Today's Buy Levels

[sandeep.kala]

hi sandeep,
most psu banking stocks are at a pivotal level .... so pls be strict with your s/ls

Thanks rajaram ji, as you said i will be...

 

[rider.royal]

Just started to follow this thread, havent done any real trade yet as want to get hold of my fundamental regarding technical analysis. So one query, do you follow all these daily and decide about them according to technical indicators decided by them???

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Rajaram dilipkumar ,

I am thinking of goin LONG in SBIN at 1010-1015 levels. The Thick TL gave bounced 3 times and quite big bouncebacks. SBIN is again near to its supports.
SL can be placed around 990 which is support on Daily charts and Also H&S breach level on Monthly charts.
Am still new to chart readings and would like to confirm with anyone who can help me.

Hi coolboy,
Your queries on icici bank and sbin required a more detailed response hence the delay ........
The first things i look for in a chart is whether its close to a significant monthly support or whether it has established a uptrend on the monthly charts ....
icici bank has not established a uptrend on the monthly charts and hence it is a buy around 285 to 310 only with s/l at 272-273 ( 5% below its monthly pivot at 283 ) as its monthly support lies there .
Next comes the number of retest ....
As to sbi , i would not have ventured in to buying that one even around 965-1031 because that support has been retested 5 times in the last 7 months. More the number of retest more the chances of a breakdown . Now why did i buy tatamotors which has retested the same support area four times in the last four months ? because that support has held since march - 02 . Higher the number of years a support holds less susceptible it becomes to a breakdown .... Another reason why i didnt buy sbi was the h & s top that its making in the monthly charts.
Once iam satisfied with the first two parameters .... i will then look at position sizing and risk - reward. With each successive retest my position sizing is lesser by 25 % (...find enc. tatamotors chart with the last four months candle marked as 0,1,2,3 for illustration). This again is due to the fear of the stock breaking support at succesive retests. With a fifth retest in sbi i would have a lesser position size and hence a lesser reward than say a ranbaxy , zee , rcom , dlf ... with similar amount of monthly retest if i have to choose between two stocks ( given a scenario that i have exhauted the margin in my brokerage account ) then i will go for the one which has a stop nearby .... for e.g. i would have preferred a zee with 93 entry with s/l 88 ahead of a tatamotors where my entry was at 132 with s/l 112 ... 1st or 2nd retest with stops nearby is the ideal scenario to entar.

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

Just started to follow this thread, havent done any real trade yet as want to get hold of my fundamental regarding technical analysis. So one query, do you follow all these daily and decide about them according to technical indicators decided by them???

hi rider , lost plenty trading these indicators .......... we buy when rsi gets in to oversold territory and it remains that way for days to gether but price will keep going down . By the time we could catch that MACD buy signal stock could have already bounced some 20 % , hits some resistance and starts tanking . Also they say , high volumes in the direction of the trend means that the trend remains intact and vice-versa . We all know for a fact that the volumes were high during oct - dec 07 which should have ensured the bull market was intact but what happened in jan 08 ...Also since jan 08 the volumes have dropped but does that mean that the bear market has ended .Here again some traders will look at distribution volume and accumulation volume but iam no expert on that. Hence i never look to trade on the basis of indicators . I follow price, patterns and pivots ...

 

[coolboy007]

Dear Rajaram ,

Thanks for that detailed analysis , phew!!! Got to learn a lot of things.

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

summary of buy trades , exited level & stock holdings with relevant stops ...

tatamotors @ 134 sold 50% quantity at 149 . Holding the remaining with s/l 142
rcom @ 161 . Holding with s/l 154.5
Suzlon @ 46.2 stopped out at 45.2
Zee @ 92 . Sold 50% at 105.8 and remaining at 112
Dlf @ 157 sold 50 % at 181 . Holding the remaining with s/l 155
Ranbaxy @ 182.8 sold all @ 206.5
Idea @ 43.7 sold 50% @ 46.4 and remaining @ 45.5
Unitech @ 29 sold 25% @ 31 , another 25% @ 32.2 holding the remaining with s/l 28
PNB @ 404 holding with stop @ 385

out of tatamotors & dlf ... when the stops got hit ( both got hit yesterday) . placed stop orders for unitech , rcom & pnb just have a feeling these will be hit before day close .... Will catch zee if it comes to 91 s/l 88 with 25% lesser position size than before , as also tatasteel , rpl and relcap if they get to the levels i mentioned before.

 

[sandeep.kala]

What should i do with PNB ?

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

What should i do with PNB ?

nothing ... till stops get hit ( i will wait till it takes out my stop ). i placed a stop sell at 383 and placed a stop buy at 411 ( being my first add from entry ) . lets see.....

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

bought network 18 @ 83 s/l 76

 

[rajaram.dilipkumar]

selling half here at 89 ....