Hi
For every option that is written (sold), someone else has to buy it, one New buy+sell new transaction creates open interest.
Now when the old buyer will sell or old seller will buy back (i.e closes the open position) then this decreases the OI.
So effectively there are 4 types of trades wrt OI
- (Long) New Buyer + (Short) New Seller ==> OI increases
- (Long) New Buyer + (Square) Old Buyer ==> OI Same
- (Cover) Old Seller + (Short) New Seller ==> OI Same
- (Cover) Old Seller + (Square) Old Buyer ==> OI Decreases
Here
Cover = Buy back the old Short option position
Square = Sell back the old Long option position
Now when the OI increases it means that new open position are being created i.e. both Buyers & Sellers camps have increased their respective position size.
The question now is who is forcing the issue? Who is more desperate to initiate the trade? The answer to this perhaps lies in the Implied Volatility.
So the rule can be
- OI increases with increase in IV ==> Buyers are forced to pay more and still buying i.e. accumulation.
- OI increases with decrease in IV ==> Sellers are forced to accept less and still selling i.e. writing
- OI decreases with increase in IV ==> Buyers are unwinding at a disadvantage
- OI decreases with decrease in IV ==> Sellers are unwinding at an advantage
Disclaimer: the above maybe correct or maybe its all crap, that's just my current view, been wrong many times before . . .
Thanks
NT