BollingerBands

[sid2012]

Bollingerbands for a mad reversal day, Friday, June 8, 2012.

Global cues and a weak rupee pulled the index down, but it found support at 7EMA, reminiscent of the uptrend of Dec-Jan. Both the moving averages are green now and in "open mouth" position. The price has struck outside the upper band for a second day in a row, and ended at the day's high. The candlestick pattern would be a Hammer (I guess). India vix is marginally down, today's ATP is marginally above yesterday's and the LTP is up in the sky. We could be looking at 5100 soon. But :

1) The rupee has depreciated against the dollar by about 50 paisa (but off the day's lows). The dollar index is at 82.75 - up by about 0.50 and much above the comfort level.
2) Global markets, Europe and DOW futures, are still red.
3) There's a huge gap between LTP and ATP, indicating that fresh longs may have been built up in the later part of the session. I still don't know what prompted the late rally, but will check the news soon.

The bands are widening (Range : 5049-4772, Width : 277).

All in all, Fryday really seems to have fried both the bulls and bears by hitting stoplosses on both the sides. The chart says that uptrend is intact.

India Vix = 23.47, NF ATP = 5013.65, LTP = 5076.25

I will post the weeklies later.

Timepass
Kindly inform about the reason for the late rally coz I am 1 of those traders who suffered stoplosses on both sides & lost heavily assuming the second half to be bearish
Thanks

 

[timepass]

Timepass
Kindly inform about the reason for the late rally coz I am 1 of those traders who suffered stoplosses on both sides & lost heavily assuming the second half to be bearish
Thanks

It was perhaps this piece of news :

India's April industrial output seen up 1.7 per cent yoy: Poll

But really, it is the sentiment which drives the market. Even I am scratching my head at the causes of the late rally. You see, yesterday the FIIs were net sellers in equity markets. The global cues were negative. But there are times when the market disregards any bad news and moves up; sometimes it digests good news and yet moves down.

If you are following any day trading strategies, you will know where to keep your stoplosses.

Anyway, the sentiment seems to have turned bullish, let's see what the coming days bring.

 

[sid2012]

Thanks for your effort TP.:thumb:
I did expect a red candle in the later part of this week. I still do still expect an average to big red candle in the first half of the coming week.
Thanks

 

[timepass]

The sentiment is indeed bullish,that confirmation comes from the world indexs,may be apart from dax all other indices have turned positive.
But here in nifty one has to be a bit careful now.The 5070 level is crucial,because it is where the price meets the downward sloping trendline.I think there will be a minor selling at that zone,after which it should head northwards.But it would be interesting to watch how the price reacts to tht trendline.

Yes, we seem to be in a resistance region, as also mentioned in my post in the Ichimoku thread. But, unless the global sentiments are negative on Monday morning, we may take out the resistances with a gap up. That's what happened in Dec-Jan - Nifty went through the defined resistances like a hot knife through butter, not giving a chance to the bears to clear their position or the latecomers to join the party

 

[timepass]

Thanks for your effort TP.:thumb:
I did expect a red candle in the later part of this week. I still do still expect an average to big red candle in the first half of the coming week.
Thanks

I don't know about the first half of the week, but I expect jitters in the second half the world over - Greece elections on 17th (next Sunday).

 

[timepass]

Bollingerbands for 11-06-2012.

Was a day of reversal or profit booking ?? The bar again pierced the upper BB, but closed a tad below it, nearly at the low of the day. But both the MAs are still green and pointing upwards, so the "open mouth" position of the MAs continues. The bands are widening (Range : 5073-4784, Width : 289). There are quite a few negative cues though.

1) India vix is up at 25.02,
2) NF is again trading at a discount, having risen to a premium intraday. The LTP is far below the ATP showing that quite a few longs are still trapped at the higher levels.
3) Indian rupee has weakened by 32 paisa against the dollar, and the dollar index is up at 82.24

The global cues are positive so far. Europe is trading in the green (but off its highs) and the DOW futures are green.

7EMA at 4997 and 20SMA at 4928 may offer support to the index, because a retracement after 5 sessions' upmove can't be ruled out. The index is still above both the moving averages so let's hope that tomorrow's session is bullish because at EOD I am holding CEs

India Vix = 25.02, NF ATP = 5040.00, LTP = 5093.48

 

[sid2012]

Thanks TP
An average to big candle was expected. Tomorrow should be bullish:thumb:

 

[columbus]

Bollingerbands for 11-06-2012.

Was a day of reversal or profit booking ?? The bar again pierced the upper BB, but closed a tad below it, nearly at the low of the day. But both the MAs are still green and pointing upwards, so the "open mouth" position of the MAs continues. The bands are widening (Range : 5073-4784, Width : 289). There are quite a few negative cues though.

1) India vix is up at 25.02,
2) NF is again trading at a discount, having risen to a premium intraday. The LTP is far below the ATP showing that quite a few longs are still trapped at the higher levels.
3) Indian rupee has weakened by 32 paisa against the dollar, and the dollar index is up at 82.24

The global cues are positive so far. Europe is trading in the green (but off its highs) and the DOW futures are green.

7EMA at 4997 and 20SMA at 4928 may offer support to the index, because a retracement after 5 sessions' upmove can't be ruled out. The index is still above both the moving averages so let's hope that tomorrow's session is bullish because at EOD I am holding CEs

This is quite reminiscent of JAN'12 situation.

 

[timepass]

Thanks TP
An average to big candle was expected. Tomorrow should be bullish:thumb:

Tomorrow the RBI will buy Rs. 12000 crores worth of treasury bonds. This looks like a stimulus package. Let's see how far it stimulates the index . Actually I am holding 5200CE + 4800PE

This is quite reminiscent of JAN'12 situation.

I think this is more like 2nd May situation, where the candle opened gap up, moved up and then crashed to about half way below the previous candle. It continued to gap down till it hit the lower BB. The line it originally traversed was the 20SMA. That time a bearish crossover of the averages was already in place.

During the January upmove also there was a somewhat similar move on 18th Jan, but then the current session's candle did not rise above the previous one.

 

[columbus]

Bollingerbands for 11-06-2012.

But both the MAs are still green and pointing upwards, so the "open mouth" position of the MAs continues. The bands are widening (Range : 5073-4784, Width : 289).

The OPEN MOUTH status of EMA-7 & SMA-20 pointing upwards made this
statement.

"This is quite reminiscent of JAN'12 situation."