Trading Strategies Using Technical Analysis

Which date should the meet be held?

  • February 27th 2011

    Votes: 19 59.4%
  • March 6th 2011

    Votes: 8 25.0%
  • March 13th 2011

    Votes: 5 15.6%

  • Total voters
    32
  • Poll closed .

SwingKing

Well-Known Member
Tomorrow, take the trade in Dabur in Equities segment. We will wait for a little longer to get into Sintex as the risk - reward is still not favorable. I want to highlight one more important aspect here. So, just read this carefully.

Now, those who are regular to this thread, must be noticing that I discourage sometimes to trade in futures for some stocks. Whereas, I encourage sometimes to trade in futures for some other stocks. I want to highlight the reason behind this. We will assume the account size to be of 10 Lac

We recently traded GSPL, where I had mentioned that futures segment poses significant risk for this stock and hence risk averse traders should trade in Equities. Let us walk through some numbers here. GSPL had a contract size of 4000. We entered around 113.5 and got out today around 110. That gives us a loss of 3.5 Rs + commissions. If we assume commissions in futures to be 0.03% each side, then our total loss would be [(113.5 - 110)*4000 + (113.5*0.03*4000)/100 + (110*0.03*4000) /100]. This amounts to loss of 14268. That is, when we deal in futures. This would roughly be 1.42 % of entire equity size of Rs 10 Lac. Under risk management rules, this is acceptable.

Lets look at the Equities scenario. Here, if we did a probe test with 1000 quantities, assuming the same exit and entry price (commissions at 0.3% each side), it would have resulted in a loss of [(113.5 - 110)*1000 + (113.5*0.3*1000)/100 + (110*0.3*1000) /100] Rs 4200. This would roughly be 0.4 % of the entire equity size of Rs 10 Lac. Under the risk management rules, this is something exceptional. Remember guys as traders, we want to avoid our losses being meaningful and want to ensure that our profits our meaningful.

Some of you must be wondering that our position size was small and hence our loss was small. This is true. But what if we add the similar amount of positions (that is, 4000) when the stock begins to move in our direction. Wont that be great? Well, definitely. We can always begin small (but begin meaningfully) and can always increase the position size. Point to remember is that the first position size should be big enough to make an impact at your equity. If GSPL has moved up 10 Rs, then gain of 10,000 Rs (1000*10) is meaningful as it forms 1% of your equity.

Going by the similar notion, trade Dabur tomorrow with Equity size which is meaningful to your portfolio. If the trade goes in our favor, we can add positions when stock begins to move in our favor. If you like to discuss your optimal position size and cannot disclose your portfolio size in the forum, you can always PM me.

Hope this helps.

Tc
 
Go Long in Dabur Tomorrow.

SL currently at 104 - 105 on EOD basis.

Risk to reward is again in favor.

Will let you guys know whether to trade in Futures or Equities in Sometime.

Update: Trade it in Equities. We can control the risk more.

Tc
 
Tomorrow, take the trade in Dabur in Equities segment. We will wait for a little longer to get into Sintex as the risk - reward is still not favorable. I want to highlight one more important aspect here. So, just read this carefully.

Now, those who are regular to this thread, must be noticing that I discourage sometimes to trade in futures for some stocks. Whereas, I encourage sometimes to trade in futures for some other stocks. I want to highlight the reason behind this. We will assume the account size to be of 10 Lac

We recently traded GSPL, where I had mentioned that futures segment poses significant risk for this stock and hence risk averse traders should trade in Equities. Let us walk through some numbers here. GSPL had a contract size of 4000. We entered around 113.5 and got out today around 110. That gives us a loss of 3.5 Rs + commissions. If we assume commissions in futures to be 0.03% each side, then our total loss would be [(113.5 - 110)*4000 + (113.5*0.03*4000)/100 + (110*0.03*4000) /100]. This amounts to loss of 14268. That is, when we deal in futures. This would roughly be 1.42 % of entire equity size of Rs 10 Lac. Under risk management rules, this is acceptable.

Lets look at the Equities scenario. Here, if we did a probe test with 1000 quantities, assuming the same exit and entry price (commissions at 0.3% each side), it would have resulted in a loss of [(113.5 - 110)*1000 + (113.5*0.3*1000)/100 + (110*0.3*1000) /100] Rs 4200. This would roughly be 0.4 % of the entire equity size of Rs 10 Lac. Under the risk management rules, this is something exceptional. Remember guys as traders, we want to avoid our losses being meaningful and want to ensure that our profits our meaningful.

Some of you must be wondering that our position size was small and hence our loss was small. This is true. But what if we add the similar amount of positions (that is, 4000) when the stock begins to move in our direction. Wont that be great? Well, definitely. We can always begin small (but begin meaningfully) and can always increase the position size. Point to remember is that the first position size should be big enough to make an impact at your equity. If GSPL has moved up 10 Rs, then gain of 10,000 Rs (1000*10) is meaningful as it forms 1% of your equity.

Going by the similar notion, trade Dabur tomorrow with Equity size which is meaningful to your portfolio. If the trade goes in our favor, we can add positions when stock begins to move in our favor. If you like to discuss your optimal position size and cannot disclose your portfolio size in the forum, you can always PM me.

Hope this helps.

Tc
You have provided SL, but what is the target for tomorrow? :)
 

SwingKing

Well-Known Member
You have provided SL, but what is the target for tomorrow? :)
Prashant,

We don't do day trading here. We are into Swing Trading. Profits can range from 5 -10%. We don't sell till the price shows weakness. Hence, sometimes profits are even more. That's not the point though. The main point is to limit risk. That's why, I promote risk here, not targets.

Tc
 

crown

Well-Known Member
The put call open interest and nifty chart analysis indicating that 6000 has again become a good support level to create[fresh]/hold long positions. However, I am not able to find the target. The close above 6074 can initiate a short term upside rally for 6180, required the volumes should be low.
 

FanaticTrader

Well-Known Member
Raunak and friends,

My little bit of analysis on UNITECH shows a strong buy signal at cmp, with a SL of 84. If its for a longer version then my sl is 79.

May be i would be entirely wrong, hence i place here for final verdict, so that i could act upon.

Thanks and regards
Saivenkat:)
Well on charts it looks as if Unitech might just find stiff resistance at 90-91 levels (connecting highs made on 10th Aug & 17th September). So my thoughts on this would be close above 91-91.50 would only propel fresh buying as it would not only topple immediate top on daily charts but also on weekly charts. :)
 

crown

Well-Known Member
Raunak and friends,

My little bit of analysis on UNITECH shows a strong buy signal at cmp, with a SL of 84. If its for a longer version then my sl is 79.

May be i would be entirely wrong, hence i place here for final verdict, so that i could act upon.

Thanks and regards
Saivenkat:)
Saivenkat bhai

Unitech, in my opinion, is not a good stock to trade in either side. Currently, its upside is reasonably capped and please don't go by the 'TV channels documentary on Unitech which are expecting some very huge returns on it. It is very much possible that it may move upside, but on charts Unitech is not a good stock to enter long at this stage.
 

crown

Well-Known Member
Saivenkat bro

Try giving some thought on Shoppers Stop. May be it can provide some good opportunity to enter at reasonable level for a short term(1-3 weeks) trade. I will also be looking for the same, and if found, will be sharing overhere for guidance.
 

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