. After the great crash in January it is now forming a cup like shape with a pullback to form a handle.Am I correct in my analysis that it has formed a cup and handle pattern? Will it be a reversal pattern now as it is after a downtrend? The pattern also has completed more than 7 weeks. Volume has also cotracted in handle.

Thanks again for your great effort.

Maddy

 

[jamit_05]

Probably a very elementary question, but thought I'd ask anyway

Hi Saint,

Could you please refer to the attached chart. I have arranged the question there itself. This sort of an occurence is very bothersome as it is a little tricky to deceide the trend.

Amit

 

[sachin_jain3]

Re: Queries From students of Saint

Hello Everybody,

I am a long term investor, but i want to keep track of important long term trend reversals to ensure that i exit at the right time. I have invested in the indian stock market using some good mutual funds. I have been tracking the sensex's long term chart based on the saint's thread to ensure that the sensex continues to be in a long term untrend while i am invested. Also I had done a trendline on the sensex chart to ensure timely exit in case the trendline is broken.

Have a look at the chart attached. Clearly the long term trendline that i was following is broken. So i have booked some profits in my MF portfolio aleardy. But the last pivot low PL1 is still greater then the one before it (PL2) i.e. PL1 > PL2. So the uptrend is still not broken? There is no new pivot high that has been formed after PH1 according to me, so we wil need to wait and see if the new pivot high is lower then PH1 to confirm if the uptread is broken.

My dilemma is how do I confirm that a new pivot high is formed? I want to exit my remaining position if the pivot high is lower then PH1. Is there a way to know how much time it may take to form a new pivot high and how do we confirm that a pivot high is formed.

I have marked other Pivot High and Pivot Lows based on my understanding of the chart. You are welcome to correct the same.

All comments welcome.

Sachin