The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then
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pkjha30 said:
But when things are smoothened people who are euphoric tend to get delirious on unabated rise without realising that it is unsustainable. When we see normal scale we tend to get frightened and then think if it is really reflecting the growth or if it is sustainable. But then that is what analyst tend to hide from us. And need to be careful.
pankaj
pankaj
pankaj, you rightly said analysts do wants to hide things from us. but thats normal for them to do. they have their agendas. and thats exactly where knowledge rules.
when you look at the charts you have the luxury of an unbiased analysis. the price data does not lies. its upto you how you interpret those data's.
opinions differs. everybody has his or her say.
only time can say who is right or wrong. but one thing for sure the market is never wrong.
and by the way we are having a shani-mangal affair out there. astro gazing, anyone?
Hi
Monday opening is weak as expected. Going by the trend in global market,Sensex and nifty would be meandering in a listless ways but on the weaker side.As no clue to direction has emerged. I suppose this should be good for the market as it will allow both long and shorts to take one or two extra days off and consolidate. However , I don't expect any direction to emerge till the end of this month.On Corporate front,good news and announcements of bonuses and splits are intended to bring back positive sentiments. It will be so only if FROGs croacks and FIIs invest in a manifest way.Though they are into the market in a small ways but otherwise their statements form institutions such as Goldman sachs , Porgan stanlay, merril lynch and few others do not add to the confidence which has plummeted to low level.
There are two ways to look at things from ordinary perspective. First way is that such a precipitious decline in the market is result of prices running ahead of itself and fundamentals did not support such rise. Second , After such a rise a period of decline is not unwarranted and is infact good for consolidation. The steepness of fall is explained by the swiftness of profit booking by FIIs and many FII which wanted to enter India tried the market to bring back to the level they perceive "enterable". This has implied assumption that fundamentals are good and once this period of uncertainty is gone market will pick up. The trailers of gyrations are shown to the world media last week.
I personally hold the second view. If that is correct then market should see support arround these levels and may not go down to 7600 or 5000 levels which are likely in a bear market. We might see one quarter of uncertain period before moving northward. As far as I am concerned, it is my firm vew that sensex has no onther way to for a long long time except in the eventuality ofindian defeat at the hands of our enemy countries or long periods of political turmoil and civil strife.
Pankaj
Monday opening is weak as expected. Going by the trend in global market,Sensex and nifty would be meandering in a listless ways but on the weaker side.As no clue to direction has emerged. I suppose this should be good for the market as it will allow both long and shorts to take one or two extra days off and consolidate. However , I don't expect any direction to emerge till the end of this month.On Corporate front,good news and announcements of bonuses and splits are intended to bring back positive sentiments. It will be so only if FROGs croacks and FIIs invest in a manifest way.Though they are into the market in a small ways but otherwise their statements form institutions such as Goldman sachs , Porgan stanlay, merril lynch and few others do not add to the confidence which has plummeted to low level.
There are two ways to look at things from ordinary perspective. First way is that such a precipitious decline in the market is result of prices running ahead of itself and fundamentals did not support such rise. Second , After such a rise a period of decline is not unwarranted and is infact good for consolidation. The steepness of fall is explained by the swiftness of profit booking by FIIs and many FII which wanted to enter India tried the market to bring back to the level they perceive "enterable". This has implied assumption that fundamentals are good and once this period of uncertainty is gone market will pick up. The trailers of gyrations are shown to the world media last week.
I personally hold the second view. If that is correct then market should see support arround these levels and may not go down to 7600 or 5000 levels which are likely in a bear market. We might see one quarter of uncertain period before moving northward. As far as I am concerned, it is my firm vew that sensex has no onther way to for a long long time except in the eventuality ofindian defeat at the hands of our enemy countries or long periods of political turmoil and civil strife.
Pankaj
Hi
Except taiwan, china and NZ rest in Asia -pacific(Yahoo reported) are currently showing listless tendencies on weaker side. Don't follow Pakistan. Good for us on second thought.
for investors , there are stocks which shows the criterion of uptrend for more than three days. This may not indicate buy given the broad market weakness, this certainly put them in watch list for long term investment.The stocks which showed strength and character during this fall certainly merits closer scrutiny for thier business models, profitability, growth areas, future plans,cash flow, ronw and roce, management etc. Karthik and supratik and nkp would like to review cases of such stocks then it would be a good pointer to various things. related to investment decisions.
Pankaj
Except taiwan, china and NZ rest in Asia -pacific(Yahoo reported) are currently showing listless tendencies on weaker side. Don't follow Pakistan. Good for us on second thought.
for investors , there are stocks which shows the criterion of uptrend for more than three days. This may not indicate buy given the broad market weakness, this certainly put them in watch list for long term investment.The stocks which showed strength and character during this fall certainly merits closer scrutiny for thier business models, profitability, growth areas, future plans,cash flow, ronw and roce, management etc. Karthik and supratik and nkp would like to review cases of such stocks then it would be a good pointer to various things. related to investment decisions.
Pankaj
Hi Satya
You are right. The feds are increasing interest rates since the days of Alanspan, the Green from .5%(I think, may be corrected) to the present level . Every time the rise is 0.25% Sam concernes are raised everytime since 2001. We are also following them in their footsteps like a worthy follower. Now Bernanke, the Ben ( not of big ben variety) has given similar troubles so much so that market has discounted it. I think once that is over we will start worrying for the next and the next and so on.
Same story dear. It holds for short and intermediate term. It is related to money supply and tightenening liquidity, concerns on inflation and cheap money, overheated and unsustainable growth of economy( only economists worry about more growth a paradoxical approach politicians are not fond of)
Moreover economy grows despite plethora of economists ruling the roost. Remember, it was Rajiv Gandhi ,who first talked about liberalisation and he was not economist. PC , MM and NR including others just claimed the credit.
Even, left don't want to be seen left. So they are right in wooing the capitalists including Ratan Tata, who was a novice when he took charge of TISCo from Russy Modi way back and now is a legend in his own right. On a long term basis it is a one way street for india. with Ben or without Ben
FIIs have realised it are staying invested. Their talks are just that..talks. they are able to manipulate because of so many reasons. That's why we are talking about them now.
pankaj
You are right. The feds are increasing interest rates since the days of Alanspan, the Green from .5%(I think, may be corrected) to the present level . Every time the rise is 0.25% Sam concernes are raised everytime since 2001. We are also following them in their footsteps like a worthy follower. Now Bernanke, the Ben ( not of big ben variety) has given similar troubles so much so that market has discounted it. I think once that is over we will start worrying for the next and the next and so on.
Same story dear. It holds for short and intermediate term. It is related to money supply and tightenening liquidity, concerns on inflation and cheap money, overheated and unsustainable growth of economy( only economists worry about more growth a paradoxical approach politicians are not fond of)
Moreover economy grows despite plethora of economists ruling the roost. Remember, it was Rajiv Gandhi ,who first talked about liberalisation and he was not economist. PC , MM and NR including others just claimed the credit.
Even, left don't want to be seen left. So they are right in wooing the capitalists including Ratan Tata, who was a novice when he took charge of TISCo from Russy Modi way back and now is a legend in his own right. On a long term basis it is a one way street for india. with Ben or without Ben
FIIs have realised it are staying invested. Their talks are just that..talks. they are able to manipulate because of so many reasons. That's why we are talking about them now.
pankaj
Hi
Sorry Friends. I was little late in posting about FIIs
Here's SEBI figure
Reporting Date---Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) ---Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)--- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
19-JUN-2006 --- 2920.30 ---2260.70--- 659.50 ---145.20
And NSE figures
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy ---Value--- Sell Value ---Net Value 19-Jun-2006 ---1051.07 ---1078.80 ---(-27.73 )
And our MFs
Transaction Date--- Gross Purchases--- Gross Sales--- Net Purchases / Sales
16.06.06--- 517.62--- 597.25--- -79.63
Well , sebi figures are quite huge and appears to be reporting about block deals or off market transactions which get reported after a week only.
If we take nse figures as having reliable impact on the market then the strong close ( last price was significantly higher than the average closing price) then quite naturally some are interested in keeping the market up. May be off market transactions are known to some and not to ordinary investors.
However immediately one thing becomes noticeable is that FII and MF bot are light in the market. Their volume was very low and this was keeping the volume subdued.
Global Market
China India , Taiwan and NZ closed in green but others managed to stay in red.
On the other hand investors in Europe has shown courage and were green with envy. They cannot hope to beat the gyrations of BSE./nifty.
Dow and nasdaq started out with red now. At the time of writing it Nasdaq was going into green territory. So they are just about maintaining the poise. How it will end today will decide the sentiments in bse/nifty tomorrow. May be todays close was largely aided by recovery in european market.
Well , one question was raised elsewhere that if fed rates are a known factor and moving money costs more that the rate hike, why money will be moved from emerging markets.
Well the answer is not in one factor alone.
Its the overall risk perception, return over a period of time. The cost of moving money is not as great as it is shown. In fact it may not be significant. yet money does not move when market seems to plunge. Smart money moves out well in advance at the slightest hint of trouble. It is also valled hot money. Suppose if they moved out in bulk in April and them in one week in may. Thereafter it is quite subdued.
However, the amount of money moved out is not significant in relation to the invested amount in India.This monkey business will go on for quite some time.
Market today and for last few days has shown some positive signs. But the aftershocks will continue to come. The directions are not yet clear at least to me. I still feel it will trade in the range of 9500 to 10500 for quite some time before resuming its northward march. Even if , it goes down to 8500 level ( seems quite unlikely) that will present the opportunity for long term buy. Fear is the factor by which we do not get into the mode of buying when burnt badly.. So we tend to buy high when we feel assured, positive.
No I am not saying that is is a buy . I say do you know your stocks? First know and asses it and then wait for trend to change. Buy when you are comfortable. What I say will not be applicable at all to penny stocks. Many will move much higher but then the risk factor should be clearly understood.
The stocks you want to buy should have some criteria for trading volume, price band , volatality and indices participation. These should be used to screen them in addition to some of the parameters mentioned on FA.
Let the dust outside settle down and then we should be ready.
Pankaj
Sorry Friends. I was little late in posting about FIIs
Here's SEBI figure
Reporting Date---Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) ---Gross Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)--- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
19-JUN-2006 --- 2920.30 ---2260.70--- 659.50 ---145.20
And NSE figures
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy ---Value--- Sell Value ---Net Value 19-Jun-2006 ---1051.07 ---1078.80 ---(-27.73 )
And our MFs
Transaction Date--- Gross Purchases--- Gross Sales--- Net Purchases / Sales
16.06.06--- 517.62--- 597.25--- -79.63
Well , sebi figures are quite huge and appears to be reporting about block deals or off market transactions which get reported after a week only.
If we take nse figures as having reliable impact on the market then the strong close ( last price was significantly higher than the average closing price) then quite naturally some are interested in keeping the market up. May be off market transactions are known to some and not to ordinary investors.
However immediately one thing becomes noticeable is that FII and MF bot are light in the market. Their volume was very low and this was keeping the volume subdued.
Global Market
China India , Taiwan and NZ closed in green but others managed to stay in red.
On the other hand investors in Europe has shown courage and were green with envy. They cannot hope to beat the gyrations of BSE./nifty.
Dow and nasdaq started out with red now. At the time of writing it Nasdaq was going into green territory. So they are just about maintaining the poise. How it will end today will decide the sentiments in bse/nifty tomorrow. May be todays close was largely aided by recovery in european market.
Well , one question was raised elsewhere that if fed rates are a known factor and moving money costs more that the rate hike, why money will be moved from emerging markets.
Well the answer is not in one factor alone.
Its the overall risk perception, return over a period of time. The cost of moving money is not as great as it is shown. In fact it may not be significant. yet money does not move when market seems to plunge. Smart money moves out well in advance at the slightest hint of trouble. It is also valled hot money. Suppose if they moved out in bulk in April and them in one week in may. Thereafter it is quite subdued.
However, the amount of money moved out is not significant in relation to the invested amount in India.This monkey business will go on for quite some time.
Market today and for last few days has shown some positive signs. But the aftershocks will continue to come. The directions are not yet clear at least to me. I still feel it will trade in the range of 9500 to 10500 for quite some time before resuming its northward march. Even if , it goes down to 8500 level ( seems quite unlikely) that will present the opportunity for long term buy. Fear is the factor by which we do not get into the mode of buying when burnt badly.. So we tend to buy high when we feel assured, positive.
No I am not saying that is is a buy . I say do you know your stocks? First know and asses it and then wait for trend to change. Buy when you are comfortable. What I say will not be applicable at all to penny stocks. Many will move much higher but then the risk factor should be clearly understood.
The stocks you want to buy should have some criteria for trading volume, price band , volatality and indices participation. These should be used to screen them in addition to some of the parameters mentioned on FA.
Let the dust outside settle down and then we should be ready.
Pankaj
Hi
Just a brief update
Dow and Nasdaq went into deep red and then tried to recover part of it. Currently at .53% for nasdaq and .48% for dow.
Shows quite weakness. If manages to touch the opening line then may be Indian stocks could have respite or else it should be mildly down.
This only shows investor sentiments are so negative that nothing is able to enthuse them.
Pankaj
Just a brief update
Dow and Nasdaq went into deep red and then tried to recover part of it. Currently at .53% for nasdaq and .48% for dow.
Shows quite weakness. If manages to touch the opening line then may be Indian stocks could have respite or else it should be mildly down.
This only shows investor sentiments are so negative that nothing is able to enthuse them.
Pankaj
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