The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then
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Pankajda - Monday - we are in for another sixer & this time we will definately ignore international standards... Software may be the favourite on monday + all those who got left behind today (I only am viewing A group)... but 2 days after which I would like to book profits & watch...
Amitji - thank u sirji...
PS: Sure shot sign of next reversal will come when the mob starts saying the rally is back & the correction is over...lol
Amitji - thank u sirji...
PS: Sure shot sign of next reversal will come when the mob starts saying the rally is back & the correction is over...lol
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Hi
By this upmove nifty covered quite a distance. I think lots of shortcovering would have taken place and bears are badly mauld up by one single fell swoop.If bulls(read fools) rush in they will be equally targetted.
This battle will go on for quite some time. There is no need to be euphoric. We have seen nifty going to other extreme in equally swift move. Today shorts did not get a chance to get out.
We will see what FIIs were doing in cash, derivatives and what our MFs tomboys were upto.
Though todays upmove seemed lightweight as if nifty had no burden to bear
. Never looked back. Its like a bounce on the back Thud will be painful if it land on its back.
Next week will decide the course. As Fed Rates will be out. Oil prices... as usual. I am seeing analysts world over expressing deep concern on rise in oil prices ever since it was $37. World goes on. I suppose it is to create panic. So if oil drops one pence they will say economy will skyrocket(they never do infact). It is just to build sentiments. Inflation..... age old story and people who really suffer have to bear with real inflation and not the data. So even if it is .5% drop it will be projected as a big drop. Growth.... any percentile increase will be glorified though public at large may not be benefitted. Corporate earnings and similar stories. It will be played out ad nauseum till the story itself is dead.
Most of the stocks are down to their 50% level.They need 100% thrust to reach where they were on May 11th. Every upmove will be painful( and not deceptively lightweight) as always climbing hills is difficult than tumble down(which is painful but not difficult)
Wait and watch. Next week you decide what you want to own or average and last week of this month , god willing, will tell us what to do.
(If sensex goes to 8600 level that will be the time to invest in your favourite stock wihout bothering much and keep for one-two years.)
Pankaj
By this upmove nifty covered quite a distance. I think lots of shortcovering would have taken place and bears are badly mauld up by one single fell swoop.If bulls(read fools) rush in they will be equally targetted.
This battle will go on for quite some time. There is no need to be euphoric. We have seen nifty going to other extreme in equally swift move. Today shorts did not get a chance to get out.
We will see what FIIs were doing in cash, derivatives and what our MFs tomboys were upto.
Though todays upmove seemed lightweight as if nifty had no burden to bear
. Never looked back. Its like a bounce on the back Thud will be painful if it land on its back.Next week will decide the course. As Fed Rates will be out. Oil prices... as usual. I am seeing analysts world over expressing deep concern on rise in oil prices ever since it was $37. World goes on. I suppose it is to create panic. So if oil drops one pence they will say economy will skyrocket(they never do infact). It is just to build sentiments. Inflation..... age old story and people who really suffer have to bear with real inflation and not the data. So even if it is .5% drop it will be projected as a big drop. Growth.... any percentile increase will be glorified though public at large may not be benefitted. Corporate earnings and similar stories. It will be played out ad nauseum till the story itself is dead.
Most of the stocks are down to their 50% level.They need 100% thrust to reach where they were on May 11th. Every upmove will be painful( and not deceptively lightweight) as always climbing hills is difficult than tumble down(which is painful but not difficult)
Wait and watch. Next week you decide what you want to own or average and last week of this month , god willing, will tell us what to do.
(If sensex goes to 8600 level that will be the time to invest in your favourite stock wihout bothering much and keep for one-two years.)
Pankaj
Monday will be positive and Tuesday negative, I think. The data is that FIIs are slowly pulling back from the massive selling - just 20 cr. net sale on Thursday and perhaps a small net buy, < 100 cr. today. But I think will not pump in large amounts of money just yet, and most of today's rally has come from Mutual funds, LIC and retail.
The retail panic reaction is yet to come; and it will, next week in my opinion. Be very careful; the euphoria of two continuous positive days (today and Monday) will be enough to provide for cover and booking losses. FIIs are bottom-feeding at the moment and they're sitting on more cash than ever. MFs are doing the same thing, though they have much lesser cash.
The retail panic reaction is yet to come; and it will, next week in my opinion. Be very careful; the euphoria of two continuous positive days (today and Monday) will be enough to provide for cover and booking losses. FIIs are bottom-feeding at the moment and they're sitting on more cash than ever. MFs are doing the same thing, though they have much lesser cash.
Hi
Here is NSE data first
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy Value--- Sell Value--- Net Value
9-Jun-2006--- 2048.38--- 1667.16--- 381.22
And SEBI figures
Reporting Date--- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)---- Net Investment (Rs Crores)---- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
09-JUN-2006---- 2512.20---- 2400.90---- 111.20---- 24.80
NSE says Rs. 381 cr net buy while SEBI figure shows Rs. 111 crs as net buy.
So somewhere they have sold Rs. 270 crs. shares
As for derivatives they were Net buyer in all the four segments. Open interest was around 20,000 crs as usual.
MF data is not yet available.
FIIs are into buying for this whole week. Four days in a row indices tanked.
Suddenly, it has spurted. I has started seeing calls "Sell xxxx for yyyyy profit in one day" , short abc for pqr profit".
Suddenly cubs of the bear clan also became masters of the game as we had few calfs from bull clans. Now, how tender and delicious would they be for FIIs. Well to some extent it was anticipated. But as investor, we wait and watch.Most of the prices are now in my comfort zone. But let dust be settle first as see which way we are decisively headed.
Another point, volatality will continue. But signal will be when sentiment built up starts. That will be indicated by FROGs. Worldwide sentiment was negative to neutral. Hence, the wait continues. Don't be fooled by this spurt. Have you seen rubber ball bouncing down the Hill. As it gathers momentum, at each bounce it jumps a little higher but unable to climb up on its own. So is with sensex/nifty. It will need decisive push upward before it gathers momentum. Going uphill is always stupendous task. But aided by positive sentiments it may feel light.
Pankaj
Here is NSE data first
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy Value--- Sell Value--- Net Value
9-Jun-2006--- 2048.38--- 1667.16--- 381.22
And SEBI figures
Reporting Date--- Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)--- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)---- Net Investment (Rs Crores)---- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
09-JUN-2006---- 2512.20---- 2400.90---- 111.20---- 24.80
NSE says Rs. 381 cr net buy while SEBI figure shows Rs. 111 crs as net buy.
So somewhere they have sold Rs. 270 crs. shares
As for derivatives they were Net buyer in all the four segments. Open interest was around 20,000 crs as usual.
MF data is not yet available.
FIIs are into buying for this whole week. Four days in a row indices tanked.
Suddenly, it has spurted. I has started seeing calls "Sell xxxx for yyyyy profit in one day" , short abc for pqr profit".
Suddenly cubs of the bear clan also became masters of the game as we had few calfs from bull clans. Now, how tender and delicious would they be for FIIs. Well to some extent it was anticipated. But as investor, we wait and watch.Most of the prices are now in my comfort zone. But let dust be settle first as see which way we are decisively headed.
Another point, volatality will continue. But signal will be when sentiment built up starts. That will be indicated by FROGs. Worldwide sentiment was negative to neutral. Hence, the wait continues. Don't be fooled by this spurt. Have you seen rubber ball bouncing down the Hill. As it gathers momentum, at each bounce it jumps a little higher but unable to climb up on its own. So is with sensex/nifty. It will need decisive push upward before it gathers momentum. Going uphill is always stupendous task. But aided by positive sentiments it may feel light.
Pankaj
Hi
I am going to tell one story
Tale of One Stock:
One fine morning on Sunday in April 2005, I was enjoying morning cup of tea and reading BusinessLine. Indices were on highs and I was feeling left out. I was unwilling to invest at current level as I was thinking that market is overpriced. While reading The newspaper I glanced through Investment advice column. After reading their ideas for investment, I was struck by one of their choice. I never heard of that name. So going through details, I thought would it be goo idea to invest in this. I had some small amount from PPF withdrawal. I had saved for Income tax and then in April had withdrawn some amount ( once in a year it is permitted).
So I searched through NSE and BSE website. Found that It is listed on NSE but not on BSE. Checked its Financials and found better. Had reserves. Sector ,it was operating in, was an outperformer. The stock did not seem highly priced. The day it was recommended, it was quoting at Rs. 40/- Nice new Investor mentality to own more number of shares at less price. While reading about the company, I also found that it is a subsidiary of Multinational operating in its own right.
All reaserch took some time. Remember I had just become the member of Traderji.com and had practically little idea about investment except that I took the plunge on 17th May 2004. Well , one day I saw the price going to Rs. 60 from rs. 40 in two days. BL had given a target of Rs. 150-180 for a year. So I become interested and brought 500 of that stock at Rs. 58+Brokerage+STT/stock.
Naturally I started monitoring it daily in my portfolio and on NSE website. While all my other investments were for three year perspective , it was for one year. Partly to avoid Short Term Capital Gains Tax (10%)and to reinvest the same in PPF while making further withdrawal thereby saving cool 15% in taxes. I fixed my target at Rs. 140.
I saw all others stocks moving up but this perticular stock refused to budge. I lost my hope and started reading SAINT's thread and AMIT and Supratik and Karthik's thread more vigourously.. But my hopes were dashed by this stocks. Even though its fundamentals were good, it was as immobile as it could be.
One fine morning I heard the news of 21% dividend. You could imagine the joy I felt. The amount was small but I felt as if I have extracted my pound of flesh. The stock was hovering in red sometimes in green, it shot up. A cool Rs.3 upmove in one day. Again next day and the next day till it reached 75. Thereafter one day it fell to Rs. 70. I was curious. I found that day was ex date for getting dividend. For some days stock was in no delivery period.
Any way I was happy by the little gains. By July, I got may cheque and I promptly deposited in the bank. It covered my cost of demat etc. Any way stock resumed its saintly posture and stopped reacting to my fervant prayers for gains. I also cursed BL for giving such an Idea.Rest of the stocks were flying and this was limping .
I kept my patience , however. The I learnet about indicators and started applying them on this stocks. No amount of TA/FA could prod this stock into moving. Kept moving in a range of 70-75. Any way I was not in loss and full six months were to be covered.
One day Sometime in october I saw market take a breather. But this stock did not budge. The I realised that this is stone even for bears and I am , at least , safe with it.
One of the member started a thread on Bollinger Bands dear Mohan. So I applied that and immediately saw that its going into squeeze. One more stock I identified was Mcleod Russel then quoting at 67. So I put this query in the forum. Mohan confirmed that it is in bollinger band. I did not ask about the stock I was holding.Once I remember asking SAINT for it when I was at my wits end. His advise was to hold for long term. So I kept it. As for Mcleod Russ I was advised to look for sector leaders such as Tata Tea quoting at 800-900 then. I was uncomfortable with the price and PE so I din't go for it.
McLeodruss, I was convinced about for one reason that it became owner of a tea brand which I like most since my childhood and marketed by HLL. But my experince with other holding kept me away from it. I had stopped monitoring my stock as seeing the same price was making me depressed.
Any way one day when I opened my computer I saw this going to Rs. 90. I almost fainted. After that I regained hope that it might come to the target price after all in time for redemption. But again the same story. When all market zoomed up like bullet train this fellow again resumed saintly postures.
Then in Feb 2006 I thought enough is enough. I can not bear the imbecility of this stock and decided that once one year is complete I will sell it off. As soon as I decided this stock started running again. So in March 2006 it covered distance of 72 Rs. and closed at 162. Now I was almost intoxicated.
More than 100% gain was good enough for me. Then It fell back to 140. It again announced similar dividend. I told my mother that on completion of one year I will remove this from my portfolio.March to April this stock fell to 125 whereas market gathered momentum. Everybody was giving tips. So I thought, I am only unlucky guy. Most of the stocks in my watch list since 2005 had gained 7 time to 20 times and I paper invested. But seeing gains of 100 % in my stocks I was happy. Then came 12th May 2006. Nifty dropped dead. For next 10 days it continued like that. Almost all stocks on long term basis showed decline. But decline was confined to the gains that accrued during Jan to May first week. So I was not unduly alarmed.Except one or two which I invested in Jan2005.
This particular stock was giving me surprise. For four days that nifty was in free fall this was in upper circuit. Once again it reached 165 and hovered around it. Nifty had lost 15% by that time. Slowly the bear onslaught took hold of this stock and now it is at 102 only. But only few weeks ago it was at the same stage. So I feel that it shed what it gained during last leg of rally but still abovewhat it was one or two months ago( Rs. 90) . Perhaps, I became too greedy or too confident. Though my time frame was achieved and target was also more than achieved I kept hoping for more.Discipline in investment and also in trade is a must. I have revisited FA and was of the opinion that it could be continued. But the cash was for short term only. I have to reinvest in PPF the appreciated amount as originally planned.Time is still there till March 2007.
This particular stock has helped me in analysing my pschological states,fear, greed , anticipation of rise, calculating dividend % FA and TA. But most of all it taught me to be standing on your own legs and not to wait for crutches from others. It also told me if you are convinced about your Ideas go for it. never hesitate. Almost all stocks have moved in cyclical pattern. If something is at 52 week low but if FA is good it will reach its 52 wk high.It may fall again. So you decide what you want to do with it. You have to own up your decision and face the consequences and also enjoy the fruits of it. It has given rights offer at much less price so I decided to invest in it.
I have bored you enough with it. But this is true of most of the investors.
You may like to comment or criticise my decisions . Feel free to do that.I wanted to tell all this without naming the stock which has now been upgraded to a target of 300 for next year. I am confused.
Thanks for bearing with me for such a boring story. I know I am not a good story teller.
Pankaj
I am going to tell one story
Tale of One Stock:
One fine morning on Sunday in April 2005, I was enjoying morning cup of tea and reading BusinessLine. Indices were on highs and I was feeling left out. I was unwilling to invest at current level as I was thinking that market is overpriced. While reading The newspaper I glanced through Investment advice column. After reading their ideas for investment, I was struck by one of their choice. I never heard of that name. So going through details, I thought would it be goo idea to invest in this. I had some small amount from PPF withdrawal. I had saved for Income tax and then in April had withdrawn some amount ( once in a year it is permitted).
So I searched through NSE and BSE website. Found that It is listed on NSE but not on BSE. Checked its Financials and found better. Had reserves. Sector ,it was operating in, was an outperformer. The stock did not seem highly priced. The day it was recommended, it was quoting at Rs. 40/- Nice new Investor mentality to own more number of shares at less price. While reading about the company, I also found that it is a subsidiary of Multinational operating in its own right.
All reaserch took some time. Remember I had just become the member of Traderji.com and had practically little idea about investment except that I took the plunge on 17th May 2004. Well , one day I saw the price going to Rs. 60 from rs. 40 in two days. BL had given a target of Rs. 150-180 for a year. So I become interested and brought 500 of that stock at Rs. 58+Brokerage+STT/stock.
Naturally I started monitoring it daily in my portfolio and on NSE website. While all my other investments were for three year perspective , it was for one year. Partly to avoid Short Term Capital Gains Tax (10%)and to reinvest the same in PPF while making further withdrawal thereby saving cool 15% in taxes. I fixed my target at Rs. 140.
I saw all others stocks moving up but this perticular stock refused to budge. I lost my hope and started reading SAINT's thread and AMIT and Supratik and Karthik's thread more vigourously.
. But my hopes were dashed by this stocks. Even though its fundamentals were good, it was as immobile as it could be. One fine morning I heard the news of 21% dividend. You could imagine the joy I felt. The amount was small but I felt as if I have extracted my pound of flesh. The stock was hovering in red sometimes in green, it shot up. A cool Rs.3 upmove in one day. Again next day and the next day till it reached 75. Thereafter one day it fell to Rs. 70. I was curious. I found that day was ex date for getting dividend. For some days stock was in no delivery period.
Any way I was happy by the little gains. By July, I got may cheque and I promptly deposited in the bank. It covered my cost of demat etc. Any way stock resumed its saintly posture and stopped reacting to my fervant prayers for gains. I also cursed BL for giving such an Idea.Rest of the stocks were flying and this was limping
.I kept my patience , however. The I learnet about indicators and started applying them on this stocks. No amount of TA/FA could prod this stock into moving. Kept moving in a range of 70-75. Any way I was not in loss and full six months were to be covered.
One day Sometime in october I saw market take a breather. But this stock did not budge. The I realised that this is stone even for bears and I am , at least , safe with it.
One of the member started a thread on Bollinger Bands dear Mohan. So I applied that and immediately saw that its going into squeeze. One more stock I identified was Mcleod Russel then quoting at 67. So I put this query in the forum. Mohan confirmed that it is in bollinger band. I did not ask about the stock I was holding.Once I remember asking SAINT for it when I was at my wits end. His advise was to hold for long term. So I kept it. As for Mcleod Russ I was advised to look for sector leaders such as Tata Tea quoting at 800-900 then. I was uncomfortable with the price and PE so I din't go for it.
McLeodruss, I was convinced about for one reason that it became owner of a tea brand which I like most since my childhood and marketed by HLL. But my experince with other holding kept me away from it. I had stopped monitoring my stock as seeing the same price was making me depressed.
Any way one day when I opened my computer I saw this going to Rs. 90. I almost fainted. After that I regained hope that it might come to the target price after all in time for redemption. But again the same story. When all market zoomed up like bullet train this fellow again resumed saintly postures
.Then in Feb 2006 I thought enough is enough. I can not bear the imbecility of this stock and decided that once one year is complete I will sell it off. As soon as I decided this stock started running again. So in March 2006 it covered distance of 72 Rs. and closed at 162. Now I was almost intoxicated.
More than 100% gain was good enough for me. Then It fell back to 140. It again announced similar dividend. I told my mother that on completion of one year I will remove this from my portfolio.March to April this stock fell to 125 whereas market gathered momentum. Everybody was giving tips. So I thought, I am only unlucky guy. Most of the stocks in my watch list since 2005 had gained 7 time to 20 times and I paper invested. But seeing gains of 100 % in my stocks I was happy. Then came 12th May 2006. Nifty dropped dead. For next 10 days it continued like that. Almost all stocks on long term basis showed decline. But decline was confined to the gains that accrued during Jan to May first week. So I was not unduly alarmed.Except one or two which I invested in Jan2005.
This particular stock was giving me surprise. For four days that nifty was in free fall this was in upper circuit. Once again it reached 165 and hovered around it. Nifty had lost 15% by that time. Slowly the bear onslaught took hold of this stock and now it is at 102 only. But only few weeks ago it was at the same stage. So I feel that it shed what it gained during last leg of rally but still abovewhat it was one or two months ago( Rs. 90) . Perhaps, I became too greedy or too confident. Though my time frame was achieved and target was also more than achieved I kept hoping for more.Discipline in investment and also in trade is a must. I have revisited FA and was of the opinion that it could be continued. But the cash was for short term only. I have to reinvest in PPF the appreciated amount as originally planned.Time is still there till March 2007.
This particular stock has helped me in analysing my pschological states,fear, greed , anticipation of rise, calculating dividend % FA and TA. But most of all it taught me to be standing on your own legs and not to wait for crutches from others. It also told me if you are convinced about your Ideas go for it. never hesitate. Almost all stocks have moved in cyclical pattern. If something is at 52 week low but if FA is good it will reach its 52 wk high.It may fall again. So you decide what you want to do with it. You have to own up your decision and face the consequences and also enjoy the fruits of it. It has given rights offer at much less price so I decided to invest in it.
I have bored you enough with it. But this is true of most of the investors.
You may like to comment or criticise my decisions . Feel free to do that.I wanted to tell all this without naming the stock which has now been upgraded to a target of 300 for next year. I am confused.
Thanks for bearing with me for such a boring story. I know I am not a good story teller.
Pankaj
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