The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[gandharvashu]

Hi Pankaj and Czar

Czar u said why not be patient and buy later. You see, no one can predict bottom. Yesterday I heard some on TV saying this market is breaking supports, most probably 9600 will not hold. Now u see we did not even test 9600. Buy when u feel comfortable with a stock, i.e., its valuation and its growth. Buy when market has declined to some good degree. My view also was of that we will test 9600, but as I told ideally with so many short positions markets, can give a quick rally, that is what they did. Now, we have to see follow through, what happens here. I today again bought some shares.

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Pankaj and Czar

Czar u said why not be patient and buy later. You see, no one can predict bottom. Yesterday I heard some on TV saying this market is breaking supports, most probably 9600 will not hold. Now u see we did not even test 9600. Buy when u feel comfortable with a stock, i.e., its valuation and its growth. Buy when market has declined to some good degree. My view also was of that we will test 9600, but as I told ideally with so many short positions markets, can give a quick rally, that is what they did. Now, we have to see follow through, what happens here. I today again bought some shares.

Hi gandharv

Have patience. Individuals have no way of knowing valuation.
Valuation has three parts.

1. Current value as reflected by underlying assets
2. Future growth
3. Perception/psycholoy

First is quantifiable. Second could be anticipated. What about the third?

It will ignore first two. GFH.

Neither anicipate bottom nor anticipate peak. You may not buy in the valley or sell at the peak. But try to be some where. When climb is confirmed then go for it. But wait till you are convinced . Not czar nor I are important. It is for you to be convinced with your entry and your exit. Its your money and you have to feel comfortable with your investment. By all means go for it. After all pearls are found at the bottom and not on the surface of the Ocean.


Pankaj

 

[Czar]

I agree with you but I would rather go the vvonteru route of 1st thrust pattern the later learn pattern...

 

[karthikmarar]

PK

Some more figures and some more confusion

The net investments (Buy-Sell) of the FII for themonth of MAY is -7754 Cr.

Total Market cap at the end of MAY 2884136 Cr.

% of the money FIIs pulled out in May to Market Cap is 0.3% (I am keeping it simple, actualy little less if we do the exact artimatic)

% of index fall in May is nearly 18%

0.2% pullout caused a drop of 18% in the index

Am I looking it right? Am I going wrong somewhere? I am a technical man and not a student of economics. So may be Iam looking at it wrongly. Maybe you can throw some light on this.

regards

karthik

 

[Czar]

is this 7k cr figure equity or derivatives included ?

 

[Czar]

ok this is really strange:

sebi site i opened may derivatives & took sum of buy & sell figures of index future & stock future (without decimals...rough) & the net position is rs. 6954 cr buys... now will someone explain what is this game ???

 

[Czar]

hello this is shocking..when in april fii were buyers of 521 cr net in equity & we were rejoicing 11K & 12K do you know under your very noes how much the fii sold in derivates... the net sell figure is -8997 cr...out of which its -6940 only in stock futures... & selling of 4159 cr net in march in s.futures...

 

[Czar]

boss do you think these guys are dumb...crashing the markets & getting out...noooo.... like i had said in april...these guys were getting ready with their short position without giving you any clues...

now they are just giving you the sales in equity to show but the same is being leveraged in derivatives...net net they are heavily shorted the market...I am shocked...I have to now check march...someone helllp...

 

[karthikmarar]

Yes Baron, the figures are quite interesting. My figures are the equity figures. So in MAY they were -7K in equity and +7k in derivatives.

 

[Czar]

so basically in april this rejoicement was only due to heavy weights like ril & ongc, etc being used to drag the index up & help them shorting heavily in derivates ofcourse nicely hidden...

funny thing is sebi site gives net monthly figures for equity why not for derivatives ?