Teach A Man To Fish And.........

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Saint

My friend, It is such a pleasure to see you back in full momentum. It has always been a pleasure to read your posts. When everybody is talking about datamining, NN and other high sounding words which I found difficult to comprehend, you keep it so simple and lucid.

And again an excellant post. Like you always say...keep em coming..

Warm regards

Karthik
Thank you,my friend....So very nice to hear from you again.Hope all's well with you,and looking fwd to seeing you in full blast as well!

Saint:)

ps:at least you find them difficult to comprehend,I can't understand those terms at all!!:D
 

lvgandhi

Well-Known Member
Hi LV,

We have that last pivot low(no 10) on the 28th Nov 2006.....once it breaks to new highs,raise the stop loss to 3911 which is the pivot low made on the 28th Nov......and then we have the move down on the 11th Dec.Our stop is at 3911,that bar down takes you out of the trade.In short,you are out on the 11th Dec.Do not wait for the low and wait for the next day,etc...

The reason that you are in this trade is no more there........your higher pivot lows and highs just got cracked.You are out on 3911.

There are times when the market would take out 3911,and dump to 3860 and then close above 3960..........got faked out of the trade.But better to take the stop there and then,and get out!If faked out,look to reenter,but DO NOT Hold it past 3911 and look to see how the bar closes.

You are therefore basically out on the 11th Dec at 3911.

All the best!
Saint
Sorry for the trouble.I think it is narrowing down. Now to put a Sl of 3911, we have to have a trigger price if we are not monitoring continuosly. During these heavy falls, say if I put trigger point as 3920 and stop loss as 3911, the time order reaches exchange, already many orders are there at that price and buyers are not there that much or order reaches after 3911 is reached, order at 3911 is not executed. This I have seen during heavy fall or opening itself with big gap down. Is there any way to calculate and fix triggger based on SL.
 

lvgandhi

Well-Known Member
Hello LV

I am just giving my views, not trying to answer for saint.

From what I have understood the trigger itself would be 3911, the price at which the sell stop order will be executed will naturally be lower than 3911, maybe 3910 or maybe even around 3900.

Now if there is a gapdown and we find ourself at 3850, what do we do? We get out at first chance, whatever the price once below 3911. We do not anticipate, we just react and accept that the new higher piovt will not be made.

There are other implementation issues you should consider here, like the discount or premium on spot prices. Roll over of NF contract (maybe 5 time, as position in above case is hold for about 4 months), etc.

In this kind of positional trade having to give back 20-30 extra points has to be accepted as part of the game.

If i have confused the issue, i am sure, Saint will clear it up for both of us

Best Wishes
Simple
Dear Simple
Thanks for the answer.
I understand regarding gap down. But regarding sl trigger 3911 and sl 3911, I fail to understand. When price goes dn, trigger say 3911, the sl also 3911, chances are near zero as market goes dn sale order remains at 3911, price goes dn than that.
 

lvgandhi

Well-Known Member
Yes true that is why we put a Gap between Trigger & Mkt price,to get it executed.
Thanks Mr.Asish
I just wanted to know is there any method to determine the gap between Trigger & Mkt price for periods of drawdown.
 
U

uasish

Guest
Yes ,the concept is whenever Mkt crosses your Trigger price your order gets 1st priority in the Mkt's order book & whenever there is an opposite matching order in between your trigger & mkt order it will be executed.In case of Nifty Fut as you will find the Spread is 0.05/0.10 paisa in normal situation hence a 3-5 point gap is most likely to be exectuted,but in exceptional situation even 10 points gap may not work.
 

Ajax

Well-Known Member
Hi all

Excellent example of KISS (Keep it simple like Saint)

and profit.. Good risk rewards ratio & good effort put in/reward ratio too

Regards
Ajax
 
R

ratan jain

Guest
Difficult, Simple, extremely difficult

Most people would have run for the exits at the first sign of correction
 
R

ratan jain

Guest
Stick With The Plan
This may seem like a common sense statement, but the reality of market timing is that the majority of timers "think" they can stick to a timing strategy, however when the market moves against them, as it always does as some point, they are swayed by financial news stories, the desire to be "with" the crowd, and their own emotions, often exiting the strategy at exactly the wrong time.

Think about it. Let's use a fictional market timer named Mark for this example.

Mark has a strategy he knows has, over many years, outperformed the stock market. Mark knows going in there will be times when the strategy will lose. He sees this in the historical trades. He accepts this or at least he thinks he does.

But then, the market turns against Mark's first buy or sell signal and he is down 2%, then 4%. Mark is counting the dollars. He wakes up during the night with feelings of dread. Maybe "this" time it is different.

The next day, Mark exits the strategy and immediately feels better. He starts searching the internet for a better timing service. They are easy to find. We have personally seen some that "guarantee" 800% and 1000% returns. Much better than that 4% loss.

Of course the day after Mark exits the strategy, the market reverses and within a few more days, the strategy is now back in positive territory. Mark cannot enter, because he has lost 4% and knows it is not wise to enter mid-trade.

Mark is now feeling upset again. The initial feelings of relief when he exited the trade are gone. Mark is starting to feel he is missing out all over again.

After watching the market continue to advance, Mark finally makes a decision and re-enters the position after it has a nice 10% gain. Mark is feeling good again as the market has obviously turned and he is back on board.

Immediately the market takes back 4-5% of those gains and Mark now has a loss, that never should have occurred, of 8% to 9%.

Those who stayed with the strategy from the initial buy or sell signal are in positive territory and have a nice gain. Mark, however, exits again, with double his original loss, and quits market timing for good.

None of this need happen. When you start following a strategy, plan to stick with it for several years. That is how the smart money makes profits. They do not let emotions rule their marketing decisions. They stick with the plan!

The Trend Is Your Friend - Trade With The Trend
Personally, all of my strategies are based on trend trading. I know that the financial markets are usually in a trend, either up or down. So i enter the markets "after" I've identified a trend.

It is great to catch a reversal. It is also very difficult. Let me rephrase that.... it is almost impossible. I read stories of those who have perfectly caught a reversal, but they are news stories "because" it is so uncommon.

It is much easier to wait for a trend to begin, and then jump on board. If the trend fails, and some do, a well managed timing strategy will exit to cash, or reverse position, with only a small loss (or even a small gain). When the trend keeps going, that same well managed timing strategy rides the trend as far as the trend goes. This is where the power of trend trading is seen. By never missing a trend, and staying with the trend, trend following market timers make huge profits over time.
gFT UK

Finally, one of the most dangerous trading methods is to take a contrary position and pray for a reversal. Such trades rarely work out. But many, many traders try them. And... many, many traders lose a lot of money.

Let Your Profits Run - Cut Your Losses Short
The second part of this rule (cut your losses short) is the toughest one.

It involves admitting that you were wrong. But in market timing, as in "all" trading, it is a rare moment indeed where you will eventually be proven right after first being proven wrong.

All strategies should be designed with strict risk management right from the start. NEVER let losses grow. If your strategy gives a buy or sell signal, and the indicators then go into reverse: reverse your position (or go to cash) immediately. If you look at our various strategy trade histories you will see that we rarely take a loss of more than a few percent. Never be afraid to change from a bull to a bear, or vice versa.

There is a reason for this. It is easy to make back a small loss. But large losses are not only hard to make up, but the psychological pain you experience from them could cause you to quite the strategy. And quitting with a loss not only guarantees that you will lock in the loss, but it is likely to have a detrimental effect on your buy and sell decisions for a long time.

The opposite of course is "letting your profits run." I never set a profit target. As far as I'm concerned, when we have a profitable trend going, the sky is the limit. We will stay with that trend as long as it is profitable. 20%, 50% 100%. We "never" limit profits.

This is why small losses do not concern us. We know that when we have our next profitable trend, we will ride it to the end.

Never Make Timing Decisions Based On Tips
A tip is rarely more than opinion, and frequently a bad one at that.

Even if the tip comes from a friend, don't take it. If you have a hard time with this, go back to "The Trend Is Your Friend."

Burn this into your head! Unfortunately, in market timing, a "friend" is not always a friend.

Remember this: - There is "always" a reason to doubt a trade. There is always someone who knows, absolutely, that the trade is wrong. In fact, they are often willing to go into great detail why you are making a bad trade.

Why would they do this? Simple, it is to prove to themselves that their trade is the more correct one.

Again, this is all emotions. And allowing emotions to have any say in your market timing (or any trading) decisions, guarantees that you you will have even more emotions to deal with. The emotions caused by losses.

Stick to the trading plan. Trade with the trend, cut your losses short and let your profits ride, and never, but never, listen to others. Successfully following and profiting from a trading strategy can be accomplished only by you, and you alone.

Hope I didnt anger Saint by posting here :)
 
Hello LV

I am just giving my views, not trying to answer for saint.

From what I have understood the trigger itself would be 3911, the price at which the sell stop order will be executed will naturally be lower than 3911, maybe 3910 or maybe even around 3900.

Now if there is a gapdown and we find ourself at 3850, what do we do? We get out at first chance, whatever the price once below 3911. We do not anticipate, we just react and accept that the new higher piovt will not be made.

There are other implementation issues you should consider here, like the discount or premium on spot prices. Roll over of NF contract (maybe 5 time, as position in above case is hold for about 4 months), etc.

In this kind of positional trade having to give back 20-30 extra points has to be accepted as part of the game.

If i have confused the issue, i am sure, Saint will clear it up for both of us

Best Wishes
Simple
Couldn't have answered better than the above.......very nice,Simple,and thank you!

Saint
 
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