A trader who is scared to get a bad trade has already lost the battle. Its like a professional batsman who likes to blame the pitch for his bad performance.
Before we trade any system, even a black box system, we need to see how it performs by doing a BAR replay for at least few months. Watch it live for 1-2 weeks and then gain confidence and only then trade it. There is no excuse for not knowing how a system works under various phases.
The outcome of a particular trade is always unknown. But over a series of trades taken with a system, the outcome has an edge if the system handles the exits very well. With this system i know very well that if a trade goes wrong, the worst case, my loss with be 12 points. It will give me an exit before that 12 point stop is hit. I know that my system wont let me have big losses, which leave only 3 more possibilities left on the table. Either i have a minor profit, minor loss or a big profit. Minor losses will be taken care of by the minor profits leaving the big ones to add to my profit.
Stats says 57% of the trade are profitable and that means i know out of the 6 trades, only 2-3 will be winners. I give myself a 20% slippage on the maximum points system throws at me after deducting cost of transaction @ 0.03% on each leg (brokerage + taxes) from each trade. I have given myself that room for bad trades.
just my 1 cent...!
Before we trade any system, even a black box system, we need to see how it performs by doing a BAR replay for at least few months. Watch it live for 1-2 weeks and then gain confidence and only then trade it. There is no excuse for not knowing how a system works under various phases.
The outcome of a particular trade is always unknown. But over a series of trades taken with a system, the outcome has an edge if the system handles the exits very well. With this system i know very well that if a trade goes wrong, the worst case, my loss with be 12 points. It will give me an exit before that 12 point stop is hit. I know that my system wont let me have big losses, which leave only 3 more possibilities left on the table. Either i have a minor profit, minor loss or a big profit. Minor losses will be taken care of by the minor profits leaving the big ones to add to my profit.
Stats says 57% of the trade are profitable and that means i know out of the 6 trades, only 2-3 will be winners. I give myself a 20% slippage on the maximum points system throws at me after deducting cost of transaction @ 0.03% on each leg (brokerage + taxes) from each trade. I have given myself that room for bad trades.
just my 1 cent...!