BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

Every sector in the market have closed negative today, the leader on the march being BASIC MATERIALS with a 1.29% loss in its index value. Metals Industry groups were worst performers today with Aluminium giving back 4% and Steel giving back 3.00% of their Index value. BASIC MATERIALS Sector is in a pretty strong bear grip on both weekly and daily charts. HINDALCO which is the mirror of the Aluminium Industry has tanked above 4%. HINDALCO is in short trade on both daily and weekly for a fairly long time now.

Almost similar patterns get mirrored on the Steel Industry too, while the bear trend is stronger than the Aluminium Industry. SAIL & TATASTEEL are the leaders in this industry and they have been in short from 235.00 and 649.50 respectively giving a good amount of open profit for the traders on this counter. Short trades are still open and generating profits.

The sector which lost lesser today was the TECHNOLOGY sector with just above 0.50% loss on its index. Large Software Industry and Hardware Industry groups managed to show strength with minor weakness. Considerable gains made by CMC and MOSERBAER have helped the Hardware Industry to stay afloat.

The highest losing Industry groups today are Housing & Reality Industry with a 4.23% loss followed by Aluminium at 4.0% and Abrasives and castings Industry at a 3.13% loss. HDIL and DLF among themselves lost most than 2%, while BHARATFORGE and CARBORUNDUM gave back above 4% of their values today.

BHARATFORGE is a buy candidate on the daily above 292.90 with a stop below 278.00. With todays range being fairly large, there is a likely chance for a lower entry triggers from the next sessions.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

After we took over China and became the world leader in the Global financial markets, the strength keeps adding and seems to go one for long. While most of the global markets gave in to bear pressure, India is showing resilience to the prevailing bear onslaught.

While most of the markets have corrected badly we are showing strength, though we broke the 5250 support again at the opening bell, market is unrelenting to close below 5250. Value zone moves to 5294-5282, thus covering our risk in the open short trade to the full extent. Swing trade opportunities are present at the moment if NIFTY reaches between value zone and pulls down.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Down trend continues with tight moves while still holding 5250. Our value zone moves to 5291-5278. No opportunity for swing trades at present as the price should move into the value zone before a trigger for swing trade is allowed.

While the MACD lines go deep down below zero, MACD histogram shows flat kind of a pattern. This shows that the market is not in sync with the other indicators and to confirm that we are having a tough fight going on between the bulls and bears here today.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Value zone reached, swing short entry below 5249 with stop at 5300.

The entry trigger is far lower than the value zone and with market gaining strength we are likely to have a higher entry trigger probablu inthenext hour. 5290 would prove a strong resistance, but breaching it with any power will change the trend on the hourly.

Daily charts being in bullish trend and awaiting loer entry trigger coincides with todays moves here in the hourly charts. Lets trade as per our rules.

Value zone became flat without any movement at 5290. A close above 5290 should be used to cover short & go long.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Contradictory signals on the NIFTY in the hourly charts. Swings shorts off, markets at crucial levels. Averages are shaky at the moment. Trend short position will reverse on a close above 5290.

If the markets don't resume bearishness, the running short position may be a break even trade. Traders please hold caution.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Stiffness continues, value zone flat with bearish trend. Add-on, Swing shorts open below 5277 with a stop of 5325. Entry stops are hard stops for risk calculation and protection from adverse moves. A close above value zone will negate the prevailing trade and needs exit above high of the bar closing above value zone.

Hence, the loss will be less than the risk while the trade gets filled.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Markets challenging, whipsaw trades continue. Both Trend and add-on swing positions on the short side masacred. NIFTY trend changes to bullish, reverse to long trade above 5314.50 on futures. Stop loss 5264.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY on a strong pullback.

Strong global weakness did not give any reason for the NIFTY to look back from its bull run. Though opened lower with a lower low against the previous day, NIFTY managed to give a strong pullback and even managed to take of highs.

Most of the front line stocks managed to give a strong recovery from previous days weakness. BPCL was the star of the day with a 4.33% gain on its price followed closely by IDFC with a close to 4% gains. Barring 7 stocks or 14% of the index stocks which closed negative, all the other stocks of the component list have closed positive. The interesting part of todays rally was the above 1% gains registered by 24 stocks in the index list which is a whopping 48%. These gains neatly coincide with the just above 1% gain on the Index too.

The value zone on the daily chart continues its bullish journey resting at 5266-5207. But, an issue of concern here is the recovery, these types of one day reversals add more strength to range bound movements. Now the question looms largely as to whether the bullishness will continue with the same vigor or would fall short & calm down into a neutral trend.

MACD line and histogram show high strength, histogram maintaining above zero is a strong sign to the prevailing bullishness. While this is the scenario on the daily, the hourly charts have got struck into a rampant onslaught of the neutral trend.

We have so far had 5 whipsaw trades and most of it getting reversed at the range highs. Overnight short trade got covered with a loss of 12 points and reversed into a long trade. The open long trade has closed positive. As we write we find Europe succumbing to bear pressure, though opened strong, which gave the most required fillip to turn our index hugely positive towards close.

The tight flow of prices has made the NIFTY chart go into a non-trend. But, the rising averages even have the potential to gain into a new bullish trend provided the price gains further. Next clues are awaited from the US market closing. Though we found today that the underlying global cues do not affect our markets, still the opening is decided by the global peers.

The value zone on the hourly chart is at 5293-5289, close to the closing price. As the present markets go into non-trend often with more number of whipsaw trades and only few good trends. We need to capture the most from the trends and keep our position lesser in the non-trending zone. Based on this we urge traders who follow our trading calls on the NIFTY to load their positions by trading multiple lots. The entries will be in stages, we trade one lot on the first trigger and then as the market keeps moving in the side of the trade keep adding more up to 4 lots maximum.

Traders with low capital base cannot trade this method as we need a minimum of 2.50 lakhs to trade one unit (4 lots) on NIFTY. Traders wanting to trade on the Mini NIFTY can do so if their trading capital is 1 lakh. Based on this the staged entries for the present long trade is to add 2nd lot at 5328, 3rd lot at 5341 and the forth lot at 5354. Along with the entries stop too keeps moving in the direction of the trade.

Once the 2nd lot is filled our stop moves to 5276, on the 3rd lot getting filled the stop moves to 5289 and on the final lot the stop will be at 5302.
While this method is a very advantageous method for trend trading, we strictly ask the traders following the calls here to adhere to risk management. Once failed there and you give more leverage, whipsaw trades will put you out of the market. Any doubts on this trading methodology can be discussed on the thread in a ongoing basis.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Sector summary for 30th June 30, 2010.

Like the markets today, the sectors too had a upside down tilt. TECNOLOGY became the weakest and CONSUMER SERVICES was the strongest with a gain of 1.80% on its index value. Media industry, with a gain of close to 4% followed by Food processing industry, with a gain of close to 1.5% on its index was the major strength to bring the CONSUMER SERVICES Sector to the top.

Media Industry had a slew of big time gainers today. ZEEL 4.4%, SUNTV 3.4%, NDTV 4.1%, JAGRAN 4.7% while IBN and ENIL made gains of above 7%. Many of the stocks in this sector are already in the long trade. TV18 has been in buy from 80.00, NDTV from 109.00, ENIL from 227.00 where as IBN18 has just opened out into a new bullish trend.

On the TECHNOLOGY side, Hardware industry and Software Training Industry were big losers. CMC lost most of its previous days gains which along with SMARTLINK pulled down the Hardware Industry.

The top 5 Industries on the gaining side today are Media, Housing & Reality, Finance Term Lending and Tobacco Industries which gained above 3%. On the losing side it was Dyes and Pigments, Chemicals and Hardware Industry groups that have lost more than 1%.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Long trade gets stopped out. Short below 5240 on futures, stop 5299.
2nd lot 5225 stop 5284, 3rd lot 5210 stop 5269 and 4th lot 5195 stop 5254.

Add only on trigger, markets are not in tune but we cannot predict when they are going to settle too. Trade as the system gives signal & manage position to your advantage.