Thomas DeMark Sequential System
- Thread starter leo_3455
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Intraday waalon - yeh dekho - 5 mins BNF traded on TDST !!!!
Please no Qs ... got this from a friend .. so sharing here .... and yes .. the trader has posted realtime and taken the trade too - that u have to take my word for it ....
Please no Qs ... got this from a friend .. so sharing here .... and yes .. the trader has posted realtime and taken the trade too - that u have to take my word for it ....
Kindly ask your friend how he has marked the countdown bars ( marked in blue numbers). Does he have any AFL ? If he has an AFL and if he/you post here, it will help us in smaller timeframes.
Smart_trade
Posting TD Sequential buy set up and countdown on dailt chart of Apollo Tyres.
The chart is done on the bhavcopy data taken from NSE...this can be taken as official data.
Note that sequential identified the bottom and the buy is when we get a close >open on or after 13 countdown.
@ SJD...this close > open ( or a positive candle ) works well...if youwait for the price flip, your entry gets delayed and we sacrifice much of the prive move and our stops go far to that extent.
While on this, want to share a very important tool called Set up Qualifier. In case of buy set up, the low of 9th set up day should be less than the low of 6th set up day. This relationship is normally there but in some cases it is not satisfied ( but it does not reduce the importance of set up in any way) and the qualifier says that if this relationship is not there, then in next 3 bars from the 9th bar, the market will break the low of the 6 th set up bar. Just see that in this case, the low of 9th set up bar is NOT lower than low of 6th set up bar and the qualifier becomes operational. Just see that in next 3 rd bar the market broke the low of the 6th set up bar. This works great even on smaller timeframes such as 3/5 or 15/60 min also and I have traded this setup qualifier even in intraday. It has a success rate of 80-85 %
So in Sequential chart I find that the AFL identified 13 countdown on same bar as ours.
There is another version where for 11,12 and 13 countdown bar all that is required is that the closing is successively lower. This version also has a good success rate.
I have posted the same Apollo Tyres daily chart with Combo markings. Note that Combo identified the exact low of the move and gave a buy on Terminal Count (on comparing open to open) .
It is therefore advisable to run Sequential and Combo togather to identify low risk buy/sell.....they don't speak too often but when they both speak, it pays to listen carefully and act on it.
Smart_trade
Dear ST, based on the following, could you please elaborate on the set up failure as to how to keep a sl and entry rule.
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Yes Murtaza, we have completed sequential and Combo sell signal in Nifty. The sell signal was on the very next day.
The stoploss was not hit on closing basis though in intraday we went above stoploss level.
The sell signal is still valid. I have mentioned this in realtime a few posts back.
Ritesh had posted chart showing Sequential/Combo a few posts back...have a look.
We will wait for atleast a buy set up to complete and then we will take a call whether to wait for full 13 counts or treat it as a correction after the set up completion as I dont expect TDST to be broken.
ST
The stoploss was not hit on closing basis though in intraday we went above stoploss level.
The sell signal is still valid. I have mentioned this in realtime a few posts back.
Ritesh had posted chart showing Sequential/Combo a few posts back...have a look.
We will wait for atleast a buy set up to complete and then we will take a call whether to wait for full 13 counts or treat it as a correction after the set up completion as I dont expect TDST to be broken.
ST
Sorry for mixing up the intersection with set up Qualifier, please read as set up qualifier instead of intersection failure
Dear ST, based on the following, could you please elaborate on the set up failure as to how to keep a sl and entry rule.
Dear ST, based on the following, could you please elaborate on the set up failure as to how to keep a sl and entry rule.
In the first chart, we have seen that the move repeatedly failed at TDST. The set up marked in the first chart , the qualifier has failed because, the qualifier says that within next 3 bars ( after 9th set up bar) the high of the 6th set up bar should have been taken out. The qualifier is active only till next 3 bars and though after many bars in between we see that the 6th bar high was takenout and the upmove again failed at TDST. But these many bars are not allowed, so it is clearly a failure of set up qualifier.This pattern is not a "wait and watch" pattern, it is "now or never" kind of pattern.
Now the question is if the set up qualifier fails, can we save ourselves from getting trapped in the false trade ? Many false trades could be avoided as under :
1) In case of sell set up,if the 9th bar high is not above the 6th bar high, then in next 3 bars , the market takes out the high of the 6th bar. I have traded this pattern in daily/60 min/30min and even 5 or 3 min charts. I have found that if the set us qualifier has to fail,particularly in daily bars, the market after 9th day, will gap down and will never recover.This is what happened in your first chart failure.
2) We have to wait for the market to show that it is gathering strength to take out high of 6th bar, one way is to wait till the high of 9th bar (or the subsequent bar after 9th) is taken out, and then take position.
3) If the set up is in larger timeframe of daily/60 min, we let the market take out the pivot high in 15 min charts before we take a long position. In case of 5 min bars , wait till the high of the 9th bar is taken out...this will indicate that the strength is re-surfacing.
The above is for avoiding getting trapped in false trades....but we cannot avoid all 100 % false trades. But I have found that this pattern has a high success rate. Inspite of all the precautions, some trades will fail and we just say " this pattern will always have a few failures....and this is one of them " and move on....
Hope the above discussion helps in trading this pattern.
Smart_trade
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