Teach A Man To Fish And.........

[Saint]

Hi Saint,

I was looking at the Arvind mill daily chart. After the great crash in January it is now forming a cup like shape with a pullback to form a handle.Am I correct in my analysis that it has formed a cup and handle pattern? Will it be a reversal pattern now as it is after a downtrend? The pattern also has completed more than 7 weeks. Volume has also cotracted in handle.

Thanks again for your great effort.

Maddy

Yep,Maddy.........but confirmation only above 57.5

Saint

 

[Saint]

Re: Probably a very elementary question, but thought I'd ask anyway

Hi Saint,

Could you please refer to the attached chart. I have arranged the question there itself. This sort of an occurence is very bothersome as it is a little tricky to deceide the trend.

Amit

What you described in your chart is the way it is done..........trail stops raised on new highs formed.......but in that particular example you had posted,the other rule kicks in.....7 up days in a row + steep gradient......raise stops to 2 candles back till stopped.

All the best!
Saint

 

[Saint]

Hello Saint,

I have posted my query in this thread.

http://www.traderji.com/trading-technicals/7747-queries-students-saint-4.html#post180145

Please find time to reply the same.

thanks,
Sachin

Shall do,Sachin...

Saint

 

[Saint]

Re: Queries From students of Saint

Hello Everybody,

I am a long term investor, but i want to keep track of important long term trend reversals to ensure that i exit at the right time. I have invested in the indian stock market using some good mutual funds. I have been tracking the sensex's long term chart based on the saint's thread to ensure that the sensex continues to be in a long term untrend while i am invested. Also I had done a trendline on the sensex chart to ensure timely exit in case the trendline is broken.

Have a look at the chart attached. Clearly the long term trendline that i was following is broken. So i have booked some profits in my MF portfolio aleardy. But the last pivot low PL1 is still greater then the one before it (PL2) i.e. PL1 > PL2. So the uptrend is still not broken? There is no new pivot high that has been formed after PH1 according to me, so we wil need to wait and see if the new pivot high is lower then PH1 to confirm if the uptread is broken.

My dilemma is how do I confirm that a new pivot high is formed? I want to exit my remaining position if the pivot high is lower then PH1. Is there a way to know how much time it may take to form a new pivot high and how do we confirm that a pivot high is formed.

I have marked other Pivot High and Pivot Lows based on my understanding of the chart. You are welcome to correct the same.

All comments welcome.

Sachin

Hi Sachin,

First it's important to analyse if you are trading the weekly charts......which means we honour previous pivot lows and highs on the weekly charts......If it's the weekly pivot low that you are looking at,the last pivot low before the dntrend was on the week ending 20/12/07 at 5676.70.....If and when this pivot breaks,the uptrend is over......No such thing as making lower pivot highs to confirm the end of an uptrend......Break of prev pivot lows and you are out of that trade.

On the other hand,if you are a long term trader,benefitting from the Primary Uptrend,your entry was in July 2003 and still in the trade.........If lower pivot highs are made and then previous pivot lows are broken at 4468,your trade that started at 1140 would have come to an end as the Bear takes over.

And if you were trading the weekly chart uptrend using the monthly as backdrop,then again you would have exitted in the third week of Dec and probably reentering soon once 5300 is taken out.

Any of the ways,the break of previous pivot lows is the end of that uptrend on that time frame........no more confirmation is required.

And remember,in an uptrend we are looking at previous pivot lows.......in a dntrend we are looking prev pivot highs........Break of pivot lows is what we are looking for to exit.

Hope this helps to clear some doubts........do get back if doubts persist.

All the best!
Saint

 

[Saint]

If you observe, Saint is always missing before the markets starts falling...his absence can be taken as an indicator of an immenent fall in the markets..... someone shd work on the 'Saint-away' indicator as well

lol

 

[Saint]

Piyush,Maddy,Ruchir,

Welcome to Traderji and to the world of Trading!

Saint

 

[Saint]

allways difficult to connect one ofour teachers as the pm box is allways full.

PM's cleared........sorry abt that!

Saint

 

[sachin_jain3]

Re: Queries From students of Saint

Hi Sachin,

First it's important to analyse if you are trading the weekly charts......which means we honour previous pivot lows and highs on the weekly charts......If it's the weekly pivot low that you are looking at,the last pivot low before the dntrend was on the week ending 20/12/07 at 5676.70.....If and when this pivot breaks,the uptrend is over......No such thing as making lower pivot highs to confirm the end of an uptrend......Break of prev pivot lows and you are out of that trade.

On the other hand,if you are a long term trader,benefitting from the Primary Uptrend,your entry was in July 2003 and still in the trade.........If lower pivot highs are made and then previous pivot lows are broken at 4468,your trade that started at 1140 would have come to an end as the Bear takes over.

And if you were trading the weekly chart uptrend using the monthly as backdrop,then again you would have exitted in the third week of Dec and probably reentering soon once 5300 is taken out.

Any of the ways,the break of previous pivot lows is the end of that uptrend on that time frame........no more confirmation is required.

And remember,in an uptrend we are looking at previous pivot lows.......in a dntrend we are looking prev pivot highs........Break of pivot lows is what we are looking for to exit.

Hope this helps to clear some doubts........do get back if doubts persist.

All the best!
Saint

Thanks for the Reply Saint,

As far as I am concerned i am trading the Primary uptrend and not the weekly trend. In that case should i be looking at the monthly chart rather then the weekly chart. I have tried to identify the pivot highs and lows in the nifty monthly chart this time. Please have a look at the chart attached. I have identifed the Pivot Lows (yellow circles), pivot highs (sky blue circles) and the entry (red circle). Is this looks good? Also since the last pivot low, PL1 (4468) was higher then the one before, PL2(4448), so this uptrend is still intact. Is that interpretation correct.

And if i were to do a trendline on this chart (marked blue), the trendline is still valid and the uptrend continues by that standard also. Is that correct?

I couldnt understand this statement of yours "And if you were trading the weekly chart uptrend using the monthly as backdrop,then again you would have exitted in the third week of Dec and probably reentering soon once 5300 is taken out." Maybe its a more advanced concept, and i need to read the thread again to understand.

Thanks,
Sachin

 

[maddy_invest]

Hi Saint,

I was looking into the chart of COMPUAGE.It has recently formed a Wide range bar. Is it advisable to trade in it now? The volume is not very impresive.

Maddy

 

[sachin_jain3]

Shall do,Sachin...

Saint

Thanks for the reply Saint,

I have posted some more clarification on the same thread after for reply. Please find time to reply.

Thanks,
Sachin