Trading Nifty

[rajesh.sadhanala]

Sir, I regret the error. I apologise. Had not checked the time as you rightly pointed out.
However please note I have no intention to 'discredit' you. This is my last post in this thread and sorry for all the heart burns my post must have given you. I iterate that my posts were part of on going discussuion and without any ulterior motives.
Bye and all the best to you.

I would be happy that if you continue with your posts. We know that you are not trying to discredit anyone. The on going discussion is really going nice and it helps everyone to learn. To learn the most, you need to see the pros and cons to weigh them.

I hope that you would take this post in right sense to continue.

Raj

 

[rajesh.sadhanala]

DEAR GAURAV,

Though I had gone through this thread twice, dinn comment anything.

But I am watching whatever u want are writing.There is no logic.

Before commenting anything about TA, please study them properly, and comment.

By the way u may be surprised, for trading/giving calls I only track bar charts only. other indicators sometimes only.

U still need to learn TA, my friend.

dev mookerji

Cannot say there is no Logic. Atleast he has somewhat planned strategy which may go right or wrong i.e. is different.

I wouldn't go with you that TA is a must to beat the market but discipline and strategy is a must. TA is just a tool and can be replaced by other tools.

Raj

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

I have 2 lots of nifty August 4490 and 4375. Sold Sept one lot at 4265. August call with strike of 4500 at 70. Please sugggest what to do tomorrow, if market goes up or down.

Dear Ranj_2k,

Sorry dont know you full name. I believe nifty should see 4400 odd levels in future (august series) give or take a few points this week.

By shorting sept series at a low you have made a mistake. Anyway, we learn with experience. As far as the lot taken at 4375 is concerned you shall come into profit zone so there is no problem. You should exit that at around 4390-4400 levels.

The problem is with you two other nifties. if the market opens around todays close you may want to square off the short position and again short at 4400 odd, thus saving about 100 points. As far as the long position at 4490 is concerned, you may hold on, and survive by progressively reducing your cost through profits in other positions.

As far as call is concerned, you can kiss it goodbye. When the market moves up a bit you would get to recover a bit of it but i dont think you can get profit in it now.

If you recall i had said i normally dont buy calls and puts due to losses on account of time decay. There are exceptions when i am almost 100% sure of an immediate move, but i still prefer futures. Options i use more as hedges rather than as investments.

Finally, it would be difficlut for me to bail out members if they are in trouble. This is not because i cannot do so, but i lack time on account of numerous phones i get from friends for guidance on markets. This leaves me less time to respond to all mails though i am trying and shall keep trying. It also means that i am sometimes not able to respond during market hours, which makes the task of bailing out more difficult.

Also real guidance for people in trouble can come about only if i am aware of their position with respect to finances etc.

In any case, please play safe and that too calmly. Hope you get out of it

With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

I went through the posts. Nice explanation by you and when I tried to understand your strategy it is nice and well planned and it takes time to understand to get the overall picture.

Many of our friends showed their interests by criticize (its a healthier word which helps everyone to learn) and show the importance of stop loss and any shortcomings.

I m a person who believes in strict stoploss. I understood that you are not comfortable with SL. Hedging is nothing but a SL (many wouldn't agree coz we are not booking loss) but it helps in identify the trend. Once we are certain with the trend then we book the loss and hedged position to nullify the additional loss.

I m really impressed with the way that u took the criticism as a healthier way for learning purpose. Please continue with your posts, I m really interested to see your overall strategy without SL.

Regards
Raj

Dear Raj,

Just one point that makes hedges different from stop losses. I hedge when i think it is required. So it is a concious decision to go the other way, not playing to chance.
With stop loss the question is of chance. If your stop loss is trigerred and then the market moves up (in bullish trend) you have booked a loss and lost the opportunity to make money.
A small but subtle difference.
With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Cannot say there is no Logic. Atleast he has somewhat planned strategy which may go right or wrong i.e. is different.

I wouldn't go with you that TA is a must to beat the market but discipline and strategy is a must. TA is just a tool and can be replaced by other tools.

Raj

Rajesh,
Very well put. I agree with that 100%. i will raise a point to those who swear by TA alone
1. When the market went up yesterday, did any indicator show that it would dive today.
2. I stick my neck out by saying that the market will now go up to around 4400 level. At this moment all indicators should be showing read and nobody would be buying, I have purchased today. Let us see the result.
With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

 

[KnowHow]

hi..............


this is vishal... i m new to this site.... could u plz help me out with the terms like threads... and all..????


i just dont know what to do....

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Trading Nifty- Review and strategy for 2nd August

Dear Friends,

Our position is as under

1.Nifty purchased at 4530 on 23/7/07 , current price 4288, M to M = -12100
2. Nifty purchased at 4410 on 30/07/07, sold on 31/7/07 at 4460, Net profit = 2500.
3. Nifty Sept series shorted at 4440 on 31/07/07, covered on 1/08/07 at 4340, Net profit = 5000/-
4. Nifty August series Long at 4330 on 1/8/07, Current price = 4288, M to M = - 2100

Summary, We have booked Profits of 7500/- and M to M = - 14200. Net we are 6700 in the RED.

Please note i have not booked a loss so far. My net position is still well under control and the margins are not threatened at all so far (Remember we had 75000/-).

The outlook ahead suggests that nifty is set to rise today. Between today and tomorrow, we should see nifty move up to around 4400 levels. Once that happens, we would be comfortable.

I accept that with two long positions in nifty, if nifty were to crash today, we would have problems. But i am confident that such a thing can virtually not happen. That is because of the patterns in the market suggest that it has to go up to 4400.

Of course a very unusual event could still disturb the pattern, but even in such a case, the market would give us an opporunity to exit the second nifty at profit (even if a small one), at least once before tanking. Also, i still have funds to hedge using put options if it is really required (though i cannot short a nifty to hedge at present)

The current plan is to book profit in Nifty purchased yesterday at around 4400 levels. That would add Rs. 3500/- odd to booked profit as well as reduce the M to M loss and we should be well in profits.

We will reveiw the position at 4400 levels or if there is a change in patterns.

With best wishes

Gaurav Kumar

 

[uasish]

Watching your plan,OK still now except the Pattern faliure.

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Watching your plan,OK still now except the Pattern faliure.

Dear Ashish,

Patterns can indeed change. That is why we had to hedge in the first place. I have the necessary back up to deal with it. I was sure nifty would go up and it has already hit 4335. The only thing that i had done was stretched my resources a bit into what i may say is a minor danger zone, when i do not have enough funds to use a future as a hedge and instead have to resort to use of options (which i do not normally favour).


With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

That was 4335 in future august series