Trading with Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)

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bunny

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When did u say Hindalco, Tata Steel, Herohonda are going to go up? Your analysis of Nifty is not that correct. U said bearish since 4700 and now we are at 4851. Today lots of shorts were triggered only after reaching the major resistance at 4920 levels. Also in the morning when Nifty started to fall it was more to do with the European Markets which were red but now they are green and so is Dow futures. If u see the volumes today it was significantly lower than the last weeks.

U said JP associate is going to go down it went up to 135 levels today at one stage.

Futures is in Premium I believe the breakout is on the cards. Most of the world markets except China which was closed for the entire week last week have all gone up by 3-4% except our markets it looks good to go up.

I respect your analysis but I still dont get the reason behind your call. Just saying u feel is not that correct. If you have spotted something please share with us. Many thanks
Hi Nimish,
You did not get the reason behind that post. That post is not as straight forward as it seems to you. I request you to ignore those particulars lines, or that post in total. No, I did not say that HEROHONDA, and other 2 stocks will be going up. I was bearish(and continue to be) on them, and the market in general.

Yes, I have given the bear call when NIFTY was trading at 4700 levels and been premature on giving the call since NIFTY is still trading higher. I find it difficult to be correct every another day. Hence, I am maintaining a one-way opinion that does not change every two or three days.

The reason for all the repetitive bear calls is that I am seeing clear signs of weakness in the NSE's top 100 liquid stocks. This is true for all the bear calls given till date. As long as weakness is seen, I will continue to be bearish.

The weakness seen in the background just does not go away within few bars. Markets can be marked up temporarily depending upon how opportunity(most commonly "Global Markets") presents itself. However, the weakness will manifest itself. If there is weakness in our markets, foreign markets cannot resolve it in a day. If you check my views, I have been giving them well before the U.S. markets open and close. Also, you know how volatile the U.S. indices have been lately.

On Friday, when we had violently recovered from -80 to -10(and closed -42), most of them had suddenly become bullish to a great extent. However, I had seen significant professional selling into the up bar and hence had taken a bearish view of the market.(Please let me know if I should attach the chart)

Today morning, when Asia was trading 3% higher, I was kind of "shaken out" of my bearish view, but remembered that I had spotted professional selling into up bar on Friday which is a major sign of weakness. And true to the weakness, we couldn't maintain the levels and came down sharply.
 

bunny

Well-Known Member
On Friday, when we had violently recovered from -80 to -10(and closed -42), most of them had suddenly become bullish to a great extent. However, I had seen significant professional selling into the up bar and hence had taken a bearish view of the market.(Please let me know if I should attach the chart)
Here is the chart for anyone who is interested.
 
When did u say Hindalco, Tata Steel, Herohonda are going to go up? Your analysis of Nifty is not that correct. U said bearish since 4700 and now we are at 4851. Today lots of shorts were triggered only after reaching the major resistance at 4920 levels. Also in the morning when Nifty started to fall it was more to do with the European Markets which were red but now they are green and so is Dow futures. If u see the volumes today it was significantly lower than the last weeks.

U said JP associate is going to go down it went up to 135 levels today at one stage.

Futures is in Premium I believe the breakout is on the cards. Most of the world markets except China which was closed for the entire week last week have all gone up by 3-4% except our markets it looks good to go up.

I respect your analysis but I still dont get the reason behind your call. Just saying u feel is not that correct. If you have spotted something please share with us. Many thanks
:thumb:
and as per VSA lower volumes at these levels clearly indicates diluted efforts of bears [profit booking and regular shorting at resistance levels]

sir, I beg to differ. I wanted to respond during morning but did not so as to take time to understand what you are saying and also to see if the market is responding as you have analyzed.

JP associates - since 5th feb, the stock is taking its support with volumes. Now the volumes are reducing while the stock is moving up; that is selling pressure is not there on the up move. it is likely to touch 138-143 within next couple of weeks.

HDFC Bank - double bottom with strong volumes. Today's volumes are less while the candle denotes selling pressure. But the selling pressure is backed up by very low volumes; in other words, it is not gonna make downmove successful. 1700-1750 are expected targets for it within next couple of weeks.

Sterlite - still doubtful regarding any upmove; but even then could not be shorted. the bulls and bears are at par as per the todays candle; the downside is very limited while the upside is open. any positive move with volumes may cause pain to shorters.

Unitech - chart speak of itself. strong volume upside white candle with support in back ground. no stoppage till 80, thereafter, it has to be analysed again. shorting can be troublesome.


Nifty - very risky at this time to go short. Today's volumes were less but the bar was quite positive. It may denote two things, either the upmove is not backed up with proper volumes OR the backing up with volumes have already been there in the back ground. I am depnding upon the latter. If foreign markets donot play any joke, there is no stopping in nifty till 4876 and then 4951.

Out of four scripts which I analysed as per VSA, two have successfully completed the targets viz. JP associates and HDFC Bank
Remaining two i.e. Unitech and sterlite are still keeping their support and are expected to initiate their upside journey in recent future
 

bunny

Well-Known Member
S&P CNX NIFTY: Volumes on 23 Feb 2010

The index has closed 13.65 pts higher at 4870.05. Volumes on S&P CNX NIFTY were slightly less 130 mn. This is the lowest volume recorded in the past 6 months. Volume in NIFTY futures was marginally higher than yesterday, where as that in NIFTY options was comparable to yesterday. The volume is lower in cash markets but higher in derivatives.
 

bunny

Well-Known Member
Re: S&P CNX NIFTY: Volumes on 23 Feb 2010

The index has closed 13.65 pts higher at 4870.05. Volumes on S&P CNX NIFTY were slightly less 130 mn. This is the lowest volume recorded in the past 6 months. Volume in NIFTY futures was marginally higher than yesterday, where as that in NIFTY options was comparable to yesterday. The volume is lower in cash markets but higher in derivatives.
I am still bearish on this market.
 

nimish_rulz

Well-Known Member
Re: S&P CNX NIFTY: Volumes on 23 Feb 2010

I am still bearish on this market.
I am seeing lot of accumulation on the down bars. Today it opened lowered most of the Asian Markets were lower yet closed positive. I think we may have a mega rally like post elections lwe had in May. There are far too many people who are bearish plus tons of shorts in the markets there is bound to be a breakout on the other side.
 

bunny

Well-Known Member
Re: S&P CNX NIFTY: Volumes on 23 Feb 2010

I am seeing lot of accumulation on the down bars. Today it opened lowered most of the Asian Markets were lower yet closed positive. I think we may have a mega rally like post elections lwe had in May. There are far too many people who are bearish plus tons of shorts in the markets there is bound to be a breakout on the other side.
Hi Nimish,

I am not sure how you have concluded this, but I assume that this is because you have seen high volume on some down bars in recent bars.

Lets assume that there will be an rally on budget. This means that today we are in the last days of accumulation. So we are now expecting that the professionals will have accumulated all the stock and taken a bullish view on the market.To have a successful rally, all the floating supply must have been absorbed by the professionals. But if you have seen high volume in the recent bars, doesn't it mean that there is still floating supply in the market?

One of the "Differential Diagnosis" of such high-volume wide-spread down bars can be "Effort to go down". The stock may be approaching a supportive trend line and the high volume couples with wide spreads may be the efforts to break below that trendline.
 
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