Czar said:
now that you have become nostalgic....here goes.... pardesiyo se naa akhiya milana....pardesiyo ko hai ek din jaana..
....whether you agree or not...this market has got definate traits of KP style... now he is doing it thru fii's...
also lets not talk about developed & developing.. .....financial 3 rd world war is in the offing... since USA depreciating its currency to control chinese growth & currency...EU will follow...
Agilent said:
I think we all need to ponder on that. There is some sense in what they say.
Look specifically at last quarter results of 3 heavyweights ... TISCO, SBI and Dr Reddys. (See attachment). My question is : honestly, how many of us had anticipated such a downturn (at least in these cases). Related question : how were their respective guidance statements ? What about analysts' estimates .... I doubt if any of them warned, or is it that they too had been in the dark
Karthik said:
Today the nifty has risen from 2000 level in early 2005 to 3600 and the whole the history is being replayed. I am sure this too will pass and nifty will reach 4500 or 5000 and the same drama will repeat.
Hi czar/agilent.karthik
I think it would be difficult to reverse the clock back. Pardesi babus will not go back and come again and woo desi bull and bears or is it ..
Like it or not have to bear with them.
USA has always faought on finacial fron any attempt to dominate them be it Japan, China or good old friend Britain. During 80s and 90s they have bullied India on several matters in order to open up the economy.
We also got somewhat benefitted. But the whole process has become irreversible and on a world scale. How much we take advantage of it depends on our ability and resolve.
Tisco's results have always been in doubt given the international scenario in steel , excess capacity, china slow down, fragmented indutry etc. Infact whole of 2005 it has been subdued and did not participate in Rally. Steel rally in fact started after Mittal's bid on arcelor which raised hopes of consolidationa and return of pricing power. Those who expected better result must have been fooling others. What was surprising for me is that tata was the main contributoe for current rally along with Reliance, both heavyweight. and had not participated much in sensex rise. Now it appears that these scrops along with sbi was used to camouflage the other operations of FII which would have otherwise kept index from rising.
SBI being in banking sector, interest rates would have telling effect. Not much was expected except mergers with subsidiary etc.
Pharma was in dumps for 2004-2005. Hence who expected Dr. Reddy's to perform well. Few nes here and there about patent cases . That all. These would have been used to jack up the prices.
At least I never believed the earning estimates. Nonetheless, these companies are worth in the portfolio in their own right but one has to wait for good entry price.
I have been through various reports and none of them suggested these to be an outperformer.
The question of NOMURA . It is clear they have indulged in doublespeak and deception. but ordinary folks would not have the kind of data to come to any conclusion of manipulation. Only guesses. Which is not what we want.
So I tend to agree with Karthik and that is the purpose of this thread mainly. When we discuss other things it is only to become alive to factors other then charts and technicals. Common investors would , in any case , be lost in that. So when FIIs come back, if we get some idea of their buying coupled with other factors , we can think of worst is over.
Though the current trend is on a global scale, we have to keep in mind that and instead of abondaning the market must come back to it in time before we become last in the queue. Market will get up soon and cross higher peaks. Yes same stories will be repeated. But then the members of this forum would be better equipped to deal with that situation. Karthik's optimism is what I share essentially. As an investor I can never short though money could be made off others.
Regards
Pankaj
