BollingerBands

[timepass]

Bollingerbands today, 6th June, 2012.

As mentioned yesterday, narrow bands predict violent movement ahead. So, we had a massive upside today. The bar has not only crossed the 20SMA, but touched the upper BB as well. In the process, both the moving averages have turned green and 7EMA crossed the slower 20SMA.

BB are still narrow (Range : 5010-4810, Width : 200).

1) India vix is significantly down as compared to yesterday but 24.9 is still quite high.
2) LTP is way above ATP showing that many of those who went long at lower levels haven't yet booked out and are hoping for more upside.
3) At the time of this writing, Europe is trading high (1-2%), Crude oil is trending up and the rupee has appreciated against the dollar by about 20 paisa.

All in all, the things look set for further upside, subject to support at 20SMA (currently 4910).

India Vix = 24.9, NF ATP = 4939.79, LTP = 4975.50

 

[trade4joisar]

Bollingerbands today, 6th June, 2012.

2) LTP is way above ATP showing that many of those who went long at lower levels haven't yet booked out and are hoping for more upside.

As per my understanding is when LTP > ATP that means, many people goes shorts & expected to go market down but did not & they hold it for next day.

This is similar to VWAP by ST.

 

[timepass]

As per my understanding is when LTP > ATP that means, many people goes shorts & expected to go market down but did not & they hold it for next day.

This is similar to VWAP by ST.

Let's assume that ATP = VWAP because my software does not show VWAP. ST's famous "Squeezing The Last Drop" post is No. 485 in "Thoughts on Day/Swing Trading" thread (and some discussion in later posts). How this affects the next day's trades is a muddle to me too.

I'll tell you my reason for my statement.

As the chart below shows, there were 3 spurts of heavy volumes - 1) one near the opening (below 4900), 2) one around 10.20-10.30 around 4930-4935 levels and 3) one near the closing around 4980 level. The volumes were thin for rest of the time.

The way I see it, 1) the volumes near 4890 levels were in anticipation of 4900 being crossed, 2) then at 4930 level a lot of stoplosses of the bears were triggered which resulted heavy volumes, also some profit booking by those who thought that 4950 spot may not hold (remember, nifty spot spent a lot of time between 4940-4950) and 3) near end of the day, intraday profit booking caused heavy volumes.

So, most of the trades happened below 4940 NF and they haven't booked the profits as yet. Perhaps they don't expect any serious gap down tomorrow morning.

 

[trade4joisar]

Let's assume that ATP = VWAP because my software does not show VWAP. ST's famous "Squeezing The Last Drop" post is No. 485 in "Thoughts on Day/Swing Trading" thread (and some discussion in later posts). How this affects the next day's trades is a muddle to me too.

I'll tell you my reason for my statement.

As the chart below shows, there were 3 spurts of heavy volumes - 1) one near the opening (below 4900), 2) one around 10.20-10.30 around 4930-4935 levels and 3) one near the closing around 4980 level. The volumes were thin for rest of the time.

The way I see it, 1) the volumes near 4890 levels were in anticipation of 4900 being crossed, 2) then at 4930 level a lot of stoplosses of the bears were triggered which resulted heavy volumes, also some profit booking by those who thought that 4950 spot may not hold (remember, nifty spot spent a lot of time between 4940-4950) and 3) near end of the day, intraday profit booking caused heavy volumes.

So, most of the trades happened below 4940 NF and they haven't booked the profits as yet. Perhaps they don't expect any serious gap down tomorrow morning.

AS VWAP does not worked yesterday, so i dont think there is any effect of that today. But i never know, let see.

BTW, SGXnifty open 45 points up.

 

[timepass]

AS VWAP does not worked yesterday, so i dont think there is any effect of that today. But i never know, let see.

BTW, SGXnifty open 45 points up.

Yes, the longs are not yet selling, and there are new buyers, so the price is up. I think the longs will keep their SL at the previous resistance - 4930 region.

 

[timepass]

Bollingerbands for Thursday, June 7, 2012.

A day of consolidation, I suppose. Still, it ended with nifty 52 points up and made a sort of "Can't keep me down" pinbar and not only pierced the upper BB, but opened and closed above it. NF spent the first half trading below its ATP and the latter half above its ATP, erasing premium from the puts . So maybe some longs booked out at the opening, and maybe more longs came in after the Europe opened.

The bands are widening (Range : 5029-4800, Width : 229).

1) India vix is down, today's ATP is above yesterday's ATP and the LTP is above the ATP. All these appear to be positive signs.
2) At the time of this writing, Europe is trading in the green (about 0.5%) after having opened in the green. DOW futures are marginally positive.
3) USD is trading around Rs. 55. It dipped below the 55 mark intraday and is presently above it. Let's see how it ends. The dollar index is at 82.16
4) Tomorrow is Fryday.

India Vix = 23.74, NF ATP = 5012.60, LTP = 5033.75

 

[sid2012]

Hi timepass

You have emphasised on tomorrow being a friday.
Is there any significance of tomorrow being a friday in the current setup?
Thanks

 

[timepass]

Hi timepass

You have emphasised on tomorrow being a friday.
Is there any significance of tomorrow being a friday in the current setup?
Thanks

All the 4 sessions of this week have been upside. Maybe some traders will want to take the profits home for the weekend. Europe situation can change dramatically over the weekend, so we may see some profit booking.

 

[columbus]

Have a look at the COINCIDENCE ,if EMA closes above SMA for 3 or 4 days,
we will be in BULL market.

 

[timepass]

Bollingerbands for a mad reversal day, Friday, June 8, 2012.

Global cues and a weak rupee pulled the index down, but it found support at 7EMA, reminiscent of the uptrend of Dec-Jan. Both the moving averages are green now and in "open mouth" position. The price has struck outside the upper band for a second day in a row, and ended at the day's high. The candlestick pattern would be a Hammer (I guess). India vix is marginally down, today's ATP is marginally above yesterday's and the LTP is up in the sky. We could be looking at 5100 soon. But :

1) The rupee has depreciated against the dollar by about 50 paisa (but off the day's lows). The dollar index is at 82.75 - up by about 0.50 and much above the comfort level.
2) Global markets, Europe and DOW futures, are still red.
3) There's a huge gap between LTP and ATP, indicating that fresh longs may have been built up in the later part of the session. I still don't know what prompted the late rally, but will check the news soon.

The bands are widening (Range : 5049-4772, Width : 277).

All in all, Fryday really seems to have fried both the bulls and bears by hitting stoplosses on both the sides. The chart says that uptrend is intact.

India Vix = 23.47, NF ATP = 5013.65, LTP = 5076.25

I will post the weeklies later.