BraViSa TempleTree-India Market Calls

[prasham]

Re: Welguj

Thanks for your advice on Welspun Gujarat.

SURYAROSHNI and MAHASEAM are attractive in this industry group

a) Does Surya Roshni looks great on charts? Or is it due to its recent announcement regarding its new upcoming projects? BTW did you read its recent clarification wherein they've mentioned that the new projects wouldn't come up under Surya Roshni or its subsidiaries. Thus fundamentally this stock doesn't look a hot cake. Atleast not in this turbulent times.

b) Maharashtra Seamless is a great stock and is in my watchlist since quite some time.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Surya roshni

Technicals on the stock is robust. Whatever is the fundamentals or the news for that matter. Price is king, if you percieve some news to be negative to the stock but the stock still moves up, it means we have judged the news wrong.

Combining fundamentals with technicals is though necessary, we presume it only on the broad level. Adding too much to analysis will lead to paralysis. Price says it is bullish, it is left to us to trade it or not.

If the news was against the stock, it would have plumetted down by now. Whereas today we have got an up close on this stock. Trade long above 89.90 with a stop of 85.70. This position can have a trailing exit, there are posibiities to reach 105.

For us, the stock is calling out loud to get onboard when the train has stopped for re-fuelling. Get along enjoy the ride. Trading is a slippery road to success, so be cautious. Exit on first signs of weakness.

 

[prasham]

Re: Surya roshni

If the news was against the stock, it would have plumetted down by now. Whereas today we have got an up close on this stock.

That is exactly what I had thought! Yes maybe I have interpreted the update in a wrong way!

Thanks for the guidance.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Dancing to the Global tunes

NIFTY joined its global peers and gave an up close today which is above the EMA. Now the short signal goes off screen. Up, down, up, up, down in the course of the move coiling between EMAs, market is dumb struck not knowing where to go. Total indecision is prevailing at the moment. It is better to leave off NIFTY for a time being and concentrate on stocks.

It was a mixed bag today with exact 50% of the sectors in positive and the rest negative. All the sectors have retraced bearish divergence on the weekly charts. There are few Industry groups which are bullish; the current indecision in the market is rendering most of the strong stocks into non-trending zone.

FINANCIAL and UTILITY Sector was leaders today with HEALTHCARE and CONSUMER SERVICES doing badly. Those stocks which are still strong has not retraced in the current move. From the dried tap, we could find few good stocks at present.

BALLARPUR, VENKEYS & MAHASEAMLESS, trade long above previous days highs. When the broad market moves up, these stocks would outperform. Like we had SURYA ROSHNI today.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Tight Range.

Another tight range day on the NIFTY today. Though it had an up close, there are multiple resistances ahead. Global markets have tanked again. We will see another gap opening on Monday. Will the fall hold to 5200 support is to be watched? NIFTY has gone into non-trend on the Daily charts. Immediate range is 5295-5190; a decisive break in either direction will determine the future course.

Two good shorts

ABB, short below 744.80 with a stop of 857.50 and trail the position.
RANBAXY, short below 431.65 with a stop of 462.90 and trail the position.
Bothe the calls are long term bets based on the weekly charts.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

stock calls on the daily chart

Long
BPCL, above 521.95 with 500 as stop & trail with 1st target of 550.
ONGC, above 1061.30, 1033.20 stop, 1100 1st target and trail.
COLPAL, above 746.95, 738.35 stop, 765 1st target and trail.
HINDPETRO, obove 318.90, 300 stop, 360 1st target and trail.
IOB, above 97.05, 94.50 stop, 106.30 1st target and trail.
PFC, above 276.90, 267.15 stop, 286 1st target and trail.

Short
RANBAXY, below 440.30, 451 stop & 398 as target.
RCAP, below 734.05, 748.45 stop & 704 as target.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY at support

NIFTY holds support at 5200 in a tight range day. As Daily charts are into neutral zone. NIFTY is likely to play within 5200-5300 range. WE may see a rally tommorow. If the market breaks 5200 the next support is at 5100 levels.
If this has to happen, we would see broadening of current range.

Our markets will follow Global clues, at the time of this writing US market has bounced into Green. It shows a positive opening into the next session.

Shorts in play on the hourly charts have formed bullish divergence on the MACD Histogram on the closest available low. Hourly charts are trending for good now.

Most of our stock calls have got filled and a few got stopped out too. One of our open calls ADORWELD showed strong performance breaking resistance. SIEMENS has given exit signal. Exit long below todays low.

BALLARPUR got filled long and is trading strong.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

Calls for the day

ONGC, which was not filled yesterday stands cancelled for long trade.

COLPAL, target reached.

PFC, Long not filled, entry changed to 271.50, stop 267.15 and target 284.20.

RANBAXY, stopped out on Daily, Weekly not filled.

ADORWELD, Close to target.

SIEMENS, Exit long below today's low.

BALLARPUR, hold position with stop.

NFL, holding gains, keep opening stop loss order intact.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

NIFTY breaks range bearish.

NIFTY broke the nearest support of 5200 & has closed near to next support at 5100. As the Daily chart is in non-trend a decisive break of 5100 with added strength will only turn the direction of NIFTY to bearish. Now that the range has increased, intraday positions get more moving space.

Daily positions on NIFTY needs a wait and watch strategy. Short trades which got entry at 5265 levels are trading above 125 points profit. These positions can be retained till a reversal is signaled.

SECTORS:
BASIC MATERIALS: This sector has leaded the fall with a 3.74% fall in its index value. All the Industry groups belonging to this Sector have closed negative with Aluminum losing more than 5% followed by Steel losing close to 5%. JINDALSTEEL is a short candidate here.

INDUSTRIALS: This sector followed the bearishness with an above 2% loss on its Index value. Cement, Civil Construction, Packaging, Engineering was big losers. There are shorts in play in many stocks here.

HEALTHCARE & ENERGY sectors were not much affected by the negative sentiments prevailing in the market at present. Most of the ENERGY sector stocks have started rising from their present lows. We have long plays in the top stocks in this Industry.

Of our stock positions, SIEMENS got exited with a 30 point loss. NFL, has signaled exit below todays low. IOB got stopped out. PFC, got filled long, HINDPETRO was strong against the weak market. BPCL, though gave back gains, it is holding strength.

ON the short side, RELCAP has gained momentum, hold for targets.

TV-18, ZEEL and RELINFRA are short blow todays low. As the broad market is weak, exit part positions at nearest support and trail for further gains.

 

[d_s_ramesh]

All near supports breached.

NIFTY has breached tight congestion zones. What next? The strong pull back at close shows that the bottom is formed for the time being. With the Daily histogram going deeper a pull back is an opportunity to short.

Financial turmoil in Europe gains more momentum with Portugal on the sidelines for a possible downgrade. Riots in Greece over financial mess shows that weakness is likely to continue. This weeks close is crucial for NIFTY. A close below 5060 would turn the weekly charts to bearishness.

Wait for an opportunity for NIFTY to reach value zone close to 5200 levels and tick down to short on daily chart. Hourly charts short trade has not gained much today, but continues to be in short. All the indicators on the hourly chart are strong on the bearish side.

TECHNOLOGY, HEALTHCARE and TELECOM Sectors were strong in the weak market today. These are the sectors that pulled the index from lows today. BASIC MATERIALS was the weakest sector today. Steel Pig Iron & Sponge Iron Industry took a plunge with close to 4% erosion of value on its Index.

Calls for today.
Long stocks:
HDFC, above 2811.50, stop at 2783.90 with a trailing exit.

AXISBANK, above 1251.65, stop at 1219.40 with a trailing exit.

PFC, above 276.50, stop @ 267, trailing exit.

ADANIENT, above 570.60, stop at 558.80 & trailing exit.

RNRL, above 69, stop at 67.50 & a trailing exit.

SYDICATE BK, above 92.90, stop at 87 & trailing exit.

Short stocks:
CAIRN, below 295 with 317.90 stop.

HDFCBANK, below 1880 with 1984 stop.

RPOWER, below 151.60 with 163.50 stop.

UNITECH, below 76.55 with 83.40 stop.

RCAP, called for short reached target today. PFC, triggered stop and has given re-entry signal. BPCL and HINDPETRO are going strong.