Trading with Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)

[chaitanyagoa]

Re: S&P CNX NIFTY: Volumes on 23 Feb 2010

Hi Chaitanya,

Thanks for dropping in.

I do not maintain charts of indexes and futures due to technical difficulties. I did have a look at major Banking and IT stocks. Most of these stocks are showing signs of weakness. If you wish, I can share comments on all those 32 banking and 20 CNX IT stocks.

As far as a budget rally is concerned, I cannot comment on it. Rallies can occur in weak markets too, as a trap for long traders and to shakeout short traders. Even a strong market can be marked down on important events. Better to close your positions and take a holiday than stress yourself so much about something that you have no control on.

Bunny,

I will have a look at the major banking and IT stocks in a day or two and then may be we can share our Opinions.... I am positive about the rally mostly because of the Positive outlook of the US markets...... The US markets have been doing really well and we have been under-performing..... So let me check the Individual stocks before i throw my mouth around...:lol:

Thanks

 

[nimish_rulz]

Re: S&P CNX NIFTY: Volumes on 23 Feb 2010

Bunny,

I will have a look at the major banking and IT stocks in a day or two and then may be we can share our Opinions.... I am positive about the rally mostly because of the Positive outlook of the US markets...... The US markets have been doing really well and we have been under-performing..... So let me check the Individual stocks before i throw my mouth around...:lol:

Thanks

Nifty is preparing a spring board for the jump. Check the FIIs and DIIs buying positive for the last 1.5 weeks. I still maintain my bullish stance on all the world markets. Dow made an amazing reversal today after losing all its gain after the drop is house prices it is up again almost 1% regaining all its losses from yesterday. The only sad part is Markets are closed for HOLI.

The great part is this year everyone is already expecting a below par budget due to the huge Fiscal deficit of the Indian government. Well this in itself can provide a rally if the FM decides to reduce the fiscal deficit. The world market would look at India as a safer investment country with reducing fiscal deficit. Also our deficit is 80% internal. And since the news gets discounted as soon as it arrives and any news on the lines of reduction in fiscal deficit would prove positive because the current market scenario around the world is of credit contagion. Anyways I believe Dow to will have to spend sometime around 10300-10450 levels as happened in November. It will wait for the other world indicies to catch up before showing another break. I would be long dow with a stop of 10250. FTSE is the most bullish of all the markets clearing its 50dma and 20 dma. Considering its closing high is only 200 points away which is less than 4%. Switzerland is already close to its 52 week high.

Hong Kong finally mustering up some strength and it would be soon shown by China.


However, This week still is very crucial as lots of economic data yet to come. But I am very optimistic about Job claims this week that it will go down due to the heavy snow in US. But lets see if it actually happens or not.

 

[niludeepak]

what smart money is trying to do is that they are trying sellers to complete all their selling before the smart money can start to raise the market again.

on 21feb they tested the markets but the vol was high (read nifty for markets),sellers are still left

so they reverse tested , something i ve conceived, market on the next day 22feb, lo aur jitna bechna hai bech lo, i ve come to this conclusion from intraday charts of 22 feb , they opened 60 pts up the nifty /market to top during just the opening 10-15 min,this pulling up opening up 60 points i think only can be done by pros,
and then the markets fell,when found that market has fell a bit
they just pulled up the markets considerably only for 2-3 bars intraday and let us fight the sellers, the sellers could pull the market down in pieces slowly, but the smart ones just pulled the markets up in 2-3-4 bars ,3-4 times during the whole day,

this intentional opening on the up an letting sellers to deplete themselves,and 3-4 times pulling up of the markets to again let sellers deplete themselves can be done only by pros,

on the next day 23 feb they opened below to just flat to find whether there are still any sellers left, sellers were almost finished,and market ended flat,

today 24 feb also they tried to do the same opened below to flat, and let the sellers do the selling, if selling would have been more, as volume suggests,which is more than yesterday, nifty should have fell, which it hasnt to that extent, so i m bullish about the whole thing.

this vsa is a very vague analysis , and is bound to be made deceiving by smart money, i do not want to claim that i ve understood, pl bear if i go wrong.

 

[bunny]

PHARMA stocks(CIPLA, DIVISLAB, RANBAXY and SUNPHARMA) are presenting a decent opportunity to short sell.

 

[niludeepak]

one thing that tom williams has emphasised again and again is that we should look for signs of strength when markets are down and signs of weakness after any time period of upwards movement

i am not trying to act knowingness, but what i ve understud is that we need to find diversion of close and spread against volume
jab close ya spread upar ya jada ho par vol kam ho,
ya close ya spread niche ya kam ho aur vol jada ho,
TAB KAAN KHARE KARNE CHAHIYE,

volume yani smart money's interest,
opening and initial few minutes' price also conveys smart money intention which almost every often than not will be deceiving,
any big price candle is put forward by market makers to deceive us
gap bhi market makers hi banate hain

whole vsa is a very vague thing, and background (historical) noise is very important
at the same time it unfolds at every bar so sud be paid attention to

 

[bunny]

Volume in cash market is higher than yesterday. Options market activity has spiked. Today's spread in NIFTY spot is very slightly narrower than yesterday.

 

[niludeepak]

today in nifty fut,they opened a bit higher to deplete sellers and vol was constantly high, so they ate up all the selling till about 10 o clock,then the market was sideways for about 3 and 1/2 hr with one good testing on low vol, whenever i see sharp falls or ups i assume this to be smart money doing,

sadhe tin ghante tak low vol me side ways chalne ka matlab hai ki pro sell nahin kar rahe the, aur bears bhi sell nahi kar rahe the,

then they pulled the market up to 4875 where sellers came out to bring markets down to 4844 etc, all their selling was absorbed and then they pulled the market up to ltp at 4860 again

all 'they' is to be read as smart money

 

[niludeepak]

hum log jis position me hote hain hame market waisa hi dikhta hai, tom williams ne isliye kaha hai ki beger koi position banaye aur beger kisi ko recommed karke hi market ko samjha ja sakta hai, kyoki agar aap koi recommendation kar te hain to ab us tarah se hi market ko dekhne ke liye biased ho jate hain

aaj ka upward movement hum bull position walo ke liye breather jaisa ho gaya hai, ab hamara sl thoda dur chala gaya hai jaise sayad 4830 ya 4800 ya 4780 ya 4750

i tried to see intraday graph of all the nifty stocks in the same perspective, and found 35 of the 50 to have strength, it sud not be assumed that they all will go up, but they have inherent strength,

u will understand if i tell that yesterday i had found strength in 26 shares out of nifty, 14 passed, 11 failed to go up today, 2 fell less than .5%, 11 stocks which i didnt assume faired up outside from my list,
i emphasise that the list is not so imp, but strength in so many of stocks is important, because they rotate the stocks and the sectors keeping the strength in potential that can be used whenever needed

 

[bunny]

hum log jis position me hote hain hame market waisa hi dikhta hai, tom williams ne isliye kaha hai ki beger koi position banaye aur beger kisi ko recommed karke hi market ko samjha ja sakta hai, kyoki agar aap koi recommendation kar te hain to ab us tarah se hi market ko dekhne ke liye biased ho jate hain

aaj ka upward movement hum bull position walo ke liye breather jaisa ho gaya hai, ab hamara sl thoda dur chala gaya hai jaise sayad 4830 ya 4800 ya 4780 ya 4750

i tried to see intraday graph of all the nifty stocks in the same perspective, and found 35 of the 50 to have strength, it sud not be assumed that they all will go up, but they have inherent strength,

u will understand if i tell that yesterday i had found strength in 26 shares out of nifty, 14 passed, 11 failed to go up today, 2 fell less than .5%, 11 stocks which i didnt assume faired up outside from my list,
i emphasise that the list is not so imp, but strength in so many of stocks is important, because they rotate the stocks and the sectors keeping the strength in potential that can be used whenever needed

Please post in English.

 

[bunny]

Just before the Budget session

A very few stocks have been showing signs of strength. I still have my reservations on them. Others are mostly showings signs of weakness. Bearish opinion continues.

I still have a bearish view on the market.