Trading with Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)
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S&P CNX NIFTY is trading 2% after I had recommended shorting it. I must admit, this has come as a profound rude shock to me. I am still bearish, however it is foolish to hold hope that "today will be the last day of this bullish leg". Its is not a matter of "today", but this will develop into a self-destructive tendency if continued. Since I couldn't prevent the rape, I will now try to enjoy it. I am now trying to capitalize on my flaws, instead of trying of trying to develop it further.
If my analysis can be consistently wrong no matter how hard I try, then my trading could be consistently winning by doing the opposite! Hence I am calling it the "Flaw system". Basically, I will fight myself, and still try to make money from it.
This thread will continue. Infact, this thread will be the base of all trading ideas posted in the "Flaw system". I can be bearish in this thread, and still advise long in that thread.
Link: Flaw system
If my analysis can be consistently wrong no matter how hard I try, then my trading could be consistently winning by doing the opposite! Hence I am calling it the "Flaw system". Basically, I will fight myself, and still try to make money from it.
This thread will continue. Infact, this thread will be the base of all trading ideas posted in the "Flaw system". I can be bearish in this thread, and still advise long in that thread.
Link: Flaw system
A piece of advice bunny. I am not asking you to change your system. VSA is good. But as i already said earlier that you cant take the entry according to VSA. you can calculate weather the trend is weak, strong or sideways, but for the entry and exit purposes dont apply it. You should have some other method for your precise entry and precise exit. Merge it with VSA and see the results. Good trading will be only when, you have the right entry and right exit. Even if the trade is in loss, but right entry and exit is what matters. You should cut your losses and let your profit runs, but you are doing the exact opposite. Even in the books of VSA it is clearly mentioned that if you try to fight the trend then you will bankrupt yourself.
I cant see a single trader who works on the flaw system, although i havent visited the thread. No body will act opposite to the ones thinking. To get benefit from the system, you have to have acceptance to the change, which you are resisting at every moment. Yesterdays 100 point move was total sign of strength and gapup was already predicted as budget effect was over. 5000 was the barrier to be crossed. Just to support the bearish market you overlooked every other points. I wont try to discuss any trendline, indicator, support and resistance levels here, but when you trade you must look at all the factors and indicators supporting your views.
Just a piece of advice.
I cant see a single trader who works on the flaw system, although i havent visited the thread. No body will act opposite to the ones thinking. To get benefit from the system, you have to have acceptance to the change, which you are resisting at every moment. Yesterdays 100 point move was total sign of strength and gapup was already predicted as budget effect was over. 5000 was the barrier to be crossed. Just to support the bearish market you overlooked every other points. I wont try to discuss any trendline, indicator, support and resistance levels here, but when you trade you must look at all the factors and indicators supporting your views.
Just a piece of advice.
Hi Rajputz,
Now I really do not want to change a system which if reversed can generate handsome profits. It the accuracy was 50:50, it would be a bad system, but if the accuracy of my analysis is low, then I seen no harm in acting counter to it.
Such things are good to boost our morale, but over a period of time, being inflexible and not accepting your flaws will only prove destructive.
Let me ask my self? I want to "be right" or "make money"? Everyone wants to make money. Let me not stay behind.
May be nobody has a system or setup that fails 90% of the times. Lets do what makes us money instead of hoping that tomorrow the trade will be in our favor.
Lets not get into this. I have already provided a chart where I have show the weakness, and I stand by it. RELIANCE, the big boy, has again shown weakness as it had shown yesterday. Similar is seen in other constituent stocks. I still maintain my bearish view, but I believe that if it can go up today in spite of showing weakness yesterday, then it can also go up tomorrow in spite of showing weakness today.
The probability of picking a top is so low, that whenever you feel like you have picked a top, you can comfortably go long. Similar for bottoms.
I am sticking to my bearish view, but instead of getting crushed by what I feel is manipulation, I will try to profit from it. I don't see any problem with doing oppositely, if that is where money will come from.
Now I really do not want to change a system which if reversed can generate handsome profits. It the accuracy was 50:50, it would be a bad system, but if the accuracy of my analysis is low, then I seen no harm in acting counter to it.
Such things are good to boost our morale, but over a period of time, being inflexible and not accepting your flaws will only prove destructive.
Let me ask my self? I want to "be right" or "make money"? Everyone wants to make money. Let me not stay behind.
May be nobody has a system or setup that fails 90% of the times. Lets do what makes us money instead of hoping that tomorrow the trade will be in our favor.
Lets not get into this. I have already provided a chart where I have show the weakness, and I stand by it. RELIANCE, the big boy, has again shown weakness as it had shown yesterday. Similar is seen in other constituent stocks. I still maintain my bearish view, but I believe that if it can go up today in spite of showing weakness yesterday, then it can also go up tomorrow in spite of showing weakness today.
The probability of picking a top is so low, that whenever you feel like you have picked a top, you can comfortably go long. Similar for bottoms.
I am sticking to my bearish view, but instead of getting crushed by what I feel is manipulation, I will try to profit from it. I don't see any problem with doing oppositely, if that is where money will come from.
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