Teach A Man To Fish And.........

[gobatman2001]

gobatman2001,
Can you upload that collection file again & give us the link.

Asish

Here it is ...
http://www.4shared.com/file/17951415/61dc68aa/Saint.html

- Amit

 

[RSI]

One simple thing to be noted here. A notional system coded and backtested on data ranging for several years period may show fantastic results. But the question is this. While a notional capital can be deployed in any manner as we think. But is it possible with real money. How many of us have such huge capital? A system may show entry signal in ten or twenty stocks on a single day. Can a newbie will have enough capital to enter all these trades? If he does not enter a few trades because he had less capital and unfortunately if those missed trades were super trades, you know the result. System on notional capital and back testing may show wonderful results. But actual thing may be different.

 

[ratan jain]

RSI:
Forget 20 companies,

even when tracking 4 or 5, people tend to miss the main movers because those trades are the most difficult to take, maybe because of fast movement at breakout or whatever.

So, back testing a 600 % returns system may give you 30 or 40 % returns also.

One test......in any backtest, take away the 3 to 5 top earning trades and then see the results.

You may not wish to trade the system.

Although this may not happen in a trading system where winners are about same average for all winners.

I once saw a system go down from 1300 % to 40 % in metastock maybe 8 years back, ( I was using metastock eod then) just because of removing 2 winning trades, because metastock was compounding the returns for those winners for trades taken after those trades.

I hope I didnt confuse u all.

But my point stands, for any system where the profit per share varies a lot, try removing the 5 best trades.

See the results

Then go to your charts, and see those 5 trades.
Would you have entered them at that point, or maybe circumstances would have led u to second guess your system.

This post is just to show, that just back tested computer generated reports are of no use, they may show anything, forward testing is the real test

I am sure people here have found a good system.
Tested by software giving so and so % returns.
Truthfully, how many of you have gotten 20 % of the returns shown by your back test

I am sure people are going to jump in now and say, yes , we get the same results and sometimes even better, but they know in their hearts what I have written here is true and applicable to a majority of traders.

 

[uasish]

Thks gobatman2001.

 

[ratan jain]

Beautiful post Beginner_av

But just for kicks, try removing the top 5 trades and see....does it make a BIG difference, or a small one. It may tell u a lot about your system

It may reinforce your belief in your system or it may make you rethink if you want to really trade that system.

Tell you what guys , I think its useless to post here, all with people trying to show other people down.

I regret taking the trouble to type my previous post.

Best of luck to you all and may you all develop systems with 1500 indicatiors with 30000 optimised parameters and make all the money in not only the Indian Markets but milk the entire world dry

I concede defeat that the world belongs to the people with complex systems, automation experts, and we people with just our moving averages will never be able to stand besides you in terms of portfoli returns.

I hope this satisfies a lot of people here.

PS: This is my last post in traderji.com
PPS: Hitesh and Dev will be happy I wont bug them now

Thanks for all your support, your well wishes, your brickbats and all.

I hoped to write a lot here but people just want to read good things about complex systems.

I had tried to leave 2 times before, but had stayed back.....this time its quits.

Thanks Beginner_av for giving me the final push, I really appreciate your post.

Best of luck to you all.

Traderji is a good place, dont let all your ego's spoil it.

PPS: This post is NOT a rebuke to beginner_av.

Good Bye and God Bless

 

[karthikmarar]

Dear Kuriakose

It is nice to see a young student like you taking interest in stock analysis. It is also nice to see you trying to apply some the knowledge gained as an engineering student to analysis.

Modulation is fine. But it all depends on what type of signal you are trying to modulate. The stocks are random signals. So the whole approach of applying signal analysis techniques varies here.

We are already applying various scientific techniques in TA. SMA and EMA are nothing but FIR and IIR Filters quite akin to those found in electronic circuits.

Looking at your interest it would be worthwhile reading the works of Ehler. Some good stuff available in his web site.

http://www.mesasoftware.com/technicalpapers.htm

It is very good to experiment. But try to avoid reinventing the wheel.

The backtesting , optimization is all fine. Paper trading is also good. But thing change drastically when you actually trade (even more so when it is Achan’s kasu ).

In my opinion first try getting your hand wet …. Maybe after that you will have a different perspective..

Anyway nice going…. Ah… How I wish I had started as young as you..

Warm regards

Karthik

 

[Saint]

Another interesting read from Linda Raschke.....

https://lbrgroup.com/images///raschke0204.pdf

Saint

 

[Saint]

.....and more from Linda Raschke....

https://www.lbrgroup.com/images/Omega.pdf

Saint

 

[Traderji]

As a trader it is always important to remember that trading in the markets is an odds game, it does not matter if you use complex algorithms, chaos theory or basic technical analysis - the object is always keep the odds in your favor.

So the next question is how does one get that edge to be a profitable trader? It is a simple three step process:

• The first is finding a trading method/system that actually has a statistical edge.
  
  
• Second is following it with consistency.
  
  
• Third is consistently following the method long enough for the edge to manifest itself on the bottom line.

 

[beginner_av]

First of all thank you Traderji. What I wanted to say by writing a novel, you with your years of experience has put it in three sentences.


NOw RJ, calm down.

Beautiful post Beginner_av

But just for kicks, try removing the top 5 trades and see....does it make a BIG difference, or a small one. It may tell u a lot about your system.
It may reinforce your belief in your system or it may make you rethink if you want to really trade that system.

Thanks for appreciating my post. I know what you are trying to say. Problem is I cant be discretionary with systems. The overall results only reinforce my belief in my system. I may test it on other data, other periods, other instruments, random data, imaginary data etc but not cut trades out.

Tell you what guys , I think its useless to post here, all with people trying to show other people down.

I regret taking the trouble to type my previous post.

Best of luck to you all and may you all develop systems with 1500 indicatiors with 30000 optimised parameters and make all the money in not only the Indian Markets but milk the entire world dry

I concede defeat that the world belongs to the people with complex systems, automation experts, and we people with just our moving averages will never be able to stand besides you in terms of portfoli returns.

I hope this satisfies a lot of people here.

I dont think it satisfies anyone. I did not realize I motivated you so much. I have tried to consistently present both sides of the argument. But a system is a system. RJ, if you dont wish to follow a system, its PERFECTLY FINE. If you want to follow only MAs its fine.
RJ nobody has attacked you or showed you down, but warned you of MAs and disagreed with parts of your concept. But if you expect all others to only say great RJ, I cant do that, cos like many others here I know the limitations of MAs and how it can severely chop you down in non trending markets. And I prefer others to point out my mistakes, cos thats the easiest way to learn without burning trading capital. And the mkts wont blow a horn and tell traders that hey, now I am going into a range mode.

As for 1500 indicators, with MAs itself you can make 150 of them, so its not about indicators really that you have pointed out.

I hoped to write a lot here but people just want to read good things about complex systems.

I dont think so RJ. people love reading good things about anything, simple or complex. but everytime someone points out the pitfalls in something, you should not say that people are showing other people down. Imagine if CV had not showed me and other people down during noob stages. I wouldn't have learnt 5% of what he has taught me.
Quite a few times I am seeing this thing about showing others down. Every time you think that someone is showing you down, think first if they are showing you down, or your method/system/concept. If its the latter, then engage in a discussion. the results will be amazing.

Traderji is a good place, dont let all your ego's spoil it.

you only said it that its a good place. so the same applies to you my dear.