1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures - Bac

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5800-6000 Pair trading.
Deleted the Duplicate post

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

5800-6000 Pair trading.

If the market touches 6030 today or tomorrow, the 5800-6000 Pair might once again given an opportunity to Short. So keep a Watch on this pair. The opportunity is there as long as the MAX OI remains at 5800-6000.

Right now it is trading at 86. Yesterday it was trading around 70.

 

[gmt900]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Therein lies the catch.

People approach trading with different mindsets. You are comfortable with High Strike Rate, hence get a Low Risk Reward ratio. Some folks trading NF, are comfy with a high DD (almost 10 back-to-back losses around 4 times a year) and hence get a higher RR.

Whatever route you chose, one fact remains undisputed:

One single trade has the potential to completely WIPE OUT our accounts !!

So, do not be blind-sided by a high strike rate. Do not forget the above fact after 7 good trades.

2 out of 10 such trades WILL fail, regardless of how improbably it appears. If you are getting money off it, then surely you could lose... right? Hence, one must have an exit plan such that after 20 such trades you have reasonable profits. Else, one single bad trade will wipe out profits from 10 good trades... don't trust me... experience it. And till you hv that real-time experience keep your position size to an absolute minimum. Just my humble suggestion. To each his own.

I agree with your comments. I read one article in Words of Wisdom section about a martial arts student "True and inspiring story" wherein the teacher teaches only one trick and asks him to master that, so that he can beat any opponent . I am not exactly aiming for a similar goal, but am planning to learn handling adjustments to short strangle strategy in various situations.
Your point that one bad trade can wipe your entire gain of 10 trades is well taken and therefore, I will keep the position size minimum during the learning phase which I am aware will extend over several months.
If at all stock markets quieten down in future and become less volatile,
this strategy will be very useful. For present times, though, probably this is not one of the better straegies.

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Total CHG in OI is also indicating a SELL. So be cautious on LONGs above 5990.

Total CE @ 7.21L
Total PE @ 6.92L

BEARS have added 9.25L positions (5.6L in 6000CE).
BULLS have added 7.5L

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

As market is approaching 6030, the OI on 60 Ce is increasing. This is an indication of limited upside. If you have a trade setup for taking shorts, then now is a good time.

As for myself, I will wait for a rejection of a previous HOD (6038) to get out of NF longs.

 

[guptak03]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

As market is approaching 6030, the OI on 60 Ce is increasing. This is an indication of limited upside. If you have a trade setup for taking shorts, then now is a good time.

As for myself, I will wait for a rejection of a previous HOD (6038) to get out of NF longs.

Hello jamit ji do you use market profile afl ????

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

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Hello jamit ji do you use market profile afl ????

No sir... I just look at the price's HODs and LODs.

 

[shiv2012]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi,

Can someone throw some light on the relation between 'Change in OI' and " Volume" on the Options chain page. For some options, Change in OI is double that of Volume while for others it is the same or even less. Hows that possible?

 

[healthraj]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

Hi,

Can someone throw some light on the relation between 'Change in OI' and " Volume" on the Options chain page. For some options, Change in OI is double that of Volume while for others it is the same or even less. Hows that possible?

Volume - Number of Contracts executed - It could be bought or Sold.
OI - Pending Contracts.

As for as I know it is very difficult to find any meaningful relationship between OI & Volume because Volume is always Low compared to OI. So do not read too much in the volume.

 

[jamit_05]

Re: 1 lakh to 652 lakhs in 497 trading days - Winning 20% of Trade in NIFTY Futures -

60 Ce ChgOI is 14L
59 Pe ChgOI is 2L

A Big difference.

Breakout failure must be respected today.