Trading Challenge II : 300% in 5 months

[SwagatN]

For last two days I was away from live trading, as I have something more important to attend before I start live. That is backtesting. This should have been ended before I started from 16th Aug, or may be I should have started only after finishing this. But I guess it does not matter any more when I am starting as the end date is fixed. So it is just a matter of building confidence in what I am doing.

The backtesting was done manually bar by bar in Amirboker auto play with time interval set as 1 sec. So one day took nearly 6+ hours to complete. This was close to the real time market that I could go with. I had to go through the times of waiting for a setup with patience and had to wait for a candle close to make a decision. Though it was painful, but I am glad I finished it.

I double checked all my trades and checklist for trades taken and areas where there are no trades to ensure I am not doing anything wrong as It was hard for me to believe that I had no loosing trades for that month. TATASTEEL moved quite good for intraday in the month of July with no ambiguity in directional bias, so I guess the performance justifies it. I am in no way advocating that my system does not make loss, I am sure it does and it will, and I am waiting for that. I will start testing BANKNIFTY for august 2018 next in same approach as this is trading in a tight range so far and experienced traders like @XRAY27, @VJAY has reported loss. May be that will test my strategy and my approach even more and make it better.

In the simulation there was no brokerage and commissions are applied, slippage during entry/exits are factored in, But I had used a filter of 0.1 during both entry and exit. So real output will be lesser that what I shown in the table.

 

[SwagatN]

Analysing my backesting and preparing the road map for challenge
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During the backtesting I performed with a 66% accuracy on my trading system, for 33% of the time I missed the trades as I realised the setup after I saw the move. And also not to forget that one wrong trade that I took which was not as per my method. Luckily I made some profit in that trade too, but I am sure I wont come out that lucky always. So there is a lot to improve on my side in execution of my trading strategy. Though this slow backtesting has given me a lot of confidence in looking for trading bias and my trade setups, but still its a discretionary system. So there is always a room for human error. I have made clear checklist for trade directions, trade setups and trade management to make as objective as possible. But still a human is going to implement it and I will try my best to trade live as objectively as I can.

For July 2018, TATASTEEL, gave a net return of 100+ points but I guess I can not expect the similar return in every months. I think a proper expectency can be set on TATASTEEL after a 6/8 months of intraday testing where it would have seen every kind of market movements. And I am sure trading just one symbol will take me there where I want to go. Even trading 2/3 fixed scrip is not the solution. Most of us are doing that. So I wanted to have a scanner implemented which can take me to the symbols ready for a potential move at the right time in real market. I tried a lot to implement my strategy in to so AFL, but there is no success so far.

I look for probable trades based upon the candle structure and pattern, and a same candle might have different meaning based on where it appears on the chart. Sometime I need to see the background to build the picture and sometimes I wait to see the subsequent candles too for how they follow the trigger candle, and right now coding all these concept are out of my limited intelligence. So I have only one way open to track for potential stock manually. And there is my limitation to it, which offcourse can be increased with time. So for now I think I will go with pre-selected number of symbols which I can track manually at ease in live. I am working on it today, will finalise it before today's evening.

 

[kingsmasher1]

Objective : Generate a profit of 300% in 20 weeks (5 months)
Start Date : 16th August 2018
End Date : 31st December 2018
Starting Capital : 3L
Target Capital : 12L
Trading Style : Intraday (1min) with Positional (EOD)
Trading Instrument : TATASTEEL, RELIANCE, BANKNIFTY current month future for intraday and Entire NIFTY 200 stocks in cash for EOD positional.
Trading Strategy and Methods :
For intraday I will trade 1m timeframe trend in the foot steps of 5m trend.
For positional I will trade Daily trend in the foot steps of Weekly trend.
Methods used are simple price action, candle pattern and volume analysis. No indicators.
Intraday Risk = 1% of trading capital
Business Risk = 20% of trading capital. i.e. at anytime my net equity is down by 20% from its peak I will consider this challenge as a failure.

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This is my 2nd attempt on the challenge of making a 300% return with in 5 months (20 weeks). The first attempt started on 15th of May 2018 and was supposed to run till 31st September. My trading capital was 1.5L, and final capital target was 6L. But I accepted my defeat on 2nd August 2018 with my final equity standing at a loss of 8% i.e. 12K. That was hell of a journey and I did enjoy it a lot. At a low point I accepted my failure, off-course I was done, but I am not finished.

This time I have raised my capital to 3L and thus the target is 12L. I will trade on derivative of the above mentioned scrip. More on my lessons and experiences from the 1st challenge in the subsequent post.

>>> NEVER GIVE UP <<<

I like your enthusiasm, however this challenge is immature and completely unrealistic according to me.
You can make only as much money as the market offers and not more than that. (It can be -ve, 300% or even 800% based on how it goes, and if it is trending, or if you are able to catch that trend in time.), so giving an advance prediction is impossible.

Even the best hedge fund, and money managers around the world, can't make such a prediction with having the best backtested algos, HFTs, and other resources at their disposal because no one can predict the future.

And you are ready to leave the trading if you aren't able to make 300% in 5 months?

 

[SwagatN]

It has been nearly more than a week and I am yet to take a real trade in this 2nd challenge. But i guess that was good, as I got some good time to re-introspect my thought, my goal, what I want to do and how I want to do it.. As i have mentioned earlier now with the higher stake I am going to do some modification to my roadmap here. One of that was tracking multiple stocks for intraday. Now that will be done manually and I have chosen some 15 stocks from NIFTY 15 for today. I am yet to take a call on positional trading and keeping it delayed for next weekend.

There have been times when I regretted for the time and luxury I had and how I did not utilise that well. I have been through the guilt of how I could have handled my time in a better and smarter way. I have also been to the moment where I wished I had more times to do what I want to do..It took me quite some time to accept that I can not go back in time and undone my past. But I dont want to live in that regret or guilt as well. So all I have to do is live the present moment to its fullest and do what I always wanted to do..Coz this time is not gonna come back again..At-least from now on I will have the satisfaction of even if for few days I lived life in my terms and to its fullest..

So why wait tiill 31st Dec to see If I win the challenge or not ?? (Is not that again taking trading for granted?) Why wait till SEBI rules to come out and see if that has room for me to trade or not.. This day, today could be my last trading day too..So all I have is today and I am going to give my best shot to it no matter what comes next..

>>> NEVER GIVE UP <<<

 

[SwagatN]

27 Aug 2018

I was tracking 16 stocks today, and did not get any high probable trade setup. A no trade day to start with..

 

[SwagatN]

>>> Duplicate Post <<<

 

[superman]

27 Aug 2018

I was tracking 16 stocks today, and did not get any high probable trade setup. A no trade day to start with..

Are you a full time trader ? Any other source of income ,, Most of traders start with being passive and then become full time

 

[SwagatN]

Are you a full time trader ? Any other source of income ,, Most of traders start with being passive and then become full time

I am full time trader, No other source of income

 

[newtrader101]

I think this challenge may be achievable by fading breakouts with a very small stop loss, trends happen very irregularly. BO fails are the norm.

 

[SwagatN]

Date : 28 Aug 2018

Today I started the day with tracking 20 stocks manually. At the open there was a surge in volatility and most of the stocks turned bearish, Since it is quite difficult to track this many stocks manually in fast moving market, I trimmed down my selection to 6 stocks only, The morning bearish momentum died by 10:30 and after that no more high probable trade setup came.. Another no trade day..

There was low probable LONG on TATASTEEL, which I let go, If I were trading only one symbol then I would have taken that, but with multiple scrips my strategy is to look for high probable clean trends.

Looking forward to tomorrow.