BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls
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Swing short position on NIFTY got covered at a 22 points loss while the Trend position gets revered to long with a 33 points loss plus commissions. We have not reversed swing position because the NIFTY chart is not trending. While on the trend system the ratings have turned strongly bullish, a straight change from bearishness that prevailed on the opening hours.
Tight range and Whipsaw on NIFTY
Daily chart of NIFTY is on a slow paced down trend giving lower lows on every bar. Value zone moves up to 5242-5181, which has reduced its speed of movement. MACD turns down after a strong upward journey for the past 11 trading sessions. MACD lines go along with the price on the down side. Market being in trend, a price move into the value zone and pull back will give us opportunity to trades long on the daily chart. While 5375 holds good resistance on the upside, 5250 is a strong support on the bottom. A move towards the support zone will intersect the value zone in the next session.
But there is a different picture of the stocks that constitute the NIFTY Index. On the daily charts 28 stocks are trading on the long side, 8 stocks are trading on the short side and 14 stocks are in the sideways range. While more than 50% stocks of the NIFTY component list are on the bullish side, the likeliness of NIFTY moving down is hard to see, though it may move down there will be jerks on the way.
We are already witnessing the jerks on the hourly charts with a streak of whipsaw trades. With every down close on the hourly chart its MACD histogram is gaining strength on its bullish divergence. MACD histogram has a broad bottom formation which indicates that the market is likely to see further lows. This coincides with the daily move to its value zone. Hourly chart is out of trend.
The stocks direction on the hourly charts are 18 stocks trading short, 18 stocks on the sideways while 14 stocks are trading long. Now this is opposite to the daily position. On the daily bulls are pulling the Index upward, while on the hourly bears are holding it strong. Though not to the extent of bullish power as the number of stocks on the bear grip or lesser compared to bullish ones on the daily, the impact is likely. That is the reason we are witnessing see saw ride on the index. Some one needs to be overpowered for the index to take direction.
It is going to be the bulls that win, but before they stage their victory, there is more blood shed on the road. Swing traders are on the sidelines while trend system is churning out one after other signals and all are getting hit. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. Trend system made a neat 270 points gain when swing did not get any opportunity. Whereas in the month of May last, Swing rode to victory with a 468 points gain on the whole month.
It will not be a one way route for any system or market; it is how we manage our losing trades that will speak in the long run. If we are able to have lesser point loss and proportionately higher gains, the equation will always be on the winning side.
Daily chart of NIFTY is on a slow paced down trend giving lower lows on every bar. Value zone moves up to 5242-5181, which has reduced its speed of movement. MACD turns down after a strong upward journey for the past 11 trading sessions. MACD lines go along with the price on the down side. Market being in trend, a price move into the value zone and pull back will give us opportunity to trades long on the daily chart. While 5375 holds good resistance on the upside, 5250 is a strong support on the bottom. A move towards the support zone will intersect the value zone in the next session.
But there is a different picture of the stocks that constitute the NIFTY Index. On the daily charts 28 stocks are trading on the long side, 8 stocks are trading on the short side and 14 stocks are in the sideways range. While more than 50% stocks of the NIFTY component list are on the bullish side, the likeliness of NIFTY moving down is hard to see, though it may move down there will be jerks on the way.
We are already witnessing the jerks on the hourly charts with a streak of whipsaw trades. With every down close on the hourly chart its MACD histogram is gaining strength on its bullish divergence. MACD histogram has a broad bottom formation which indicates that the market is likely to see further lows. This coincides with the daily move to its value zone. Hourly chart is out of trend.
The stocks direction on the hourly charts are 18 stocks trading short, 18 stocks on the sideways while 14 stocks are trading long. Now this is opposite to the daily position. On the daily bulls are pulling the Index upward, while on the hourly bears are holding it strong. Though not to the extent of bullish power as the number of stocks on the bear grip or lesser compared to bullish ones on the daily, the impact is likely. That is the reason we are witnessing see saw ride on the index. Some one needs to be overpowered for the index to take direction.
It is going to be the bulls that win, but before they stage their victory, there is more blood shed on the road. Swing traders are on the sidelines while trend system is churning out one after other signals and all are getting hit. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. Trend system made a neat 270 points gain when swing did not get any opportunity. Whereas in the month of May last, Swing rode to victory with a 468 points gain on the whole month.
It will not be a one way route for any system or market; it is how we manage our losing trades that will speak in the long run. If we are able to have lesser point loss and proportionately higher gains, the equation will always be on the winning side.
We had stated that NIFTY has a potential to go lower before a long trade comes in. Today on open we have the NIFTY closing above the slow average, but our ratings show that the market is bearish. This happens when markets are in indecisive mood. Now we have a bullish closing with a bearish rating and the prevailing trend is neutral. One-to-one are contradictory, global markets too show the same picture.
'Wait on sidelines is also an option for the trader, even that earns money'. We had our mentor say this several times. True, it is rewarding, we get saved from losing trades. There are no swing trades now as the NIFTY chart is into non-trend on the hourly. Trend trades too are showing contradictory signals, so we wait.
There may be confusion ruling in the minds of traders who are following this thread. ‘When we say NIFTY is in non-trend and we still keep giving trend trade signals.’ A clarification on this point, we have a rating system which rates the strength of the NIFTY index and along with that while NIFTY chart too coincides, we give our calls on the trend system. While Swing trades are based only on the NIFTY Chart.
There is bound to be many whipsaw trades on the trend system as we almost all the time are in the market. But, that has its own advantages too. Like we have had in the previous winning trade with a 270 points gain. Every system has its own pros and cons, when we get accustomed to one system and follow it with discipline, we are bound to gain in the long run. As we state time and again in this thread that we do not promise a 90% winning system or a triple digit profit percentage. This is a system with an above average returns, but traded with consistency over a period of few years, has a multifold effect on the capital through the power of compounding.
'Wait on sidelines is also an option for the trader, even that earns money'. We had our mentor say this several times. True, it is rewarding, we get saved from losing trades. There are no swing trades now as the NIFTY chart is into non-trend on the hourly. Trend trades too are showing contradictory signals, so we wait.
There may be confusion ruling in the minds of traders who are following this thread. ‘When we say NIFTY is in non-trend and we still keep giving trend trade signals.’ A clarification on this point, we have a rating system which rates the strength of the NIFTY index and along with that while NIFTY chart too coincides, we give our calls on the trend system. While Swing trades are based only on the NIFTY Chart.
There is bound to be many whipsaw trades on the trend system as we almost all the time are in the market. But, that has its own advantages too. Like we have had in the previous winning trade with a 270 points gain. Every system has its own pros and cons, when we get accustomed to one system and follow it with discipline, we are bound to gain in the long run. As we state time and again in this thread that we do not promise a 90% winning system or a triple digit profit percentage. This is a system with an above average returns, but traded with consistency over a period of few years, has a multifold effect on the capital through the power of compounding.
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NIFTY has given a down close with rating in the bearish side. We have a sell call below 5303.50 on NIFTY futures with a stop of 5350. A tight range market should break on the either side, it cannot prolong. We may have a signal on the side of a false break, but that will give more strength to the trade in the next direction.
Maintaining strict stop loss and money management will keep us in the market for a big howl.
Maintaining strict stop loss and money management will keep us in the market for a big howl.
Short trade gets filled in a smooth way on the NIFTY futures. Price holds to sideways range moves while ratings show that at 12.00 noon NIFTY has 56% of the component list in Trend and bearish stocks outnumbering bullish ones. Price has closed below the averages and hence, we carry the position for the next hour.
Stops or reversal signals are expected on completion of the next incoming hours. We advice caution in the present market, both on operation and stop loss management. As we complete this post, we find that the market has moved past its almost flat average.
Stops or reversal signals are expected on completion of the next incoming hours. We advice caution in the present market, both on operation and stop loss management. As we complete this post, we find that the market has moved past its almost flat average.
As NIFTY is scratching the floor for support to stand and then take on its heels towards the next resistance, it is unable to close above average. Hence the short trade continues with the same stop. The current hour saw NIFTY making a vain effort to get up, but was unable to do so. While on the bear side too there has not been any visible gain. NIFTY is putting a relentless effort from giving in to bear power. Will it succeed?
The underlying strength is bullish on the Daily, but when they will put their strengths together is of high anticipation now. Until then we hold our challenging short with strict vigil on the screen for any break through.
The underlying strength is bullish on the Daily, but when they will put their strengths together is of high anticipation now. Until then we hold our challenging short with strict vigil on the screen for any break through.
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