The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then
- Thread starter pkjha30
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Hi
I just wanted to update on the story of my stock.
It fell from the peak by approximately 60 Rs. That was 40% fall , a gain accrued during April amd May was lost. But it was 10Rs. higher than the target price. It stayed above 102. Now it has gained 20 rs. in last week.
I have realised one thing. If you are in profit you don't tend to sell and protect your profit. You may have purchased with a short term objective but profit makes you long term investor. Well I didn't sell so I became a long term investor forgetting the cardinal principle of investing :-Stick to your goals and follow discipline. Not that I regret it now. Its just that I didn't need money.
Loss will make you short term investor and you will tend to sell loss making portfolio which was meant for long term investment.This contrasts with loss aversion in normal situation.
Both only highlights Fear and greed factors, common pitfalls for any lay investors. NKP reported somewhere that he booked profit when crossed 2.5 lakh as he felt uncomfortable. The stocks in my portfolio , except the recent acquisitions, have shown remarkable resilience and these hardly fell below my imaginary stop losses.In fact all of them are trading higher than the 52Wk high when I got them.
Lessons are going on and there is no stopping of learning at any time.
Pankaj
I just wanted to update on the story of my stock.
It fell from the peak by approximately 60 Rs. That was 40% fall , a gain accrued during April amd May was lost. But it was 10Rs. higher than the target price. It stayed above 102. Now it has gained 20 rs. in last week.
I have realised one thing. If you are in profit you don't tend to sell and protect your profit. You may have purchased with a short term objective but profit makes you long term investor. Well I didn't sell so I became a long term investor forgetting the cardinal principle of investing :-Stick to your goals and follow discipline. Not that I regret it now. Its just that I didn't need money.
Loss will make you short term investor and you will tend to sell loss making portfolio which was meant for long term investment.This contrasts with loss aversion in normal situation.
Both only highlights Fear and greed factors, common pitfalls for any lay investors. NKP reported somewhere that he booked profit when crossed 2.5 lakh as he felt uncomfortable. The stocks in my portfolio , except the recent acquisitions, have shown remarkable resilience and these hardly fell below my imaginary stop losses.In fact all of them are trading higher than the 52Wk high when I got them.
Lessons are going on and there is no stopping of learning at any time.
Pankaj
Dear Pankaj .
It is always a delightful rewarding and satisfying experience to read your "optimistic" posts on India's growth story being intact. As you pointed out in some other posts , all others ( FIIs ) believe in India Story , only we Indians need to believe .
Keep up your good work.
regards
Vinsu
It is always a delightful rewarding and satisfying experience to read your "optimistic" posts on India's growth story being intact. As you pointed out in some other posts , all others ( FIIs ) believe in India Story , only we Indians need to believe .
Keep up your good work.
regards
Vinsu
pkjha30 said:
Hi
Continuing with the main theme of FIIs and FROGs , here's some interesting take from
Full interview is here http://markets.moneycontrol.com/india/news/marketoutlook/davidfullerglobalstrategist/20072008likelytobeextremelybullishyrsfullermoney/market/stocks/article/221095
pankaj
Continuing with the main theme of FIIs and FROGs , here's some interesting take from
Full interview is here http://markets.moneycontrol.com/india/news/marketoutlook/davidfullerglobalstrategist/20072008likelytobeextremelybullishyrsfullermoney/market/stocks/article/221095
pankaj
Does this interview implies that there shall be a Bear Market till October End . I suspect the timing of this interview now and still dont understand how October end will provide the right buying oppurtunities .
Regards
Vinsu Japan
Dear vinsu
I don't know frankly. I put it here to elicite response from all. You can review the areticle and tell your views.
In any case, In India September onwards August season starts and first quarter results get fully factored in so that is the time whem positive sentiments will firmly take hold. You also know that I believe that it is no bear market. Retracement or correction call what you may. Its opportunity to get good stocks.
Pankaj
I don't know frankly. I put it here to elicite response from all. You can review the areticle and tell your views.
In any case, In India September onwards August season starts and first quarter results get fully factored in so that is the time whem positive sentiments will firmly take hold. You also know that I believe that it is no bear market. Retracement or correction call what you may. Its opportunity to get good stocks.
Pankaj
pkjha30 said:
Dear vinsu
I don't know frankly. I put it here to elicite response from all. You can review the areticle and tell your views.
In any case, In India September onwards August season starts and first quarter results get fully factored in so that is the time whem positive sentiments will firmly take hold. You also know that I believe that it is no bear market. Retracement or correction call what you may. Its opportunity to get good stocks.
Pankaj
I don't know frankly. I put it here to elicite response from all. You can review the areticle and tell your views.
In any case, In India September onwards August season starts and first quarter results get fully factored in so that is the time whem positive sentiments will firmly take hold. You also know that I believe that it is no bear market. Retracement or correction call what you may. Its opportunity to get good stocks.
Pankaj
That was exactly my point. Here we are ( u ,me & like minded people ) who believe in India Story and take till "fall" as correction to collect good stocks when the buying time comes . Your FII figures posted regulary do indicate that the FII are buying under the table ( they are talking about over-valuations from the mouth , but buying slowly ).
This interview i take as an effort to put forward the idea that this "bear market " may continue till October End, so as to create more buying oppurtunities on the way for our FII friends .
And for the results season , how do you think , Second Quarter results might do some damage control .
regards
Vinsu Japan
That timing is such that it would give rise to suspicion. Therefore ,I have also given something from Jubak who had earlier given the theory regarding japan , liquidity and risk perception in emerging market and earning over-estimation in EMs.
As for the result season , that is going to be stock and sector specific. traditionally oil related companies producers, marketeers refiners all will be under tremendous pressure. Banks may not do well if interest rates keep going up as loan disbursal will be reduced. NPA may then increase. Working capital interest will be higher. Companies are mostly sitting on huge funds. They may not go for big dividends as in the past but use the cash to fund their growth. Margins will be under pressure for Banks.
Commodities are in long term upswing and somwwhere I read it is 3rd year of six year cycle so another three year. But I think it is picking up. Retail space is yet to be explored. FIIs have beeb permitted with certain caveat. This may see growth but fraught with uncertainties. FMCG has attracted attention now. Brands have occupied center stage. So they will show good. particularly HLL ITC.
Infrastructure will be fine. Capital goods and engineering companies should do well if growth rate continues but if demands fall in overseas market we may see below expectation performance. So lower your expectation. However Govt. speding is slated to go up on big projects. You see when politicians feel euphoric they spend money on bigger projects and bigger welfare schemes. State Govts are flushed with fresh funds from many sources other than taxes. So feel good factor will continue for some more years.
In short, result for both first and second quarters will be better than average in some sectors with large cap showing better than expected results. Mid caps and smlcps will also show good results. But for last two years they had good run . that may not continue and pressure of increased charges on funds will tell on their margins. Only those who improve their bottomline will manage better than expected result. AS expectations are huge for them they may be underperformer.
Well well I am not a pro. So any sentence that looks like pro please disregard.
pankaj
As for the result season , that is going to be stock and sector specific. traditionally oil related companies producers, marketeers refiners all will be under tremendous pressure. Banks may not do well if interest rates keep going up as loan disbursal will be reduced. NPA may then increase. Working capital interest will be higher. Companies are mostly sitting on huge funds. They may not go for big dividends as in the past but use the cash to fund their growth. Margins will be under pressure for Banks.
Commodities are in long term upswing and somwwhere I read it is 3rd year of six year cycle so another three year. But I think it is picking up. Retail space is yet to be explored. FIIs have beeb permitted with certain caveat. This may see growth but fraught with uncertainties. FMCG has attracted attention now. Brands have occupied center stage. So they will show good. particularly HLL ITC.
Infrastructure will be fine. Capital goods and engineering companies should do well if growth rate continues but if demands fall in overseas market we may see below expectation performance. So lower your expectation. However Govt. speding is slated to go up on big projects. You see when politicians feel euphoric they spend money on bigger projects and bigger welfare schemes. State Govts are flushed with fresh funds from many sources other than taxes. So feel good factor will continue for some more years.
In short, result for both first and second quarters will be better than average in some sectors with large cap showing better than expected results. Mid caps and smlcps will also show good results. But for last two years they had good run . that may not continue and pressure of increased charges on funds will tell on their margins. Only those who improve their bottomline will manage better than expected result. AS expectations are huge for them they may be underperformer.
Well well I am not a pro. So any sentence that looks like pro please disregard.
pankaj
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Dear pankaj .
I was and continue to be zapped by your immense knowledge and take on various sectors of the Indian Economy. I am very new to the stock market and had been overseas for more than 9 years. Over the years i have seen and read India growing . Now being in the stock markets and being a part of this forum, i have begun to understand a bit about our economy and the growth that lies ahead of it .
Hats off to you.
regards
Vinsu Japan
I was and continue to be zapped by your immense knowledge and take on various sectors of the Indian Economy. I am very new to the stock market and had been overseas for more than 9 years. Over the years i have seen and read India growing . Now being in the stock markets and being a part of this forum, i have begun to understand a bit about our economy and the growth that lies ahead of it .
Hats off to you.
regards
Vinsu Japan
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