BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY closes in the sweet zone.

NIFTY has closed between EMAs in a very tight ranged trade today. Shorts on the hourly charts have to be covered in the next session. Long trades above todays high can be traded with stop of 5240 levels for the closest resistance target of 5294 levels.

Along with price Volumes too closed flat. Many strong stocks like ULTRATECH CEM, SIEMENS have given uptick, which can be used to trade long. Though these stocks look pretty strong, charts indicate a tight squeeze in price. This is a sign of sideways moves. Hence expose very low risks in the market until there is some clear direction on the price moves.

CONSUMER SERVICES sector performed strong today with an above 2% gain on its Index. Hotels and Retail Industry groups were strong and managed to close with good gains. All other Sectors except BASIC Materials closed with small gains.

NFL, long entry was not triggered today whereas the signal is still open with a new entry level of 100.40, stop 98.05 and a target of 142.60.
ULTRATECH, long above 1113.90 with a stop of 1082 and a target of 1193.80.
SIEMENS, Long above 722 with a stop of 689.50 for a target of 782.50.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Upside reversal was likely, but there was tight range moves today. On the up moves 5295-5330 levels would prove very strong resistances. There are more chances for sideways moves at present. Only a strong breakout would give the next direction for the market.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

High Volatility steps in.

NIFTY had rampant moves today, it had a range of 100 points, but gave back most of the gains at close. Widening range and non directional moves indicates that this indecision is likely to continue for some more sessions. NIFTY faced stiff resistance at 5330 levels, though managed to pierce it, there was no follow up buying power to move it further up.

Complete absence of buyers made the NIFTY crash in the last 30 minutes. This shows in the lower volumes recorded today when compared to previous day. NIFTY will hold on to 5150-5330 range in the coming days. Once all the weaker hands in the market get out after many whipsaw trades, there is a likely breakout to give the next direction for NIFTY.

None of the Industry groups which have bullish strength were weak today. Only if there is weakness here, we would get opportunities to trade long. We have given a separate list of stocks which have high probabilities of strong bullish strength in a different thread Strong Industries & Stocks.

Have a close watch on all those stocks. Of them the recommended stocks for today, NFL, SIEMENS & ULTRATECH got filled. There were no big gains in these new long trades, hold with stops. ADORWELD which is in open position for quite some days now is safe above entry, but far away from target. Hold on to stops.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Re-test of high on NIFTY

With an up close today after an almost flat day from the beginning, has added some strength on the bullish side on the NIFTY. On continued support NIFTY will likely re-test the previous high levels. 5370-5390 is the key resistance at the moment.

With weekly chart holding very strong bearish divergence, there are chances of a prolonged sideways move. In case of weakness support is found at 5190 levels. Hourly charts have traded long above 5300 with a stop of 5250. Hold long positions for the target at resistance levels.

Trade with utmost caution as there is indecision in the market.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Slow moving NIFTY

NIFTY gave a small gain and an up close today, while there is dwindling volume, which has been reduced by 33% compared to that on Thursday and Friday. As daily charts did not have bearish divergence on the previous weakness, there was not much down fall seen. The current move a close above 5360 on the daily chart will give bearish divergence and that would add to the Weekly divergence and shorts would get prominent.

The present resistance for NIFTY is at 5370-390 levels. Hold intraday long positions for reversal. On both daily and weekly turning bearish will there be a big bear move? A question most prominent in many market participants' minds. The answer as per the picture at present does not seem so. There is likely to be small bearish moves and then the index would try moving up again. As last quarter results start coming out we find that the performance in robust.

Hence this bullish move is likely to continue, but with a slow pace. Why in slow pace? Many sectors have gone either neutral or weaker on performance to the index. While some big players in the market have started mirroring their Sector performance, there are some Industry groups which are very strong even now and the stocks of those groups are aiming for big gains. This will keep the index moving up while the weaker heavy weights would keep pulling it down. Not knowing which direction to give predominance to, the NIFTY will hold sideways pattern.

BASIC MATERIALS Sector gave a very strong move up today with an above 2% gains. Most of the Industry groups in this index were gainers, lead by Aluminum, Pig & Sponge Iron, Mining minerals and Metals. FINANCIAL Sector followed in the gainers list today, but with minimal gains.

Hospital Industry was the weakest, while the Weekly chart of this industry is strong; the out performer in this Industry group is FORTIS. We have already traded long on this stock, which is trailing today. On the stop getting triggered, wait for re-entry, there is a sure winning trade here. If the stock holds on the initial stop, next move up will see this stock reach target of 192.50.

APOLLO HOSPITALS is a strong stock, add to watch list, wait for an uptick to trade long.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Sectors today

NIFTY went into another range bound trading day. It stayed within previous days range and has closed fairly weak, while staying above 5300. 5370 is the key resistance and 5235 a broad support. NIFTY is likely to hover within this 135 point range, it will get tightened further and then a breakout in either direction will determine the new trend.

ENERGY Sector leads the rally today on a lack luster trading day. While the sector is weak, who moved the coin? It was CAIRN & ONGC, which have outperformed the index. CAIRN was in an intraday buy list today above 302 with a target of 317. Next moves will reach the target.

HEALTHCARE Sector followed second with marginal gains on both Pharma and Hospitals. Otherwise a broadly dull market, with BASIC MATERIALS Sector leading the weakness. Most of the Industry groups in the BASIC MATERIALS Sector registered weakness except for Chemicals, Pig & Sponge Iron and Fertilizers. Our Stock pick NFL, has registered above 5% gains today.

Leather Products gave a giant leap today with BATAINDIA registering close to 10% gains. Watch this stock to trade long on pull back to value.

Of our open calls, SIEMENS is in the range below entry. ULTRATECH and FORTIS though closed weak are holding on to stop levels. ADORWELD awaits 190-180 range break.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Beware of crash

Global clues for the day are pretty weak. An already weak market on yesterdays close will see strong gap down opening today. European financial mess is spreading. Market is in for a toss. With bearish sentiment prevailing in the weekly charts, daily charts should allow shorts after today's close.

Volatile markets tend to squeeze small investors and traders. Trade cautiously. As we write Japan is nearing a 3% fall on the Index and Singapore is weaker by a percent and above. US markets were down above 2% on major indices.

It is shopping time for strong bullish stocks, identify the best of them and wait for a pullback.

5190 should hold support on the NIFTY if there is a major fall. Be alert on reversals. There can be gold lying on the floor unknown. It's time to shop when the market is in panic.

Happy trading.

 

[prasham]

Re: Beware of crash

Global clues for the day are pretty weak. An already weak market on yesterdays close will see strong gap down opening today.

It is shopping time for strong bullish stocks, identify the best of them and wait for a pullback.

a) Yes, as you had predicted market opened with a downward gap. Thanks for posting your valuable inputs here.

b) Any other stock you wish to recommend apart from the one's you've already recommended? What is your view on Welspun Gujarat?

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Welguj

WELGUJ belongs to the Steel Tubes and Pipes Industry group and the BASIC INDUSTRIES Sector. This stock is the Industry leader on Free float market cap, but an underperformer to its index. Both BASIC INDUSTRIES and STP charts have retrced bearish divergence on the weekly.

The Index of Steel Tubes and Pipes industry is an outperforming Industry in the present market. There are very few Industries which have registered above 200% gains in the present bull move and this Industry is one among the leaders.

WELGUJ is non trending in the Daily chart, the previous signal on the long trade had a close to 15% move up from 250, but the stock gave back in a hurry.

Weekly chart has retraced bearish divergence on both MACD Lines and MACD Histogram. This stock is a good short candidate if it hits air pocket from here. Else not very attractive on any timeframe.

SURYAROSHNI and MAHASEAM are attractive in this industry group

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY changes direction.

After trying to sustain into a range, going against global markets, NIFTY has gone in sync with the Global Trend now. Across the board weakness has pulled the index down close to 2%, the chart patterns have rightly set in for shorts. Stop loss for short trades is again far away compared to its reward. On breach of 5190, support is likely at 5090.

The India story is far brighter for the global markets to make any dent here. Any immediate measures to curb the financial crisis of Greece and Poland will have a knee jerk reaction on our index. It will start its march up once again. The market is non-trending, it is not the right market for trend traders.

Switch over to oscillators from trending indicators, if you plan to make some money on the Index trades. If not sitting on the sidelines is the best advice. Else we have to be prepared to give back some of the fantastic gains made in the past one year to test the markets for winning trades.

Change to stock trades instead of trading on the Index is good for now. There are some very strong stocks even at this moment and these broad based weaknesses are buying opportunity there. Fold your sleeves, hook up your shopping bag and start hunting.

Happy trading.