Trading Stock Options
- Thread starter chaitanyagoa
- Start date
Ok guys here we go some charts on Nifty buy signal occurred today according to the price volume activity.
Nifty predicted range for tomorrow
Projected high 5228.17
Projected Low 5155.52
Short term Trend Bullish
Resistance level 5213
Support level 5148
I have been hearing that Nifty has been going down on High volumes which to me doesn't seem like as Nifty has been trading around its average volumes if adjusted for 200 days volatility by taking into account the standard deviation at 95 percentile. To me the down move was a temporary correction in the Bull market than a beginning of the bear market. Volumes remain normal and you can see down volumes and up volumes in red and blue colors respectively in the above chart.
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However, Dow closing lower might spoil the party. The Dow moved up nicely today after opening down 65 points and recovered handsomely to fall again and close towards its low in the last one hour. This can mean profit booking or a short term trend reversal. If the volumes are high in the last hour it is a trend reversal and the next fall in the market can be aggressive. However, the European market futures holding on even after Dow's fall shows strength in the European Market. Germany which fell a lot due to the Greece problems has recovered faster than its fall. It is only 1.8% below its 52 week high which shows strength.
For now I believe in Indian market we might have a few sideways movements followed by the next trigger possibly up but will depend on how the Greek Bond issuance goes on the 19th of May. For the next coming days I expect profit booking in all the world markets and would use this opportunity to build long positions with a strict stop losses.
Some key factors:
Bond prices for European Nations
UK 107.35 Price went up as markets went up(Risk being taken by investors good for stock markets yield falling)
France again increase in BP 102.61
Germany flat (one of the safest bond in Europe)
Greece Bond price fell-impact on market---Greek stock market tumbled BP 92.21 however the fall today was not huge. Current BP 92.21- Market down 1.87%
Italy Rising BP Good sign as this is one of the troubled EU countries-101.43 the BP
Spain again BP went down thus lowering the stock markets BP 100.56 again not bad compared to recent days. A fall of 0.13%- Market down 1.11%
Swiss Bond prices went up stock market was closed.
Ok triggers according to the system I use are present in the excel file attached. However, I dont advice trading it straight away first you need to test whether my system works and how good is it. Hence I have organized the excel sheet in such a way that it works well for everyone. I like my VSA triggers more than 20DMA as it gives a good up run and most often than not results in a price reversal. However if the stop is triggered on it that also means you can take an opposite position in that security. It uses a surge in volume which shows a buying interest at the current levels followed by an upday. If this is not sustained, the fall can be aggressive and continue hence advised to go short if stopped out. You can place a double stop order than your buy quantity this will give you a good return following the system. For now paper trade it and follow the excel sheet and slowly you will get a hang of it.
My current positions
Indian Markets
Long IDBI, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Hind, Reliance, Orchid Chem, HCC, Unitech, ABAN, JP Associate and a few others.
World Markets
Long Switzerland since last friday @ 6100 levels
Copper@ 31800
Rio Tinto@ 34.50(Losing trade)
Japan@ 10500
Nifty predicted range for tomorrow
Projected high 5228.17
Projected Low 5155.52
Short term Trend Bullish
Resistance level 5213
Support level 5148
I have been hearing that Nifty has been going down on High volumes which to me doesn't seem like as Nifty has been trading around its average volumes if adjusted for 200 days volatility by taking into account the standard deviation at 95 percentile. To me the down move was a temporary correction in the Bull market than a beginning of the bear market. Volumes remain normal and you can see down volumes and up volumes in red and blue colors respectively in the above chart.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
However, Dow closing lower might spoil the party. The Dow moved up nicely today after opening down 65 points and recovered handsomely to fall again and close towards its low in the last one hour. This can mean profit booking or a short term trend reversal. If the volumes are high in the last hour it is a trend reversal and the next fall in the market can be aggressive. However, the European market futures holding on even after Dow's fall shows strength in the European Market. Germany which fell a lot due to the Greece problems has recovered faster than its fall. It is only 1.8% below its 52 week high which shows strength.
For now I believe in Indian market we might have a few sideways movements followed by the next trigger possibly up but will depend on how the Greek Bond issuance goes on the 19th of May. For the next coming days I expect profit booking in all the world markets and would use this opportunity to build long positions with a strict stop losses.
Some key factors:
Bond prices for European Nations
UK 107.35 Price went up as markets went up(Risk being taken by investors good for stock markets yield falling)
France again increase in BP 102.61
Germany flat (one of the safest bond in Europe)
Greece Bond price fell-impact on market---Greek stock market tumbled BP 92.21 however the fall today was not huge. Current BP 92.21- Market down 1.87%
Italy Rising BP Good sign as this is one of the troubled EU countries-101.43 the BP
Spain again BP went down thus lowering the stock markets BP 100.56 again not bad compared to recent days. A fall of 0.13%- Market down 1.11%
Swiss Bond prices went up stock market was closed.
Ok triggers according to the system I use are present in the excel file attached. However, I dont advice trading it straight away first you need to test whether my system works and how good is it. Hence I have organized the excel sheet in such a way that it works well for everyone. I like my VSA triggers more than 20DMA as it gives a good up run and most often than not results in a price reversal. However if the stop is triggered on it that also means you can take an opposite position in that security. It uses a surge in volume which shows a buying interest at the current levels followed by an upday. If this is not sustained, the fall can be aggressive and continue hence advised to go short if stopped out. You can place a double stop order than your buy quantity this will give you a good return following the system. For now paper trade it and follow the excel sheet and slowly you will get a hang of it.
My current positions
Indian Markets
Long IDBI, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Hind, Reliance, Orchid Chem, HCC, Unitech, ABAN, JP Associate and a few others.
World Markets
Long Switzerland since last friday @ 6100 levels
Copper@ 31800
Rio Tinto@ 34.50(Losing trade)
Japan@ 10500
Last edited:
Ok what we saw yesterday on Dow was a proper test of supply. The supply in the market has been removed completely and no1 more selling was taking place at those levels. Now Dow closing up with 200 points rally from the low definitely suggests the change in direction. Please remember dow has already gained 3% from its low last week. We will soon follow but right now it is in side ways trend the removal of supply might take the markets higher. The only reason why we were falling so far was when the EU announced plan shorters paniced and ran for cover but that led the bankers or smart money miss the oppurtunity as dow opened gap up dow has filled the gap yesterday and now looking to resume is path of uptrend. We might have couple more down days to see further test of supply but that would be on very low volumes and the market from here in should rally the dow low of 10430 can be used as a stop to go long on all the world markets except China which is dancing to its own tune.
Please check a similar bar appeared in first week of feb and since then dow rallied i have marked this on the chart. I am optimisitc and have been for a while. Although the few triggers i posted last time around went wrong and stops were hit. I expect the nifty to trade up max downside of todays low which should be used as stop and reverse position trade.
Ftse upto date data including todays so far:
I am waiting for a cross of 5400 to add more to the bullish position. And a breach of the trendline which is very much possible considering how close it is to the bottom might make me add short positions. But so far looking very good, bullish. Gained 3.5% last week looking for similar gains this week.
Please check a similar bar appeared in first week of feb and since then dow rallied i have marked this on the chart. I am optimisitc and have been for a while. Although the few triggers i posted last time around went wrong and stops were hit. I expect the nifty to trade up max downside of todays low which should be used as stop and reverse position trade.
Ftse upto date data including todays so far:
I am waiting for a cross of 5400 to add more to the bullish position. And a breach of the trendline which is very much possible considering how close it is to the bottom might make me add short positions. But so far looking very good, bullish. Gained 3.5% last week looking for similar gains this week.
Last edited:
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