BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls
- Thread starter d_s_ramesh
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It's almost 4 hours past our entry on the short side, add on entries have not yet triggered, but market is hovering near the low the day. Of the NIFTY component list, 31 stocks are trending inthe hourly charts and 30 stocks trending in the daily chart. So, the market is clearly trending, but has a wide range in which it is making a zig zag pattern. Of the trending stocks on the daily we have a bullish majority while on the hourly bearish stocks have a lead. That is the reason we are having these continuous whipsaw trades now.
We have already hit 6th whipsaw and now the present short trade is yet to gather momentum.
We have already hit 6th whipsaw and now the present short trade is yet to gather momentum.
Sideways range likely to continue, markets to remain flat with more whipsaw trades. Daily charts lack strength, breach of low will bring the daily long trade to a close, while there are no reversal or long trade signals for the day.
Our short trade is likely to get a low risk exit if the markets open flat, hold on to the trade with stop.
Our short trade is likely to get a low risk exit if the markets open flat, hold on to the trade with stop.
Short cover cancelled, NIFTY turns down again. Market has gone into such a depressive state that it has travelled the whole session today on the thin swords edge. Moving in and out on the either side of the trend.
Todays tight range shows that the sideways move has almost come to its end. There is a likely breakout now, Which side??? We need not worry about it, we just hang in whichever direction the market wants to travel.
That is the beauty of trend following, there is no bias, no second guesing and no judgement. Only follow the system and plan, with discipline.
One more issue ringing hard now is the weekend carryover. With the markets going in a tight coil of price moves and prone to gaps, what would be our opening on Monday?????
That's the risk we need to take as traders. Well we will be with it, which ever direction Mr. Market takes.
Todays tight range shows that the sideways move has almost come to its end. There is a likely breakout now, Which side??? We need not worry about it, we just hang in whichever direction the market wants to travel.
That is the beauty of trend following, there is no bias, no second guesing and no judgement. Only follow the system and plan, with discipline.
One more issue ringing hard now is the weekend carryover. With the markets going in a tight coil of price moves and prone to gaps, what would be our opening on Monday?????
That's the risk we need to take as traders. Well we will be with it, which ever direction Mr. Market takes.
Weekly: Though being bullish, it is an exhausted bull on the weekly charts. NIFTY lacks strength to give any robust moves, 5400 is a big hurdle and at the last count effort in reaching the resistance zone we find total absence of bulls. MACD Histogram rests below zero showing the absence. Weekly chart has retraced multiple bearish divergences on the super strong indicator MACD, but, still not able to rush down into bearishness.
While most of the global markets have tanked, NIFTY is relentless in its effort to hold on to the prevailing bullish mood. This clearly suggests that on the trend reversal in the Global arena we are going to be the biggest beneficiary. Those of the investors and traders holding long term positions will have a ball of time when those situations come along very soon.
On a push down, 5200 or at the most 5165 will hold very strong resistance to the NIFTY on the weekly.
Daily: NIFTY is trending in the daily charts, but bullishness is off the screen for the time being. Previous day low was not breached and hence the long trade is still open from 5090 levels. MACD histogram moving below zero breaks the back of the bull; hence bring down the bullish power by a considerable value. Our bull is hurt now, even if it gains strength to surge ahead from here, it will not go a long way before it succumbs to back pain. After a high range see saw moves in the mid of the week NIFTY settled for a low range and tight session in the closing days of the week.
Presently at the value zone awaiting long exit below Fridays low, there is no signal to trade or add long here. Shrinkage of range is a sign that there is going to be a burst off on either side very soon. 5225 is a tight congestion area for the NIFTY on the daily charts, if to manage to breach it with immense power, only then we shall see the price drift to 5190-180 levels. Like we have had this week, there may be some false breaks to broaden the prevailing range, but snap back to close midway. So, Daily is close to taking rests or awaits fresh signals.
Hourly: After 6 whipsaw trades, the running seventh trade too is not doing well. NIFTY is non-trending on the hourly charts. Every move on the either side of the market gets snubbed within few hours by an equally strong reversal which does not have the momentum to move further. The fight here between both the bulls and bears has gone fierce shedding blood all along. There may be some prudent spectators who are enjoying short rides using intuition, but these cautious exits will hurt when markets turn into trends. Otherwise it is a pretty dull market in the hourly. There are very strong signs of bullishness on the indicators.
While a signal from a super strong indicator fails, it is a sign that something is fundamentally brewing underneath. While it does not show bearish direction too. We have a strong feel that the sideways market is likely to spill out into the next session too. But the tightening of daily range and snap back of price to value on almost every alternate hour shows that we are at the end of the sideways market.
Unbiased, lets keep following our trading system to join the ride when the markets open it out on us. Our open short trade which got carried over the weekend is likely to be safe in the first hour at least, and then it may take its course during the day.
US markets have closed pretty flat after doing an effortless run on the both sides. The same sentiment is likely to continue on the Asian open and spill out into our open too on MONDAY. Traders holding shorts please keep caution and apply stops. Do not expose more risk; keep capital safe for the ensuing rocking journey to come shortly.
While most of the global markets have tanked, NIFTY is relentless in its effort to hold on to the prevailing bullish mood. This clearly suggests that on the trend reversal in the Global arena we are going to be the biggest beneficiary. Those of the investors and traders holding long term positions will have a ball of time when those situations come along very soon.
On a push down, 5200 or at the most 5165 will hold very strong resistance to the NIFTY on the weekly.
Daily: NIFTY is trending in the daily charts, but bullishness is off the screen for the time being. Previous day low was not breached and hence the long trade is still open from 5090 levels. MACD histogram moving below zero breaks the back of the bull; hence bring down the bullish power by a considerable value. Our bull is hurt now, even if it gains strength to surge ahead from here, it will not go a long way before it succumbs to back pain. After a high range see saw moves in the mid of the week NIFTY settled for a low range and tight session in the closing days of the week.
Presently at the value zone awaiting long exit below Fridays low, there is no signal to trade or add long here. Shrinkage of range is a sign that there is going to be a burst off on either side very soon. 5225 is a tight congestion area for the NIFTY on the daily charts, if to manage to breach it with immense power, only then we shall see the price drift to 5190-180 levels. Like we have had this week, there may be some false breaks to broaden the prevailing range, but snap back to close midway. So, Daily is close to taking rests or awaits fresh signals.
Hourly: After 6 whipsaw trades, the running seventh trade too is not doing well. NIFTY is non-trending on the hourly charts. Every move on the either side of the market gets snubbed within few hours by an equally strong reversal which does not have the momentum to move further. The fight here between both the bulls and bears has gone fierce shedding blood all along. There may be some prudent spectators who are enjoying short rides using intuition, but these cautious exits will hurt when markets turn into trends. Otherwise it is a pretty dull market in the hourly. There are very strong signs of bullishness on the indicators.
While a signal from a super strong indicator fails, it is a sign that something is fundamentally brewing underneath. While it does not show bearish direction too. We have a strong feel that the sideways market is likely to spill out into the next session too. But the tightening of daily range and snap back of price to value on almost every alternate hour shows that we are at the end of the sideways market.
Unbiased, lets keep following our trading system to join the ride when the markets open it out on us. Our open short trade which got carried over the weekend is likely to be safe in the first hour at least, and then it may take its course during the day.
US markets have closed pretty flat after doing an effortless run on the both sides. The same sentiment is likely to continue on the Asian open and spill out into our open too on MONDAY. Traders holding shorts please keep caution and apply stops. Do not expose more risk; keep capital safe for the ensuing rocking journey to come shortly.
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