Thomas DeMark Sequential System

[sanjosedesi]

After quickly scanning (visually) a bunch of stocks for TD COUNTDOWN, I sense countdown does not really work !!

- Called out Axis Bank top on Nov 7
- Called out Bajaj Auto top on Oct 31
- Called out Hero Motors bottom on Oct 3
- Called out Hindalco bottom on Oct 22
- Called out ICICI Bank bottom on Nov 16
- Called out Maruti top on Oct 31
- Called out NTPC top on Oct 17
- Called out RECLTD top on Oct 31
- Called out TCS top on Nov 2

All of these except TCS - wrong !!

It is either the problem with the code - we already know the code is wrong for Apollo Tyre - or countdown does not work on our markets.

I did some more reading on countdown vs combo and I think this is exactly the problem which COMBO is trying to solve - lot of times the countdown carries on even if the price whipsawed, but combo moves only if the prices are moving one way (in a trend rather than consolidating).

If we could fix the code problems as seen from apollo tyres, we will have better clarity.

Alright ... end of work day / week !!

 

[ritesh.bafna88]

i will SCAN the counters given by you for CD and will compare by the moded code... will post my findings soon...

i request ST sirji to clear one question regarding CD under sequential system... on the 13th CD bar the condition is to be satisfied is C>C of 8th CD bar (sell CD)... or 13th CD to be C>H previous 2 bar or both....

please clear out the query at the earliest

thank you

 

[Smart_trade]

i will SCAN the counters given by you for CD and will compare by the moded code... will post my findings soon...

i request ST sirji to clear one question regarding CD under sequential system... on the 13th CD bar the condition is to be satisfied is C>C of 8th CD bar (sell CD)... or 13th CD to be C>H previous 2 bar or both....

please clear out the query at the earliest

thank you

We require both conditions to be satisfied.

13th countdown bar in case of buy countdown if C is not less than low 2 bars back we can check if Low is less than Low 2 bars back.....if this is satisfied then 13th countdown is ok. But this relaxation is only for 13th countdown bar and not for any earlier bar. This is known as Terminal Count.

Smart_trade

 

[ritesh.bafna88]

thanks for the prompt reply.... based on this recent clarification i am again giving a scan on apollo tyre... just to make sure that i am not making any errors...

 

[Smart_trade]

After quickly scanning (visually) a bunch of stocks for TD COUNTDOWN, I sense countdown does not really work !!

- Called out Axis Bank top on Nov 7
- Called out Bajaj Auto top on Oct 31
- Called out Hero Motors bottom on Oct 3
- Called out Hindalco bottom on Oct 22
- Called out ICICI Bank bottom on Nov 16
- Called out Maruti top on Oct 31
- Called out NTPC top on Oct 17
- Called out RECLTD top on Oct 31
- Called out TCS top on Nov 2

All of these except TCS - wrong !!

It is either the problem with the code - we already know the code is wrong for Apollo Tyre - or countdown does not work on our markets.

I did some more reading on countdown vs combo and I think this is exactly the problem which COMBO is trying to solve - lot of times the countdown carries on even if the price whipsawed, but combo moves only if the prices are moving one way (in a trend rather than consolidating).

If we could fix the code problems as seen from apollo tyres, we will have better clarity.

Alright ... end of work day / week !!

SJD,

Are you sure you have considered set up recycle, 2 or more set ups etc while arriving at 13th countdown ?

I will manually do a few set up and countdown countings. Any particular one you want me to do ?

Smart_trade

 

[sanjosedesi]

I am just testing the AFL. If it shows an arrow, I presume it has done its work. Of course it is buggy. Now comes the debug - manually verifying 10-20 countdowns with the AFL.

To reconfirm - I have not done any thinking about recycles etc - I have just matched the afl output with market behavior. In one case - Apollo tyre - I have confirmation from Bloomberg thru a friend that Ritesh counts were correct but not the AFL.

 

[ritesh.bafna88]

on again going through the CD count of Apollo Tyre i have found out mistakes with my counting... the revised observations are...

1. although the AFL gives buy on 09/11/2012 which is still wrong.
2. the buy set up completed very next day that is on 12/11/2012
3. as the buy bar needs to be a green candlestick hence the buy stands at the same candle that is 21/11/2012

please note that in my previous post i had said that candle on 20/11/2012 is 13th CD bar stands wrong...

my apologies for the same...

here is the chart please members go thorough it and do mention if i am making any more mistakes...

 

[ritesh.bafna88]

smat traderji please go through apollo tyre...

thank you

 

[sanjosedesi]

Ritesh can u again repeat just the three dates ...

A) afl buy
B) your original buy
C) your revised/corrected buy

All of these are dates

 

[ritesh.bafna88]

Ritesh can u again repeat just the three dates ...

A) afl buy
B) your original buy
C) your revised/corrected buy

All of these are dates

9th original afl
20th original by me
12th revised by me

But the buy candle remains same as 21st