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[AJAY]

a bit of caution must be exercised here,as risk is unlimited and rewards less.Keeping tight s/l and trailing ones will be most useful.As i have always mantained discipline is more rewarding than technique and flexibility the name of the game.

Hi AmitJr.,

why initiating trades where risk is more than the reward . In such cases according to me being disciplined is being out of markets, instead of keeping tight stops. Hope I'm making sense.

Thanks and happy being away from markets, not happy trading

AJAY

 

[amitt29]

Hi everyone,
An action packed week passed with the expiry.The serious downfall that started post Mumbai blast rally,was answered in equal measure by the serious rally.Giving credence to the basic theory of Newton "to every action there is an equal and opposite reaction".
My caution for traders is just based on the simple fact,that we have seen profit booking/selloff has been seen after every rally.And a market which sees a selloof on every rally doesnt survive long.
On the other hand this short covering rallies can propell market into new highs bringing back hope again and more ppl to propell it even higher thus starting another bull run.
Then again be wary of bull traps.
Its your take now which pill to swallow Neo.
The biggest positive of last rally was the highest weekly closing since 4 weeks.Indicating 2 things either we have reached the intermediate top.Or we are about to begin another run.
Again its your take.
Funny thing is at 3130,3200 looks nearer and it collapses and at 2878,2600 looks nearer and it rises.
Why do i say risk reward is less because unless we take out 3200 convincingly there is more fear than greed.I hope ppl get my point.
And hey if u cant handle the heat,stay out of the kitchen.
Best to everyones weekend.
I am on a small trip out,so will be off for a week or so.

 

[amitt29]

Ahh,
And one more thing before I leave,2nd August cud be an important turning point for this whole rise.
Best to u all.
Regards
Amit.

 

[amitt29]

Hello everyone,
What excellent move has come in the days.Now theres a time to exercise caution.Considering the moves today,seems 3200 will hold in good.
If this move extends 3250-3277-3315 will be the next levels.But caution has to be exercised near these levels.
It will be out of danger for some time to come if it crosses 3315.
Volumes are a concern though.
Warm regards
Amit

 

[amitt29]

Hi All,
Pity it cudnt hold on to 3200.
Now its paramount that 3184-3174-3150-3137 are held in good stead.Below this there is huge gap(not the gap of opening or technicals) at 3085-3050-3022.
Warm regards.

 

[amitt29]

A good counter move today to the bu(r)st on Friday.
The Dow (or the Cow as reffered by some )effect was notwithstanding on our markets.Perhaps as a vindication of my contention that when this intermediate term movement ends we will be independent of the Dow(or the cow).
Amit.

Well its good to be back,and stand vindicated as we have seen in the recent past the Indian markets have moved out of the influence of the Cow Jones and the Asian markets.We have seen so many non positive days for these indices and yet our markets have moved up.Though on very low volumes.
Its pretty interestingly setup for the coming days,
There are two scenarios as envisaged by the Ellioticians worldwide for Indian Markets(i am not going with V.Patil,simply because its not Elliott)Period.
1)We have completed a correction at 2595 on Nifty and we saw a first wave up till 3201 and then 2 nd wave down till 2878.The first wave being a Digonal formation.Or within that we have another alternate count that wave 1 finished at 2960 then wave 2 at 2836 and the 1st wave of 3rd began which completed at 3208 followed by wave 2 of same degree.And this is 3rd wave going on.Thus the bullishness.

2)The 2nd scenario is that we completed wave A of a zigzag at 2595 and this rise is wave B,of which we r currently in wave c(last leg).In terms of fibonacci series this rise is a bit short of the wave a rise from 2595 to 3201.But this supposed wave B has exceeded the fall by 61.8%.

I am attaching the charts for both the counts.

According to me a decisive turning point day cud be 31 aug and 4th September for this rally.
The levels to watch from here wud be 3417-3430-3441.

 

[amitt29]

1 question why is the chat room non functional.

 

[kuldeep49]

Nice to have you back & giving us your views.
Cheers
Kuldeep

 

[amitt29]

Thanks Kuldeep.
Here i am reproducing from a website a set of views.Have a look.
http://groups.google.co.uk/group/aiii/browse_thread/thread/2fd189c457e7d227
Also pls note an interesting thing,the fall from 3774 to 2595 was of 1179,which has divided the whole impulse(rise)from 2003 lows proportionately.The 1st wave is same,2nd wave down is 61.8 of this 1180 and third wave(up from 1292 lows) is twice in price terms this 1180.
It has divided the whole rise into the golden section.
Warm Regards.

 

[SGM]

http://groups.google.co.uk/group/aiii/browse_thread/thread/2fd189c457e7d227

Hello Amit

Whats your view about it? Do you agree about being in wave B?

Regards
Sanjay