Trading Nifty

[Gaurav Kumar]

Dear Friends,

Let me stick my long neck out again for the chopping block.

This is a prediction for the month of August.

Nifty shall touch 4500 at least once this month (it could be towards the end of the month or it could be earlier, i would not commit on that).

Of course before that happens, market could see another bout of selling, so one needs to be prepared.

With best wishes,

Gaurav Kumar

 

[uasish]

Mkt going OK still now ,as per your plan.

 

[ranj_2k]

Dear Gaurav,

Thank you for guidance. I would like to use your valuable advise in successfully closign my future position so that I could gain some thing monetary as weel as knowledge. After closing of market, I will inform you my left over position and would earnestly expect some advise before opening of market next day about market pattern and strategy for my holding positions. Just for the shake of sharing information, I am trading in F&O since one year but even after gain say 1.5 lacs I have lost the amount by taking wrong position. Like in falling market having buy position and short position while market was on uptrend.


I have closed my Future Sept short position at 4335 at a loss of 70 points.

Now, by closing of today market I have following positions:


Nifty long - August - 4490 and 4375
Call 4500 August at 69

You have mentioned somewhere in your message that you use put option for hedging, if required. What you would gain in hedging through put option instead of shorting future position.

Thanks & Regards

Ranjeet

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Dear Gaurav,

Thank you for guidance. I would like to use your valuable advise in successfully closign my future position so that I could gain some thing monetary as weel as knowledge. After closing of market, I will inform you my left over position and would earnestly expect some advise before opening of market next day about market pattern and strategy for my holding positions. Just for the shake of sharing information, I am trading in F&O since one year but even after gain say 1.5 lacs I have lost the amount by taking wrong position. Like in falling market having buy position and short position while market was on uptrend.


I have closed my Future Sept short position at 4335 at a loss of 70 points.

Now, by closing of today market I have following positions:


Nifty long - August - 4490 and 4375
Call 4500 August at 69

You have mentioned somewhere in your message that you use put option for hedging, if required. What you would gain in hedging through put option instead of shorting future position.

Thanks & Regards

Ranjeet

Dear Ranjeet,

Before i go about advising you further please note a few things for your benefit as well as ensuring a smooth understanding between us.

1. A successful investor in my view has to conquer both fear and greed.
2. A successful investor is one who is sure of his analysis and also is fully prepared to handle the situation if things go wrong.

Let us do some critical analysis.

In the first few minutes of trade today, nifty was well below 4300 levels. That should have presented you with an ideal opportunity to exit the short position. With a little bit of luck you may not have suffered a loss at all.

However, assuming you were watching the market, it is most likely that the opening fall would have trigerred fear in you that the market would fall further and you kept on waiting, till you became more confident and then exited at 4335.

Your reactions were perfectly normal. I empathise with you because till a year back, i would have done the same had i been in your position. Typically i used to exit a loss making long position at its low when i used to panic. What i have learnt is to control panic. You need to do the same.

In my own personal position , i did not panic as i was fully sure that nifty would rise. and of course it did.

As i have said earlier, i would need to know the full extend of your financial position before being able to guide you out. Also, when in a mess, one should be able to use all oppotunities to make money. Since i am not always writing here during trading hours you are loosing opportunities.
As an example, had you been on telephonic contact, i would have told you to exit when the market was below 4300 level itself. Trust me there was no fear today of the market falling (that should be evident from my posts that i was 100% confident of that)

If you trust my capabilities to bail you out, you need to be available on phone to me. In that case, i may be able to really help you out. You may send me your contact details through the private message.

Till then i will continue with the daily posts. Wait for tomorrow's posts. I will try my best to help you.

With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Trading Nifty review

Dear Friends,

As expected Nifty went up today, though it did open weak.
The unfortunate part is that nifty did not break past a resistance and lost part of the gains. Yet we are in a better position compared to before.

Today we did have great opportunities to buy, but since the funds mentioned in this thread (Rs.75000/-) do not permit to do so with two outsanding long positions, i am not taking that into account.

Current positions are as below

1.Nifty purchased at 4530 on 23/7/07 , current price 4317, M to M = -10650
2. Nifty purchased at 4410 on 30/07/07, sold on 31/7/07 at 4460, Net profit = 2500.
3. Nifty Sept series shorted at 4440 on 31/07/07, covered on 1/08/07 at 4340, Net profit = 5000/-
4. Nifty August series Long at 4330 on 1/8/07, Current price = 4317, M to M = - 650

Booked profit = 7500/- M to M loss 11300/- Net postion is Minus 3800/-

We still expect nifty to move up tomorrow, though we need to be careful of where nifty closes. So we may be forced to book profit in the nifty position taken at 4330 earlier than planned. things would become clearer once i analyse the hitch, that i think is possibly there.

Next post in the morning

With best wishes,
Gaurav Kumar

Next post tomorrow morning.

 

[pshirurkar]

Mr Gaurav Kumar,

I Really Appreciate Your Confidance And Clarity.

 

[rkkarnani]

Mr.Kumar,
Would it be correct to say that all the decisions are taken after a level is reached, nothing is predecided.
We donot know at what juncture would we be asked to book profits, at what level we have to take a hedge position and what that hedge position would be?
We shall have to wait for your REAL TIME guidance to take these actions!!
Regards

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Mr.Kumar,
Would it be correct to say that all the decisions are taken after a level is reached, nothing is predecided.
We donot know at what juncture would we be asked to book profits, at what level we have to take a hedge position and what that hedge position would be?
We shall have to wait for your REAL TIME guidance to take these actions!!
Regards

Dear RKKarnani,

Good to see you back.

Please read my posts carefully.

I had said that i plan to book profit on the second nifty at around 4400. This nifty was purchased at 4330. So it is preplanned.

My post yesterday had two points to say. one was that the market despite rising did not sustain above its resistance and fell back. It should rise today also, but i am concerned about its close today (today being a friday, it will be a weekly close and will determine further patterns).

You will note from my next post that i am totally transparent on what i do.

Of course, as far as the request my Mr. Ranjeet is concerned for help to get him out, i have told him that he needs to take advantage of all opportunities and hence should be available on phone as well as i should know his financial position in order to really help.

You will note that though on a personal level i did take advantage of a dip at the opening in the market yesterday, i did not show that advantage for the purpose of this thread. I could very well have written that i had purchased say a call at so and so rate and sold it higher and thus inflated my earnings for the thread, but you will note that i did not do any such thing. Any trade relevant to the thread done in market hours is posted during market hours.

It would be follish on my part not to take advantage of opportunities such as the one yesterday's opening gave when i was so sure that the market would go up. But it is impossible for me to write about all opportunities during market hours ( surely i would be taking advantage and watching the market rather than type away for this thread and loose the opportunity especially if the market is very volatile).

Finally, it means that if a golden opportunity/threat does come about in market hours such as the CRR hike, i have to react in market hours (could surely not have predicted the CRR hike and hence had to hedge during market hours when i got to know about it....i make no claims to be an astrologer)


Hope this satisfies you.

With best wishes,

Gaurav kumar

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Trading Nifty on 3rd Aug

Dear Friends,

(A request to RKKarnani to read this post very carefully).

I expect Nifty to rise again today. We may even see a level around 4400, which should be used to book a profit on the nifty purchased at 4330 (Please note all figures are for Nifty August series).

This is as per the present market pattern. Today being a friday, i am concerned about its close and if the market does retract from its rise, i would like to see its close above 4310. If it does not close above 4310, we may have to consider the possibility of the market going down to about 4200 next week. Thus the caution. This does not mean there is anything to be panicky about.

So this means that we need to have a strategy to tide over such a possibility. In order to do so, i would do either of the following.

1. Book profit only at 4400
2. I book a profit at 4350 (the resistance)

To be very fair and transparent, i propose that the exit level be considered at 4350 (for the nifty purchased at 4330) until and unless i send a post during market hours to the contrary. In case my post does come, members would be able to verify from the time of the post that i am not taking unfair advantage.

The above is to take care of the situation that i may not be able to write a post during market hours if i am not available.

Members would note that this means forgoing Rs. 50/- on the nifty, but so be it.

I have in my previous posts siad that it would be very difficult for me to bail out members, until and unless i know their full position including their finances. I have also said that it requires making use of real time opportunities to get out of trouble.

Since i normally do not get into trouble, i do not have to carry out too many trades, but sometimes do use a good opportunity to make some extra money. but that is not on a daily basis. The thread here is indicative of my strategies and on Nifty alone.

So if any member wants my help in getting out of trouble, he needs to contact me rather than depend on the thread alone.

With best wishes,

Gaurav Kumar

 

[Gaurav Kumar]

Mr.Kumar,
Would it be correct to say that all the decisions are taken after a level is reached, nothing is predecided.
We donot know at what juncture would we be asked to book profits, at what level we have to take a hedge position and what that hedge position would be?
We shall have to wait for your REAL TIME guidance to take these actions!!
Regards

Dear RKKarnani,

Sorry for having reacted again (it will take time to apreciate your questions as being questions rather than a war as i have got conditioned to your earlier posts. My apologies again)

With respect to what is the level to hedge and what the hedge position would be....

I think intraday movements should normally be ignored.. Of course some of them may be opportunities and it would be foolish to ignore those....or for that matter a development during market hours (adverse or favourable) that may lead to change in patterns may have to be reacted to.

Other than that, intraday movements are to be firmly ignored. On days when the market falls sharply and unusually, there may be occassions that i may tell my friends to switch off their terminals as watching the falling prices may make them take a decision in panic.

I think all decisions , whether taken during market hours or otherwise should be well thought of and not impulsive (impulsive decisions are often wrong).

Secondly, i believe, that the market movers want us to be impulsive. So do the brokers. My broker (RM) used to call me every time nifty would change 15-20 points with the news that market is going down or going up. I told him not to do so, but he persisted, till i threatened to switch to a new broker. It is very important not to be distracted by NOISE but to see the broad market patterns.

This does not in any way mean that i am perfect and do not take impulsive decisions. As and when i do, i regret most of those, and continually try to reduce such errors.

Last but not the least, yes due to the above, hedge levels depend on closing figures ( with exceptions such as the unexpected CRR hike), . The hedge instrument depends upon market patterns, likely market moves, as well as how fast the market would move. In addition available finances may put a constraint on the hedge instrument to be used.

So there is no single answer on hedge.

Finally, if everything was so simple, everybody would be making money, isn't it?. Secondary market is all about transfer of wealth. So the system survives by a few knowlegeable persons making money at the expense of the larger population. Of course to keep the interest of the larger poplulation alive, they must win once in a while, just like in gambling. So you have to be knowledgeable and very discilined in order to survive.

Hope you keep on posting..

with best wishes,

Gaurav Kumar