BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

There is a bearish divergence on both Weekly and daily. This is a very clear pattern. This stock has a very close stop loss of just 1.50 points while the reward potential is above 20 points.

If charts turn positive before achieving target, you should be prudent enough to cover shorts.

Do clarify yourself with the charts before taking position. It is going to be futures contract, so play it safe.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Fortis Long call

FORTIS buy @174.30 with a stop of 166.00 and a target of 192.80.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY in rest

Nifty reaches the value zone recording the lowest volume after 16th March 2010. There is more of indecision building into the Index. INFOSYS results kept the whole of the Computer Software Industry in the lead today, still our Index which is quite tech heavy did not manage to record strength. Hourly charts do not show strength on either side. A re-test of 5290 again would confirm bullishness.

With the Indicators which supported the move up all turning down, some directions from the TECHNOLOGY sector would make the NIFTY find its last leg of bullish move in the next few sessions. On persistent weakness 5235 has the strong possibility of support. Between 5300 & 5235, NIFTY is likely to find support and bounce back.

The slow and steady bullish move without any technical backing is nearing its end; all the longs can be tightened with close stops. Get prepared for short trades as soon as the signals emerge.

On an up move, 5400 would find a very strong resistance. Only if the price moves past 5400 with an ultimate strength, that it can hang in there for further gains. Uphill Journey seems exhausted for now.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Technology left alone

Sectors today. TECHNOLOGYonly TECHNOLOGY was the gainer of more than 3% while most of the Sector Indexes were mostly negative, leading the weakness was the FINANCIAL Sector. Financial Services sub-sector with Housing Finance and Term Lending Industry groups were the weakest. Almost all the Industry group indexes in this sector have retraced bearish divergence on the weekly charts. On the market closes at these levels, for this week. The trend of the market will change to bearishness and signal short trades in many of the prominent stocks.

In the tightly consolidating market, Leather Products Industry group outperformed above the software stocks to register more than 4% gains on its index. BATA INDIA, is very strong here. The recent value trade triggered at 234 levels is close to reaching its target and there is still more room left for this stock to reach.

There are few Industry groups which are very strong at the moment and have good potential for long trades. Broad market weakness will give opportunities for long trades here. Have a close watch on Hospital Equipments, Diamonds, Leather Etc.,

We had a recommendation for trading long on FORTIS, which was not triggered on the Tuesdays trading session. While the signal holds validity with an entry above 173 for a target of 192.50. Stop remains the same.

Sugar Industry is showing signs of minor bottom, where there is a possibility of a small bounce to value zone. BAJAJ HINDUSTAN, has good risk/reward. As this Industry is in a strong bear grip, trades here need more caution. Trade for target exit only, if there is any weakness found before reaching target; it is advisable to exit positions even with small gains.

All our holding positions have closed weak along with the broad market except for ADORWELD, which showed good strength. Stops are intact on all the positions. SUNDARAM FASTENERS, shows some shaky moves as it has given back more than 8% from the high which it reached two days back. This position fell short of target by just a tick & it was a swift move to the highs which would not have allowed exit. MACD Histogram shows strength, we shall hold on until charts give any reason for alternate exits.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Warning .NIFTY turns weak

Alarm bell has ringed loud today. Nearest support levels breached on closing. NIFTY is well into the value zone. Tomorrows closing will decide the immediate trend of the market. A weaker close near todays level will initiate short trades on the daily charts. If there is a pullback from here, it would be a lucrative buy on the hourly charts for a target of 5370 levels.

For now the long trades on the daily charts shall tighten stop at 5235 levels. If Nifty trades below stop, exit only long trades, do not initiate shorts tomorrow. As the daily chart is yet to retrace any bearish divergence from the current move, there can be a pull back possibility even in the intraday.

Hourly trades already in short can hold on for further gains or till there is a reversal signal. Its a wait and watch tomorrow. Thread carefully, bear moves can be rampant. NIFTY has recorded 50% jump in volumes today, a falling day with big volumes indicate further weakness. At least a lower low before any pull back.

When markets turn weak, it is a buying opportunity on the strongest stocks. We have already written on several stocks which are very strong at the movement. Keep a close watch on them to trade long on upticks.

From our recommendations, BHARTI and NFL have signaled long exit. Exit long trades below todays low. FORTIS goes out of buy signal. All other stocks have their stops intact.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY. . . at its turning point.

Is the Bull Run over for now? We are not sure about it on the broad sense, but technicals does tell us that the end has come and is in the offing on a turnaround. It cannot be a one way run for anything for that matter. A ball thrown up should at one point turn around take a pitch and then go up again.

Whether it will move past its previous turning point depends upon the force of the pitch it takes. The same way it is with markets too. The brief bear move in January was hard enough to move the market past the previous high levels. But there is sure to be some exhaustion level, which is come now.

Weekly Charts have given permission to trade short. There is pretty strong bearish divergence on the MACD Lines, while MACD Histogram barely managed to show its head up when the market braced the new 52 week high. After 9 continuous weeks of up close, NIFTY has finally given way. If the next bear move is not going to be strong, we can expect the market stand range bound for quite some time.

NIFTY managed to hold on to support at 5235 levels and closed up, what next? Breach of 5235 is a short entry level. Exit longs at 5235 and trade short. While daily charts have not yet given good bearish divergence, if the 5235 low is not breached, there is a long trade in progress on the hourly chart for a target exit at 5370 levels.

On short entries getting triggered in the daily chart, there is all likeliness for the NIFTY to reach 5030 levels before any pull back comes. One more point to take note here is that the stop on the short trade is far away at 5411, which makes the short trade unviable on the Risk/Reward parameters. This shows that the market will pull up near to current resistance levels at 5400, form a strong bearish divergence on the daily charts too. Only then turn strongly bearish.

If this is not happening and the market turns bearish straightway from here, then it would not have big bear moves. In the event of market turning bearish from here without a re-test of previous highs there is a high probability of a sideways market for a prolonged period.

Though market fell significantly, volumes were dried up. This shows that there are not much sellers at the current levels. There is indecision ruling firm in the markets. With US markets showing big weakness towards the weekend, we are likely to follow suit, Financial Sector is into a big turmoil, watch out with strict stop losses on all your banking stocks. Banking Industry has developed very strong bearish divergence on weekly charts; it is the right time to exit long positions here.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Sectors for the week ending 16-04-2010

TECHNOLOGY leads with an above 3% gains while FINANCIALS was direct opposite with a close to 4% fall. Most of the Sectors closed weak, exceptions being TECHNOLOGY & CONSUMER SERVICES. There is no sector which has any room left for bullishness at present. Hence, we need to close long positions and initiate shorts both on the NIFTY index as well as individual stocks.

Which are the stocks that have the highest probability of winning on the short side having a good risk/reward? As for the sectors that favor good shorts are HEALTHCARE and BASIC MATERIALS.

ASIANPAINTS & SESAGOA looks the most attractive. HINDALCO is in short from last week. Among the HEALTHCARE sector, DRREDDY is in short from the past week.

The performance of stocks recommended by us too were dismal along with the broad markets. Both BHARTI & NFL were exited below previous day lows. BHARTI closed with a profit of Rs. 7.30 per share while NFL closed with a loss of 1.85 points. SUNDARAM FASTENERS has given an exit signal on Friday, close longs below 53.10. This stock fell short of target by a tick and is a great lesson of a good position turning weak, showing us the importance of targets when the broad market does not have good strength.

The other stocks ABGSHIP and ADORWELD though have closed weak are holding on to their stops.

There are many stocks which are very strong on the weekly charts even now. When there is a correction in the market, it is an opportunity to go long in these stocks. But, not in a falling market, wait for an uptick and get in, there can good rewards in the waiting.

APOLLOHOSPITAL, APOLLOTYRE, CADILA, CASTROL, TITAN,ULTRATECHCEM etc are some of the stocks which are among the list of strong stocks.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Indecision continues..

Down Gap opening of 1% on the Index today. Though the nearest support was breached, there was no close option for exit and reversal to short. Risk/Reward was not favorable for short trades. Price took support at 5160 levels; the index is not likely to give good gains on the daily charts.

Bullish moves which took close to one month to form was washed away in just 3 trading sessions. Bears jump through the window is always right. Market is bound to continue in a broad sideways pattern for some more sessions before a break out in any direction.

The fall was predominant in the ENERGY Sector which has recorded an above 2% drop. CONSUMER SERVICES Sector stayed put, it has managed to come out breakeven today. Though there was small weakness in the constituent stocks, ZEEL being positive pulled up the Index. Most of the stocks in this sector like TITAN, SUNTV, INDIAN HOTELS are yet to give confirmed bearish divergence on the weekly charts. If NIFTY has a pull up again from here, it is the stocks in this Sector that is going to be the stars.

Add the services sector stocks to your portfolios on upticks. SUNTV & TITAN can be put into close watch.

ENERGY Sector has lost its shine. Any adverse news in the market, they are the first to react, though they are not related to the news. This shows that whatever up moves these stocks show are all false, reactions can be steep.

BASIC MATERIALS Sector followed the weakest sector today; it was Steel, Pesticides and Paper industry groups that pulled down this index. Paper industry was the star in the past week. Any weakness here is accumulation opportunity. Watch BALLARPUR & TNPL here.

Telecom Equipments Industry showed big weakness today. There is opportunity here too. Watch SIEMENS, get in on an uptick. It is a pretty strong stock to trade long at this moment.

Weakness in the Shipping Industry, hit our ABGSHIP to exit on stop trigger.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Broad based pull back rally.

There was a broad based pull back rally today, many sectors reached above 1% gains. FINANCIALS lead the rally followed by ENERGY and INDUSTRIALS. When the broad market is weak, what is this rally signifying. SELL AT HIGHER LEVELS. Either there is a strong bear move in the offing or the market is likely to settle into a broad based sideways move.

TECHNOLOGY sector lacked support and was the weakest today losing above 1% on its index. Patterns show that the sideways range is likely to continue. When the consolidation hits a big range, there is possibility of considerable gains on the intraday charts.

Longer timeframes like the monthly charts are clearly showing sideways patterns on the NIFTY. Without the weekly charts forming a bullish divergence there is no chance for any good bullish moves. Daily chart has closed below EMA even today, with a very low price range there was good pick up in volumes.

Intraday shorts on NIFTY have locked close to 80 points in gains from 5329. As charts have started to tighten, there is a possibility of reversal.

NFL, is a re-entry at 101 with a stop of 98 and a target of 143.

 

[prasham]

Re: Broad based pull back rally.

Intraday shorts on NIFTY have locked close to 80 points in gains from 5329. As charts have started to tighten, there is a possibility of reversal.[/B][/COLOR]

Pardon my ignorance but Reversal in which direction? UP or DOWN?