BollingerBands

[timepass]

Good afternoon, folks, here are the Bollingerbands for Tuesday, 29th May, 2012. What do they tell us for tomorrow ?? The chart is looking positive, but the sentiment is negative.

Today's bar is completely above 20SMA and green in color. 7EMA is now green for the fourth day and upturned, 20SMA is still red. Maybe we will see a retracement to 20SMA (4954), maybe not. The range of BB is 5129-4779,width = 350. That's pretty narrow. Nifty futures have closed below today's ATP, and today's ATP is almost equal to yesterday's LTP, not surprising actually, considering that the closing was almost flat. Also, at the time of this writing, Europe is trading mixed with slightly positive bias, the INR has weakened against the dollar by about 60 paisa and heading towards the 56 mark and India vix is slightly higher compared to yesterday.

India Vix = 24.03, NF ATP = 4987.5, LTP = 4976.05

 

[columbus]

Looks like the DOWNWARD movement has come to end.Generally a V shape
indicates ending of a trend.If the candles are above 7ema-20sma crossover,
then it signifies a UP movement.Previously it was choppy in one case but
it played very well in JAN and FEB.Let us see what will happen in JUNE series.

 

[timepass]

Looks like the DOWNWARD movement has come to end.Generally a V shape
indicates ending of a trend.If the candles are above 7ema-20sma,
then it signifies a UP movement.Previously it was choppy in one case but
it played very well in JAN and FEB.Let us see what will happen in JUNE series.

Yes, there was the reversal pattern on the weekly too.

OTOH, it could be the UPmove coming to an end. Today's bar has the makings of a market structure high. 7EMA hasn't yet crossed the 20. I would believe the end of downmove when 7EMA closes above 20SMA for 3 consecutive sessions, which hasn't happened for 3 months now. Also, after January, the candles haven't touched the upper BB even when they crossed 20SMA. This is a typical sign of bear market. I don't think there's much upside left in the index.

 

[columbus]

We had alternate choppy and strong movements as indicated in the above
figure.Bollinger UPPER band is falling rapidly and if V-shape is repeated
here also (Both upper & lower Bollinger bands) we can expect a strong move.
But pattern says a choppy after STRONG.Better to go for Mutual Fund's
disclaimer.Past performance is not indication of future.

 

[timepass]

and those "choppy" periods have 300-400 pts range

 

[timepass]

Wednesday, 29th May, 2012 : Another day, another BB. The problem is that the situation looks similar to April 3, 2012. The bar is fully above 20SMA, so maybe today was just a retracement after about 5 sessions of upmove. The bands continue to narrow (Range : 5081-4804, Width : 277). The expiry day tomorrow should be interesting for those who still have some balance left in their accounts

Vix is up significantly, today's ATP is less than yesterday's and LTP is less than ATP - all negative symptoms, but the gap between the LTP and ATP isn't much. Also, the bar is completely above 20SMA, and 7EMA is still green (by just about 1 point or so). At the time of this writing, Europe is down by about 1% and INR has closed significantly WEAK against the dollar (56.23 - i.e. +56 paisa) !!

India Vix = 25.30, NF ATP = 4943.03, LTP = 4929.05

 

[timepass]

Now, what are the Bollingerbands showing for today, 31st May, 2012 ??

7EMA is above 20SMA (above just by a hair), but both the EMAs are red. So maybe the last 2 days' downmove has nullified the upside of the earlier 5 sessions, and rendered the index in neutral territory. But the bar has ended below both the SMAs and the crossed them only due to some last minute spike. The vix is marginally down. The bands are narrowing (Range : 5056-4812, width : 244).

At the time of this writing, INR/USD is flat after touching all time lows, and retracing therefrom; the dollar index is 82.9 and rising; Europe is trading with a positive bias (0%-1%) but is presently off its day's highs. DOW futures are in the green marginally.

India Vix = 25.25, NF ATP = 4903.74, LTP = 4924.10

 

[timepass]

Bollingerbands for today, 1st June, 2012.

I will add the comments later.

India Vix = 26.77, NF ATP = 4859.44, LTP = 4817.85

Weekly :

 

[timepass]

Now, what are the Bollingerbands showing for today, 4th June, 2012 ??

Today's bar is wayyyyyyyyy below the 2 MAs, both the MAs are red and trending down. But it is a green bar today, ending nearly at the high of the day. So, today forms a sort of triple bottom that we have seen earlier twice in recent past (yellow arrows) where the third leg forms the lowest point, and leads to a bounceback. The possibility of a bounceback is reinforced by 1) reducing vix, 2) huge gap between ATP and LTP. But today's ATP is lower than previous session's.

The bands are narrowing (Range : 5006-4818, width : 190).

At the time of this writing, INR/USD is marginally up from yesterday,Europe is trading mixed and DOW futures are flat.

India Vix = 25.60, NF ATP = 4798.6, LTP = 4850.15

 

[timepass]

Here are the Bollingerbands showing for today, 5th June, 2012 ??

Today's bar crossed 7EMA and the index has ended up by about 15 points. But :

1) Both the moving averages are still red and trending down
2) Volatility has increased significantly
3) Today's ATP is significantly above yesterday's but the index traded below its ATP in the second half, indicating that a lot of profit booking has taken place at higher levels and that some longs may be trapped at higher levels.
4) Today's bar looks like a "can't keep it up" kind of pinbar .

The bands have narrowed further (Range : 5005-4813, Width = 192).

At the time of this writing, Europe is trading mixed and DOW futures are flat.

Rupee has ended flat against the dollar.

So, it is difficult to predict what tomorrow will bring because despite the negativities, we had a positive day. The narrow bands preclude violent activity in the coming sessions.

India Vix = 26.26, NF ATP = 4852.8, LTP = 4844