WEEK AHEAD
Key Q4 results, FII activity to dictate trend
Results from top companies and the Indian Depository Receipt (IDR) issue of Standard Chartered Bank will be focus next week at a time when risk aversion has caused sustained selling of Indian stocks by foreigners. Volatility may remain high as traders roll over positions in the derivatives segment from May 2010 series to June 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near-month May 2010 contracts on Thursday, 27 May 2010.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have sold shares worth a net Rs 9908.08 crore so far this month, till 21 May 2010, according to data from the stock exchanges. They had bought stocks worth a net Rs 2667.35 crore last month. Domestic funds have bought stocks worth a net Rs 4103.47 crore so far this month, till 21 May 2010.
Fundamentally, a correction in global commodity prices triggered by euro zone fiscal worries has reduced pressure on interest rates in India with 10-year bond yield hitting its lowest level in nearly 6 months. Also on the flip side, large collections from the sale of 3G mobile spectrum licenses will help reduce fiscal deficit this year. The government has mopped up almost Rs 70000 crore from the sale of 3G spectrum, which is twice the projected revenue. The government is also about to commence auctions for pan-India licenses for broadband wireless access (BWA) services, which could possibly generate another Rs 15,000 crore or more.
The progress of the monsoon is also important. India's monsoon rains are on track to hit the country's southern coast on 30 May 2010, and the Laila cyclone in the Bay of Bengal would not derail the vital June-September rainfall, a weather office spokesman told a news agency on Thursday, 20 May 2010. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in late April 2010 said rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long-term average. Good monsoon rains would help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation.
The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country's farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The quantum of rainfall in the crucial sowing month of July and distribution of rainfall during the monsoon season also holds key.
Key corporate results will be focus. Sun Pharma and Tata Power unveil Q4 results on Monday, 24 May 2010. On Tuesday, 25 May 2010, Hindustan Unilever and Power Grid Corporation will announce results. Bharat Heavy Electricals and Tata Steel are due to report earnings on Wednesday, 26 May 2010. BPCL, Cairn India, Tata Motors will unveil results on Thursday, 27 May 2010.
ONGC, Steel Authority of India and Unitech are due to reports earnings on Friday, 28 May 2010, to be followed by M&M and Suzlon Energy on Saturday, 29 May 2010 and Jaiprakash Associates on Sunday 30 May 2010.
The fourth quarter corporate results have been decent. The combined net profit of a total of 2,241 companies rose 24.2% to Rs 57376 crore on 24.4% rise in sales to Rs 576516 crore in the quarter ended March 2010 over the quarter ended March 2009.
Asia-focussed British bank Standard Chartered's Indian Depository Receipt (IDR) issue opens for bidding on 25 May 2010. The issue closes on 28 May 2010. StanChart will issue 240 million IDRs, with every 10 IDRs representing one share of Standard Chartered Plc. StanChart's IDR is the first issue of its kind in India. Like American or Global Depository Receipts, where Indian companies raise resources overseas, IDRs enable foreign companies to do the same in India.
Standard Chartered is listed in London and Hong Kong. As per the Securities and Exchange Board of India's guidelines, IDRs can be issued by companies that have been listed in the home market for a minimum of three years and have registered a profit in at least three of the five years before the issue.
On the macro front, the government will unveil Q4 March 2010 GDP growth data on 31 May 2010.