BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

Exit swing long below 5335 on NIFTY future and book minimum profits. Exit swing long below 5335.00 on NIFTY future to close the position at break even, there is a down tick on the hourly charts. Think the drama has began, let’s watch it playing out. Trend traders hold on too long position till reversal or exit is posted, move to rollover on the last 30 minutes.
Market is trending, so there is possibility of trades here, keep glued in.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Market is getting whipped badly. A close below 5317 in the current will render the market bearsh. Trend traders close long positons on trigger and take new short positions on the July contract.

Our trend trade which is open will have a minor loss. Now that the market is turning down when in trend, it is likely to have some good moves on the bear side too.

Entry and stop levels will be pasted as early as possibile. Since markets get triggered by the time our posts reach the site, we have to go through with a small slippage in order to trade the hourly charts.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Short below 5291.00 of curret Nifty futures value on the July contract. Trend positions reverse to short below 5291.00 on current month NIFTY. Take positions on July contract.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Traders please maintain stop losses, market is playing it out. Entry stop for both swing and trend trades is at 5334 on current month Nifty futures.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Dice roll continues..

NIFTY took to some level of volatility on the expiry day towards the closing hours after staying totally flat for the first half. As the averages move up along with the MACD line, price is just flat. Value zone on the daily chart has moved up to 5235-5173, still having more than a percent gap between the price and value zone. MACD histogram is drifting low on a slow pace, this is bad. If it continues with the same move for a few more sessions price will just keep moving parallel to the averages while getting divergence on every high. 5350 has become a strong resistance on the charts, while at the bottom we have 5220 which is far away and quite possible to touch if NIFTY turns down from here.

On the hourly charts, after a tight range for 4 hours NIFTY broke down to give a sell signal on both swing and trend systems. At the low of the day MACD histogram retraced bullish divergence to price and had a strong pull back to close positive again. At the closing bar NIFTY goes off trend, so here on breach of last bar high, trend trade gets reversed while swing system covers short & stays away.

Our open long trade on both systems got sold off with a break even on swing system and a loss of 40 point loss on the trend position. This month has been of a tight going, while trend system is in break even, swing system has been continually hitting streak of whipsaw trades. While in the month of May, it was opposite with a big gain too. This is the process of trend following, when the markets are non-trending on the higher timeframes, whipsaw trades are more.

Trades done with prefect money management and position sizing will give good returns in the long run.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

US markets closing weak and Asia opening weak too has some bearing on our markets. The weak sentiments we had at the time of closing is likely to continue. On the index turning weak, it is has to move past nearest 5290 support with force to have any big impact on the down side, else there will be another bullish divergence on the MACD histogram, which would add strength to the next bullish move on the Index.

At yesterdays closing we have 21 stocks trading long, 9 stocks trading short and 20 stocks in the sideways move from the NIFTY component list on the hourly charts. While the same on the daily charts is 20 stocks trading long, 6 stocks trading short and 24 stocks on the sideways.

At both levels we have more number of stocks which are not in trade. This has a big impact on the index movements and is the reason, that we are not having any good moves for the past 2 days.

Expect market to open weak and then work its way out later from the incoming news and inflows. Short positions which are open on both swing and trend systems are presumed to be safe at the opening, next signals will be derived from the market movements.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY takes out support

In line with the global cues our market followed rightly with a bearish opening. NIFTY has made a decisive move past its nearest 5290 support, now needs more strength to form a new valley on the MACD histogram to continue the bearishness. Holding here will give strength to the next bullish move and that is what is required for the daily charts.

While our short position is doing well with small gains, lets be prepared for trades on both directions. Value zone on the hourly at 10.00 am is at 5320-5317. The narrow gap that the value zone is in is the reason for NIFTY going into non-trend. This happens when there is a change of direction. If the opposite direction does not go strong, market will fall flat, at present it is a transition.

Hold on to both swing and trend positions with stops intact. Await next signals for exit on swing position and reversal for trend positions.
Thank you.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY continues with down tick but has no gains made on the short side. Value zone moves to 5315.50-5314.9, next hour will have the averages crossing over or if there is a reversal, it will start moving up. Tight averages do not permit big moves, which is visible in today’s NIFTY movement. MACD histogram on the hourly is witnessing a clear bullish divergence to price.

Hold on to short positions.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Swing trade may get covered after the current hour close, if it is going to give an up tick. Keep alert to place an exit order, as markets in the sideways is likely to move faster at crucial points.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Cover swing short position on the Hourly NIFTY above 5313.75 on futures. Again a losing trade in the swing system.