The Survivors!!
- Thread starter Saint
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A great post from Linkon, a must read for any trader who dreams on ftt. Sorry I took this from other forum, but the owner of the forum wont mind me pasting this here 
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Re: Can I succeed as a Trader?
Success in trading has different meaning for different type of traders. A trader who is not dependent on trading as his primary source of income has a higher chance of survival than a trader who is a full timer with no other source of living. Bills to be paid, expenses to be met at the end of every month. Every month, X amount has to be withdrawn from the trading capital, even if a trader has just managed o break even that month. Even if he suffered a loss, the same X amount has to be withdrawn month after month. There is immense pressure to perform no matter what kind of phase the market is in.
As a full time trader with no other source of income, he cannot afford to have draw downs. He cannot afford to have a negative week. At the same time, experience has taught me that when I feel i am not in sync with the market or when my trading plan is not working as it has done historically, its time to lower the trading volumes drastically and weather out bad phase with minimum scratches. Market is asking me to adapt or die. The process of adapting to the new phase of the market takes a toll on the trader's career. He needs to alter his trading plan drastically to come out with at least X amount at the end of the month and if the trader fails to recognize early that the phase of the market is changing and he needs to alter is expectations from his trades drastically, he is in for a spiral from which he cannot recover easily.
In July-aug of 2010, I had a similar spiral where i was nearly wiped out as a trader. This time, when the same list less phase began, i was more well prepared mentally. Or so i thought. Nothing hurts more than to see your favorite pattern fail with such high frequency. Lack of trend in either direction meant, gap in one direction, drift in opposite direction and then close in the other direction. It was time to adapt to a new environment where I have to accept that what worked for me before, wont work now. I have to try out something different, that i have never worked with before and have no comfort factor. A safe way to approach this is to lower the trading volumes, and accept that month end target wont be met.
Recession has a devastating effect on the family life. The yearly holiday trip needed to be trimmed. The Rx-100 camera, the 42" TV, the x-box720 that can play blue ray... all that scrapped. Air tickets become... train tickets.
All that makes you very desperate and the trick is to resist from raising your hopes on a single trade that you bet big with the hope that it'll be the magic bullet that will solve all the financial problems. After all, 80% of all losses come from just 2% of the total trades. That 2% trade was the sure shot trade...that you bet big and was a trade with multiple confirmation and was supposed to give a major boost to the P/L curve. Instead, if fails miserably and caused a mortal wound to your capital.
In Greek mythology, when Achilles was a baby, it was foretold that he would die young . To prevent his death, his mother Thetis took Achilles to the River Styx, which was supposed to offer powers of invulnerability, and dipped his body into the water. But as Thetis held Achilles by the heel, his heel was not washed over by the water of the magical river. Achilles grew up to be a man of war who survived many great battles. But one day, a poisonous arrow shot at him was lodged in his heel, killing him shortly after. Still, Achilles is remembered as one of the greatest fighters who ever lived.
Achilles of the trading world has to be aware of the weakness. He needs to protect his heel. All good traders do brilliantly for 98 trade and get killed in the remaining 2. Trading is all about protecting ourselves from that 2% trades.
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.
,Re: Can I succeed as a Trader?
Success in trading has different meaning for different type of traders. A trader who is not dependent on trading as his primary source of income has a higher chance of survival than a trader who is a full timer with no other source of living. Bills to be paid, expenses to be met at the end of every month. Every month, X amount has to be withdrawn from the trading capital, even if a trader has just managed o break even that month. Even if he suffered a loss, the same X amount has to be withdrawn month after month. There is immense pressure to perform no matter what kind of phase the market is in.
As a full time trader with no other source of income, he cannot afford to have draw downs. He cannot afford to have a negative week. At the same time, experience has taught me that when I feel i am not in sync with the market or when my trading plan is not working as it has done historically, its time to lower the trading volumes drastically and weather out bad phase with minimum scratches. Market is asking me to adapt or die. The process of adapting to the new phase of the market takes a toll on the trader's career. He needs to alter his trading plan drastically to come out with at least X amount at the end of the month and if the trader fails to recognize early that the phase of the market is changing and he needs to alter is expectations from his trades drastically, he is in for a spiral from which he cannot recover easily.
In July-aug of 2010, I had a similar spiral where i was nearly wiped out as a trader. This time, when the same list less phase began, i was more well prepared mentally. Or so i thought. Nothing hurts more than to see your favorite pattern fail with such high frequency. Lack of trend in either direction meant, gap in one direction, drift in opposite direction and then close in the other direction. It was time to adapt to a new environment where I have to accept that what worked for me before, wont work now. I have to try out something different, that i have never worked with before and have no comfort factor. A safe way to approach this is to lower the trading volumes, and accept that month end target wont be met.
Recession has a devastating effect on the family life. The yearly holiday trip needed to be trimmed. The Rx-100 camera, the 42" TV, the x-box720 that can play blue ray... all that scrapped. Air tickets become... train tickets.
All that makes you very desperate and the trick is to resist from raising your hopes on a single trade that you bet big with the hope that it'll be the magic bullet that will solve all the financial problems. After all, 80% of all losses come from just 2% of the total trades. That 2% trade was the sure shot trade...that you bet big and was a trade with multiple confirmation and was supposed to give a major boost to the P/L curve. Instead, if fails miserably and caused a mortal wound to your capital.
In Greek mythology, when Achilles was a baby, it was foretold that he would die young . To prevent his death, his mother Thetis took Achilles to the River Styx, which was supposed to offer powers of invulnerability, and dipped his body into the water. But as Thetis held Achilles by the heel, his heel was not washed over by the water of the magical river. Achilles grew up to be a man of war who survived many great battles. But one day, a poisonous arrow shot at him was lodged in his heel, killing him shortly after. Still, Achilles is remembered as one of the greatest fighters who ever lived.
Achilles of the trading world has to be aware of the weakness. He needs to protect his heel. All good traders do brilliantly for 98 trade and get killed in the remaining 2. Trading is all about protecting ourselves from that 2% trades.
Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose.
Hi
About two weeks back the great Saint started this thread, and there was so much excitement and buzz around it . . .
For those of us, who have not been around when Saint imparted his first fishing lessons, it was fun to watch, old IDs (4rm 2007/8) that had not posted for years suddenly become active to welcome/interact with the boss himself . . .
As we watched from sidelines and in anticipation of one more great round of learning to take place . . . the initial excitement keeps fizzling out . . .
With these words from Saint
Should we consider them as famous final words from Saint . . . or
Will he get something going and we are just waiting for the inauspicious fortnight to pass so that the learning threads can start
Cheers
Happy
About two weeks back the great Saint started this thread, and there was so much excitement and buzz around it . . .
For those of us, who have not been around when Saint imparted his first fishing lessons, it was fun to watch, old IDs (4rm 2007/8) that had not posted for years suddenly become active to welcome/interact with the boss himself . . .
As we watched from sidelines and in anticipation of one more great round of learning to take place . . . the initial excitement keeps fizzling out . . .
With these words from Saint
Should we consider them as famous final words from Saint . . . or
Will he get something going and we are just waiting for the inauspicious fortnight to pass so that the learning threads can start
Cheers
Happy
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