The Crash( 17.5.2006) and FII activities since then

[karthikmarar]

.. The question is Though India is growing, will they kill the golden goose.

Pankaj

That is the main point, Pankaj. Fully agree with you. India is still a Golden Goose..though lost a few feathers recently The FIIs are too wise to kill it too soon.

is it a post or a newspaper?

vikas

Vikas If you cant make a good post at least dont criticize one.


Karthik

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

Thanks Karthik for your support.


Let us get to the point now.

Today FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 116 crores.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date---------- Buy Value---- Sell Value====- Net Value
29-May-2006-------- 938.18---- 1054.82==== -116.64

While sentiments have turned towards cautious optimism , market remains vilatile. As can be seen from FIIs trading activity their selling has reduced while they are not unlocking the cash box for purchase.

Thus market is meandering around like a river in the plains.
On Global and asian fronts no clues have emerged.It appeared that everybody is waiting for direction of market to emerge. Signals are not yet there.Of course thos who play smart will make money in any kind of market .But then all are not so smart.

Nifty volume was not all that great.
Traded Value (Rs. Crores) 5471.25 crs.
MFs will be exhausting there purchases. How long can they support it without the retun of the stranger and the prodigal son(retail Investor).

If positive direction does not emerge sentiments will take a further beating and going into june( first quarter earnings seasons) market will drift down further without FII support.

A feeling only that market will be approaching bottom in first week of june.
In absence of signals from Global situations and FROGs wait is advised. However, Long term investors should now study those stocks which they want to have in their portfolio and take positions as and when they are comfortable with valuations.

Pankaj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Hi

Thanks Karthik for your support.


Let us get to the point now.

Today FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 116 crores.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date---------- Buy Value---- Sell Value====- Net Value
29-May-2006-------- 938.18---- 1054.82==== -116.64

While sentiments have turned towards cautious optimism , market remains vilatile. As can be seen from FIIs trading activity their selling has reduced while they are not unlocking the cash box for purchase.

Thus market is meandering around like a river in the plains.
On Global and asian fronts no clues have emerged.It appeared that everybody is waiting for direction of market to emerge. Signals are not yet there.Of course thos who play smart will make money in any kind of market .But then all are not so smart.

Nifty volume was not all that great.
Traded Value (Rs. Crores) 5471.25 crs.
MFs will be exhausting there purchases. How long can they support it without the retun of the stranger and the prodigal son(retail Investor).

If positive direction does not emerge sentiments will take a further beating and going into june( first quarter earnings seasons) market will drift down further without FII support.

A feeling only that market will be approaching bottom in first week of june.
In absence of signals from Global situations and FROGs wait is advised. However, Long term investors should now study those stocks which they want to have in their portfolio and take positions as and when they are comfortable with valuations.

Pankaj

Hi Pankaj,

We all should be thanking you for taking an effort and posting it to give us the picture what is going beyond.

Really appreciated and thankful to u. Is it because of your postings, we really have come to know which things needs to be concentrated which I have never looked upon. Really learning a lot from ur posts. I hardly take out time to read news (which is very bad) but ur post gives me a view what is going on the markets.

Thanks Once again
Regards
Raj

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Pankaj,

We all should be thanking you for taking an effort and posting it to give us the picture what is going beyond.

Really appreciated and thankful to u. Is it because of your postings, we really have come to know which things needs to be concentrated which I have never looked upon. Really learning a lot from ur posts. I hardly take out time to read news (which is very bad) but ur post gives me a view what is going on the markets.

Thanks Once again
Regards
Raj

Hi Raj

Thanks for kind words. These are but few of the many parameters that affect the market. While taking a overall view we have to take into consideration other parameters which may not be related to market as such but, economic growth, Govt. expenditure, fiscal defict, revenue deficit, credit policies, direction of Policy thrust, political and social situatons. TA contends that these are adequately reflected in price movement. True but then people overlook while explaining price-volume movement. At least that is what I have noticed. What happens is that sentiments get built up on wishes and hope rather that reality and then TA fails to anticipate or even explain price movements. In extreme conditions these rules do break down.

It is funny to see that The Bussiness Line did not come up with any technical interpretations, charts, or answered any querries since the crash. Similar thing got noticed on this forum as well as on other forums that I visited. It is understandable. We are all human beings and when we see the foundation of our belief system shaken we retract to introspect. However being a neutral observer I thought it fit to put some points which might help others. My belief would also be shaken if the claims of Indian growth turn out to be a tall claim .
That will be truely a bear market of the sorts witnessed by developing economies , due to breakdown in economic system.

Thanks a lot

Pankaj

 

[ravi1967]

pankajji, we appreciate your thread very much as well as the contents provided. your data especially about FII figures at the end of the day itself allows us to plan our trading strategies
regards,ravi

 

[Saint]

Hi Pankaj,

Great thread,my friend......always used to wonder why our fundamental friends post less.Thanks for all that info and knowledge,my friend.

I seem to be too late in being the first to grade your thread as top class,but coming in 2nd is not too bad.

Great stuff,my friend,and keep 'em comin!!

Saint

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Pankaj,

Great thread,my friend......always used to wonder why our fundamental friends post less.Thanks for all that info and knowledge,my friend.

I seem to be too late in being the first to grade your thread as top class,but coming in 2nd is not too bad.

Great stuff,my friend,and keep 'em comin!!

Saint

Hi SAINT

It wows me to see you visit this thread and appreciate as well as rate it with your well known generousity and patience.I can not hope to meet the clarity and precision of your writing nor can I aspire for your depth. It indeed motivates a lot coming from a person I simply admire(no laloo's fan I am, of course!)

Basically I do not see any conflict of interest among FAs and TAs. An investment is a trade and a trade is an investment as well. Both involves shares, money, transaction and motivation to make money. Only approach may be different.

Your ideas are equally applicable to FA as it is to TA. One can ignore it at one's financial and emotional peril only.
Personally, I am not convinced about bear market argument. I may be wrong or an optimistic fool but in times of despair I thought to put my veiws as forcefully as I can and to encourage others to think in a different light. If it is indeed a bear market It would prove a great diservice and no apology would be enough.When people rely on one's words, a great responsibilty falls on one's shoulder not to mislead. That is my intention.

Thanks a lot SAINT

with warm regards

​

​

​

Pankaj

 

[gandharvashu]

From my view point,

Two things started this bull run, first was lowering interest rates allowing corporates to pay less interest and become more profitable and second rising income of middle class, which created consumption story.

Now, the interest rates have risen both in India and abroad, USA, Japan, etc. With rising interest, the first theme of this bull run is over, i.e. now corporates will have to pay high tax. Second theme is still intact i.e. the consumption story that is why markets is at crossroads, looking for turns and events.

With rise of interest rates in USA, flight of money is taking back to USA i.e. why we see every where from commodity markets to stock markets all over world, all categories are down.

Now in my view with this market rising up on very low volumes and today sliding down, i would anticipate it to fall further and i think we can probably test that bottom of sub 10000s again.

USA has increased rates due to inflation, and if globally oil prices cool down, I think markets can look further ahead. With cooling down of commodities, fears of inflation have lessened.

I think we should all keep fingers crossed and keep stop losses tight. May be I am wrong, but it is all my guess. Your comments are appreciated.

 

[pkjha30]

Hi

The position os uncertainty continues. Indian Indices played sesaw game catching both the long and short of it. WEAK HANDS are being squeezed out.

Global indices were at this time mildly positive.(could any one please check this) But sentiments are negative and the market is on the tanterhook waiting for the direction to come from any corner. Who will bail the cat. Our MF or FIIs.

Today FII buying picked up a little but is the selling.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in the Capital Market segment(In Rs. Crores)
Date ---Buy Value------- Sell Value------- Net Value
30-May-2006-------- 1439.66-------- 1652.52-------- -212.86

They were net seller. As I told eralier they are engaged in sector rotation. Now the money outflow is reduced but positive buying has not yet come. Amit some time back said that June month will be crucial and it will see the weakness in the indices.

I feel that unless we get a positive cue the sensex will continue like this. If it does not go below 9500 that means it will be set up for explosive move. Many are also feeling that 10500 has not yet been broken decisively and that may point to better days. Wishful thinking.
Where atr thou? FROG and global cues and FIIs

Pankaj

 

[pkjha30]

From my view point,

Two things started this bull run, first was lowering interest rates allowing corporates to pay less interest and become more profitable and second rising income of middle class, which created consumption story.

Now, the interest rates have risen both in India and abroad, USA, Japan, etc. With rising interest, the first theme of this bull run is over, i.e. now corporates will have to pay high tax. Second theme is still intact i.e. the consumption story that is why markets is at crossroads, looking for turns and events.

With rise of interest rates in USA, flight of money is taking back to USA i.e. why we see every where from commodity markets to stock markets all over world, all categories are down.

Now in my view with this market rising up on very low volumes and today sliding down, i would anticipate it to fall further and i think we can probably test that bottom of sub 10000s again.

USA has increased rates due to inflation, and if globally oil prices cool down, I think markets can look further ahead. With cooling down of commodities, fears of inflation have lessened.

I think we should all keep fingers crossed and keep stop losses tight. May be I am wrong, but it is all my guess. Your comments are appreciated.

Hi gandharv

You are probably right. I would tend to agree with you but on a deeper level if you see it was because of growth in emerging economies such as Korea, Singapore, China India and others that fuelled these rise. China GDP grew at scorching pace giving rise to the concern of hotting up in 2005.
Oil prices have not come down . It has risen from $ 37 to the current prices ( since the time I am seeing it). If interest rates in USA rises then obviously money is going to flow to USA but then it might make Dollar stronger which may not be good for USA but good for India and China. Thinks are so intricately linked that for an individual investor it is difficult to follow let alone understand it. So I concentrated on two factors FII and FROGs coupled with positive sentiments on world market. You will be amazed to see how fickle sentinments could be , jumping all over the graph.

Pankaj