BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

Short cover above 5265 on NIFTY futures. No long trade signal yet. Exit only on Trigger.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Short cover signal goes off screen again. Continue shorts till next post. Market goes into a very tight range.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY had one of its tightest ranges today of just 30 points which was last seen close to 3 months back. Such tight moves set the platform ready for a good take off, sometimes with a false move on the breakout side and then into a good trend. NIFTY settles into the value zone after clearing long trade exit. While the market is bullish at present, a strong bearishness likely after a new high is breached. The next move up will be the last breadth of the bulls in the daily charts. There can be some prolonged sideways market or a sell off.

Result season should set the ball rolling on the bullish side to complete the divergence most needed. No trades at present on the daily charts, NIFTY needs to close above 5260 to go bullish.

Hourly charts went in and out of short exit, but kept the shorts going till the end of session. The averages have closed into a tight weave. A close between 5255-5262 will give cover short signal and a close above 5262 will give long trade signal. Now the direction of the market, at least for the next sessions moves to the mercy of the US markets.

A burst off is likely on the hourly charts too, very soon.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

The US markets being closed for Independence day holidays, direction less markets may continue in today's session too. So far it has been a mixed response on the Asian markets.

Sell IDFC below 179.25 with a stop of 184.00 on a return to mean trading strategy.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Short cover above the days high at 5262. Wait on side lines for next signals. Market is trading tight, but break out is expected very soon.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY is moving into bullishness, but the overall rating falls. Of the NIFTY component list less than 50% of the stocks are trending at the moment. This is a rare occurrence, but signals to be in sidelines. Await signals after improvement is seen in the trendiness of the market.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Rating stays below average. No trades to be done till above 50% of the constituent list moves into trend.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Long trade call on the NIFTY futures has come today on the daily charts, market made a strong recovery from lows closing with an above 1% gain. Trade long, above high on a daily position. As the MACD histogram has gone below zero and the histogram has no bearish divergence yet, NIFTY is likely to reach for a new high in the current up move which would in all likeliness be a new 52 week on the Index. The possibility of 5400 again is on the cards, if the strength is strong we may see the NIFTY reach next resistance at 5450.00. But, at the higher levels, daily chart would retrace strong bearish divergence and has a fair chance to a good bear hammering.

Hourly charts took off from the open and gave a long trade signal on the charts. There was an interesting pattern developed today. While the Index was surging higher, the number of stocks on the NIFTY losing their trendiness increased. NIFTY began the day with a 57% trendiness, dropping with every incoming hour and closing with 46%. It is common sense that if the component stocks do not trend the Index will hold the sideways pattern, but an exception is when the market goes into a transition. At close we have 30 Stocks trending on the daily while it is only 16 stocks that are trending in the hourly. Most of the stocks on the hourly charts have very low price range and are coiling between EMAs.

While there is a strong probability of prices snapping back to value, there is a fairly good chance that the market would turn into a strong bullish trend too. We need few more up close hours before this clarity emerges.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

HOURLY NIFTY turns towards a sharp reversal, our system did not permit long entry and hence nothing to loose. Market is in a severe non-decision mode, side ways pattern range widens an may take some more sessions to get in line with a new trend.

The number of trending stocks is dropping further today. It is 15 stocks now from the previous days tally of 16. Only 45% of the market is trending, this is a very ranre occurnence.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Back again to where we began this week with, all the gains of previous day erased in same speed. Now as we write here, we find the Global markets totally against our closing. So an up day in the next session. Daily NIFTY goes neutral without long trigger today.

Hourly was on a holiday mood today, Index rating was below 50%. That is, less than 50% of the constituent stocks were in trend and so no trade signals. And this has proved well for our trading account, we have saved 2 big whipsaw trades. At close today we have 29 trending stocks in the daily and 21 trending in the hourly.

A slight improvement from the previous days position. Now it is in the crucial position, but what the global market effects would have on our index is a far cry at present. This settling down will have a strong burst off when market goes into trend. It is likely to happen very soon.