Useful Tools

[SGM]

hi amitt,

...........

if this be the result on a day like this, where not only negative sentiment prevails but also at levels, as high like this, don't you think its high time we say "NO NEED OF CAUTION".

mundane things says a lot more. but till then ..........

cheers,
jdm.

Hello JDM

Was wondering what would your exploration have shown from Monday 8th May to Wednusday 10th May 2006.

But some how i feel, same conclusions would be drawn then "NO NEED OF CAUTION".

@ Amit

When can/will we finally put behind (invalidate) this Wave B thingy? or will it only be confirmed after 3800? (if at all)

Regards
Sanjay

 

[amitt29]

Hi,Sanjay very good question.
I have probable answer(s).I will try to use less of Elliott.
1)Movement of this rally(sluggish)gains diminishing per week.
2)IN EW if this is a new impulse(rising)it will fluctuate,in intraday try to trap bears,what this does is opens up and holds.
3)No volumes,look at midcap chart along with Nifty after the crash u will notice that this ralyy aint broadbased.
4)lastly (this is my brainchild),the actual target(if this was wave B)was at 61.8 or 3329.This has exceeded it.It is my belief that since inflation has risen by about 25% from May to August thats y this rally has extended its brief.And has been sluggish

For me the last straw cud be 3529 for this wave B thing.Above that i wud go with Tony Caldaro's count.
But then even on my alternate count(bullish) its showing a correction is due.

 

[jdm]

Was wondering what would your exploration have shown from Monday 8th May to Wednusday 10th May 2006.

hi sanjay,

its not what the system says or what my exploration had shown things on dates as you mentioned or any other particular date, but its more how one interprets the data on that particular time.

the exploration was meant not to say anything, but to give some data and its on ones part how he/she interprets the same. yes on the 8th of may 2006 the exploration did come up with results where a whole lot were up by 20% and not a single stock has fallen by more than 10%. but then looking at the bullish sentiment at that point of time, isn't that normal.

the rising inflation and with that the fear of rise in interest rates resulted the market to peer 25-30% of its gains in a very volatile manner.

the same fear was back yesterday also, which led to the fall. under the prevailing sentiment it would be very normal if we had a bunch of stocks down by 20% and not a single stock up not more than 10%. but contrary to that, virtually no script was down more than 10%. and that's what not normal. and this behavior alone should let us think twice.

cheers,
jdm.

 

[SGM]

hi sanjay,

its not what the system says or what my exploration had shown things on dates as you mentioned or any other particular date, but its more how one interprets the data on that particular time.

the exploration was meant not to say anything, but to give some data and its on ones part how he/she interprets the same. yes on the 8th of may 2006 the exploration did come up with results where a whole lot were up by 20% and not a single stock has fallen by more than 10%. but then looking at the bullish sentiment at that point of time, isn't that normal.

the rising inflation and with that the fear of rise in interest rates resulted the market to peer 25-30% of its gains in a very volatile manner.

the same fear was back yesterday also, which led to the fall. under the prevailing sentiment it would be very normal if we had a bunch of stocks down by 20% and not a single stock up not more than 10%. but contrary to that, virtually no script was down more than 10%. and that's what not normal. and this behavior alone should let us think twice.

cheers,
jdm.

So, what is the conclusion?

Perhaps, just one more instance of perils of prediction!

cheers and regards
Sanjay

 

[jdm]

nope sanjay, i do not predict the market.

the fall resulted in a sharp fall in volumes. people said unless theres recovery in volume there would not be any recovery in the market. yet we are only 100 odd points short of 12K and thats too without significant recovery in volumes. multiple scripts are making all time high or near their all time highs. then whats the catch?

one has to keep a holistic view about the whole scenario. the markets are just to big to be concluded in few phrases. remember what the wise men said, "markets are never wrong, opinions often are".

cheers,
jdm.

 

[SGM]

nope sanjay, i do not predict the market.

the fall resulted in a sharp fall in volumes. people said unless theres recovery in volume there would not be any recovery in the market. yet we are only 100 odd points short of 12K and thats too without significant recovery in volumes. multiple scripts are making all time high or near their all time highs. then whats the catch?

one has to keep a holistic view about the whole scenario. the markets are just to big to be concluded in few phrases. remember what the wise men said, "markets are never wrong, opinions often are".

cheers,
jdm.

Good question jdm, then whats the catch?

Regards
Sanjay

 

[jdm]

Good question jdm, then whats the catch?

Regards
Sanjay

nope, there was no catch only a googly. he he

the volumes were always there, but unlike before the crash, when every script roared all at one go, thus giving a volume in excess of 10K crores in the cash segment in nse alone, this time each scripts waited for its turn, one by one. in doing so the the market makers were able to put a picture of gloom doom as we often find in typical market with low volumes, but the undercurrent was always there. the data provided by the simple exploration which i ran each day did give me some inputs.

ah its seems you and i has taken over the thread. we should also give amitt also some opportunity to pen down his thoughts. after all its his thread

till then
cheers,
jdm.

 

[amitt29]

Hi,
Here is someone from Moneycontrol website who has compiled a good statistical data on Nifty,which can be used as a confirmatory tool.It is pretty decent work done by someone.I wud suggest goin thru this and keepin a note.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/m...outlooklongterm/21/07/viewfullmessage/1607081

In the past few days it has been suggested that F2 data be looked into for positions and understanding their covert/overt operations.
I am attaching a file which details their Equity buy and sell figures from April to 15 September in totality and then in a breakdown of 15 days interval.It is self explanatory.
I will try and upload corresponding f2 derivatives data.If someone else can do so he/she is most welcome.
Warm Regards.

 

[amitt29]

Hi Friends,
Theres been a few talks doin rounds of bull market ending and not ending.I wud like to clarify here that in terms of Elliott the completion of 1 wave of the largest degree(which in itself shud comprise 5 waves of next smaller degree)thers a wave 2 which when completed brings the next wave 3(up).A bull market never ends in terms of Elliott,Simply its just corrected.

Now here i am posting a count(Elliott Wave) which has held so far very nicely for me.

Warm regards.

 

[amitt29]

Hello Friends,

Sensex and nifty continued their upward journey albeit we have a pullback now.There is some divergence in the benchmark indices because Sensex made new high and Nifty didnt.

IMHO this pullback is insignificant and significant(how can it be both),well let me explain.
This is insignificant because the fall wasnt triggered by panic selling and sufficient enuff to keep new bulls interested.But I add here a bit of caution that 3640 shudnt be broken and there shudnt be close below 3626(consecutively) to dent this uptrend.Otherwise u can keep ur fireworks for next Diwali.It may get painful.

The fall was significant technically because all along(today) u cud see Sensex trailing the Nifty in making new bottoms,so it also signifies that after this pullback ends we shud see both of them moving together,whether they make new high again its a question of 3650 not being broken on consecutive closing basis.

And Heres Wishing You All A Very Happy Diwali.
Regards
Amit.