NIFTY on a down tick today.
Daily chart of NIFTY turns down from the overvalued zone. MACD Histogram gives a down tick. Value zone moves up to 5200-5147, though there is a good amount of space in between the close and the value zone, it is likely to submerge it between. That is where the swing trades on daily chart get signaled. 5220 holds a good support zone for the daily while on the bullish side above 5365 the next resistance is far away at 5450? 5450 has become a magic number for this months expiry as many option positions are awaiting NIFTY there. With expiry just 2 days to go and markets giving in to selling pressure, now where will NIFTY be on expiry is a quizzing question among traders. The probabilities are not above 5450 or below 5150 it is going to stay right in between.
Hourly charts have closed right into the value zone which is at 5307-5330 on the closing bar. One interesting point to note here is that the fast average has turned down, now with only the slow average left in the bullish direction the probable move for the markets now is either staying sideways or going bearish. As the market is trending, a close below 5307 will turn the market into bearish trend. As the strong support on the daily chart is at 5220, there are a fairly good number of points which can be gathered on the down side too.
In the days session we had a swing long position, which failed losing 3.50 points and our trending long position has locked above 270 points in profit. Now that the slow average and closing price of the day have come closer, any adverse reaction in the Global markets will impact our markets in the opening & may take off some of the gains in the Trend long position. Whatever may happen, we wait for the first hour completion for next signals. If NIFTY turns bearish both Trend and Swing systems will get entry at these levels, if the market drifts into sideways range, then new patterns and reading are required to decide on the next trade.
Happy trading fellas, we are about to close one of the great trending trades in the next session with real great gains. Cheers to everyone following these calls.