The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then
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Hi
Here's the figure for NSE+BSE
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy Value--- Sell Value--- Net Value
21-Jun-2006--- 907.58--- 1118.19---- (-210.61)
Here's the figure from SEBI
Reporting Date ----Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)----- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)---- Net Investment (Rs Crores)---- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
21-JUN-2006---- 1281.60---- 1481.20--- (199.60)----- (44.00)
Mutual Funds
Reporting Date -- Purchases(Rs Crores) --- Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)
20.06.06---220.11----282.07----(-61.96)
So that's the story. When sentiments are turning positive FIIs are quitely selling. This seems to be a pattern. Is it part of bull-bear trap where both are decimated in a systematic way? May be it is part of consolidation. But in any case it is FII market where FIIs are playing out their script. For me it simply means that investors may have to wait and watch to invest in small quantity in those script which exhibit fundamental strength and resilience.
Further there may be FII dumping some stoks and accumulating select few. This may be further analysed. It may need data on details of FII purchase. If somebody is aware of the link I would be happy to try to see micro activities and present the conlusions with data.
Pankaj
Sorry folks. I was late as some guests had to be entertained.
Here's the figure for NSE+BSE
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date--- Buy Value--- Sell Value--- Net Value
21-Jun-2006--- 907.58--- 1118.19---- (-210.61)
Here's the figure from SEBI
Reporting Date ----Gross Purchases(Rs Crores)----- Gross Sales(Rs Crores)---- Net Investment (Rs Crores)---- Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
21-JUN-2006---- 1281.60---- 1481.20--- (199.60)----- (44.00)
Mutual Funds
Reporting Date -- Purchases(Rs Crores) --- Sales(Rs Crores)--- Net Investment (Rs Crores)
20.06.06---220.11----282.07----(-61.96)
So that's the story. When sentiments are turning positive FIIs are quitely selling. This seems to be a pattern. Is it part of bull-bear trap where both are decimated in a systematic way? May be it is part of consolidation. But in any case it is FII market where FIIs are playing out their script. For me it simply means that investors may have to wait and watch to invest in small quantity in those script which exhibit fundamental strength and resilience.
Further there may be FII dumping some stoks and accumulating select few. This may be further analysed. It may need data on details of FII purchase. If somebody is aware of the link I would be happy to try to see micro activities and present the conlusions with data.
Pankaj
Sorry folks. I was late as some guests had to be entertained.
Hi
It so happened twice that when I wrote some piece and I had to attend to urgent works and quit without saving or posting .
When I was writing FII details one guest came who was with me till 10.00PM So I had to leave half work . When I came I completed my post and just posted it without seeing MIA reports. Extremely sorry and I apologise for the delay..
Pankaj
hi all,
I have heard from my friend that today both FII and mutual are net seller so who buys today. Specially small cap 200 stock in upper circuit can u belive?
So it looks to be a good signal . So ready for the big rally for tommorow. I think 300+ . Where is dada? we need u Is FII net seller today?
I think market will move up till 27. after that if interest is not incresed then in july it could touch 12400 again .
Happy trading
Ahmed
I have heard from my friend that today both FII and mutual are net seller so who buys today. Specially small cap 200 stock in upper circuit can u belive?
So it looks to be a good signal
. So ready for the big rally for tommorow. I think 300+ . Where is dada? we need u Is FII net seller today?I think market will move up till 27. after that if interest is not incresed then in july it could touch 12400 again
.Happy trading
Ahmed
mahmeds2000 said:
hi all,
I have heard from my friend that today both FII and mutual are net seller so who buys today. Specially small cap 200 stock in upper circuit can u belive?
So it looks to be a good signal . So ready for the big rally for tommorow. I think 300+ . Where is dada? we need u Is FII net seller today?
I think market will move up till 27. after that if interest is not incresed then in july it could touch 12400 again .
Happy trading
Ahmed
I have heard from my friend that today both FII and mutual are net seller so who buys today. Specially small cap 200 stock in upper circuit can u belive?
So it looks to be a good signal
. So ready for the big rally for tommorow. I think 300+ . Where is dada? we need u Is FII net seller today?I think market will move up till 27. after that if interest is not incresed then in july it could touch 12400 again .
Happy trading
Ahmed
I have given FII data for today in previous post. They were net seller. Even MFs were net seller.The volume was not great or convincing. I think they are dumping some stocks and accumulating some. Will try to find micro details at the earlies.
Your intuition abt tomorrow's trade may be correct.
Let us see the global cues.
Wherever I looked I saw sea of sea green algae floating on the ocean of Stock markets worldwide. Taiwan and AFRICA were the only exception.
As I have remarked thatSENSEX dances to the western tune, you will be happy to note that Stock markets in USA are on free run tonight. Its ALL LIQUOR DAY.
DOW is currently at 11,115.56 (11:41PM IST) up 140.72 points (1.28%)
NASDAQ is cool 2.38% up 1,583.20 (11:41PM IST) 34.87 points (2.25%)
Europe also closed stronger as Latin America. Jakarta was little weak.
USA Stocks are showing strength as if there is no tomorrow. Tomorrow Indian stockmarket will open much stronger and I doubt if there will be any downswing. Must be closing cool six to eight points up. You also might get the headlines that biggest rise of the sensex in a decade. Crossing 10000 and closing above it is a major psychological boost. So it will help propel sensex near 10600 or more. Let us see.
This will certainly boost investor sentiments so that retails will get in . The only worrying aspect is FIIs have not increased their purchase on net basis. Another aspect is : as investors are showing more interest in USA stocks should it not adversely impact EMs? As hot money will move out to these less risky and low growth market.
Time will only tell .We will keep vigil. Tomorrow's upswing should not be taken as a call to enter but to watch what is consolidating.
Pankaj
C
no worries dada, we really appreciate your inputs so dedicatedly daily... "atithee devo bhavah" absolutely no need for apology, you make us look bad, lol... thanks.
My view for tomo, dont get caught up in morning exuberance, A trap is being laid, today we definately ignored global market, might happen the other way tomo. Though the operators are making it a point to control the so complained high volatility. Lul b4 the storm I guess... I would sell my longs in a gap up tomo... just my views...
My view for tomo, dont get caught up in morning exuberance, A trap is being laid, today we definately ignored global market, might happen the other way tomo. Though the operators are making it a point to control the so complained high volatility. Lul b4 the storm I guess... I would sell my longs in a gap up tomo... just my views...
Hi
Finally, Dow closed little lower than its day's highest point(11131) but 104 point up(0.95%)
Nasdaq closed 1.63% up a tad lower(1546) than its day's highest point(1585.86).
It looked like a parabolic curve. That means it had weakness towards end as if loosing momentum. This tapering off will not have its impact on sensex today but as czar said tomorrow will be crucial. May be like a stone thrown upward , it might take a plunge downward. But today it will open and stay positive.
In my opinion it is a problematic situation as if FIIs are quitely selling when retail buying emerges then it may be a setup for future downtrend. In case FIIs are not done selling their portfolio certainly they would like to sell and cover when investor confidence returns albit temporarily before it takes a hit upon realisation.
The sum of all things is that dust is yet to be settled and clarity is yet to emerge.We will be range bound as already indicated . Gyrations of sensex gives impression that it is swinging wildly in the winds like grass. But then like grass it is more likely to survive and become greener once it looses fat. Good for the grazers for long time.
One pattern has been detected till now is that when retail investor confidence is at its highest FIIs are first quitely selling and then in huge volumes. When confidence hits low they are buying.. This pattern is frequent and earlier I had talked abut time lag in showing effect of buy and sell of FIIs. They may be exploiting this factor to their advantage. Where do this leave us small time investors who become long term on profit and short term on loss and end up loosing perhaps most. Clearly , stock market if now FII driven. Lot of futures and derivatives in stocks, indices , participatory notes etc are aloowed to them. So they are able to cause these gyrations. Earlier this was caused by HM and them by KP and many more. Being desi manipulators they were easy to pin down and bring to their senses. Some time ago SEBI had passed order against UBS (FII) for its role in 2004 crash. But quitely that has been done away with.It is widely suspected that many FIIs are back channels for desi manipulators . So FIIs now hold the power to bring any regulatory authority to its dear senses and prevail upon them to stop all such activities. SEBI will also be content to pass orders on little fishes in the Pond. All this will pass as market phenomena. Therefore while we have to do a review of our practices and adopt best practices till such time it happens watch FIIs and swim accordingly or else get drowned in he FII vortex.
Now the question is what stocks in sensex /nifty are they selling and what else are they buying?? Surely they would not sell something which holds promise in future. May be once downward momentum starts they also start accumulating. If someone has this type of data , might like to share with us.
Pankaj
Finally, Dow closed little lower than its day's highest point(11131) but 104 point up(0.95%)
Nasdaq closed 1.63% up a tad lower(1546) than its day's highest point(1585.86).
It looked like a parabolic curve. That means it had weakness towards end as if loosing momentum. This tapering off will not have its impact on sensex today but as czar said tomorrow will be crucial. May be like a stone thrown upward , it might take a plunge downward. But today it will open and stay positive.
In my opinion it is a problematic situation as if FIIs are quitely selling when retail buying emerges then it may be a setup for future downtrend. In case FIIs are not done selling their portfolio certainly they would like to sell and cover when investor confidence returns albit temporarily before it takes a hit upon realisation.
The sum of all things is that dust is yet to be settled and clarity is yet to emerge.We will be range bound as already indicated . Gyrations of sensex gives impression that it is swinging wildly in the winds like grass. But then like grass it is more likely to survive and become greener once it looses fat. Good for the grazers for long time.
One pattern has been detected till now is that when retail investor confidence is at its highest FIIs are first quitely selling and then in huge volumes. When confidence hits low they are buying.. This pattern is frequent and earlier I had talked abut time lag in showing effect of buy and sell of FIIs. They may be exploiting this factor to their advantage. Where do this leave us small time investors who become long term on profit and short term on loss and end up loosing perhaps most. Clearly , stock market if now FII driven. Lot of futures and derivatives in stocks, indices , participatory notes etc are aloowed to them. So they are able to cause these gyrations. Earlier this was caused by HM and them by KP and many more. Being desi manipulators they were easy to pin down and bring to their senses. Some time ago SEBI had passed order against UBS (FII) for its role in 2004 crash. But quitely that has been done away with.It is widely suspected that many FIIs are back channels for desi manipulators . So FIIs now hold the power to bring any regulatory authority to its dear senses and prevail upon them to stop all such activities. SEBI will also be content to pass orders on little fishes in the Pond. All this will pass as market phenomena. Therefore while we have to do a review of our practices and adopt best practices till such time it happens watch FIIs and swim accordingly or else get drowned in he FII vortex.
Now the question is what stocks in sensex /nifty are they selling and what else are they buying?? Surely they would not sell something which holds promise in future. May be once downward momentum starts they also start accumulating. If someone has this type of data , might like to share with us.
Pankaj
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