Bulls, Bears & The Lion

[nimish_rulz]

Warning... go long if you like but play safe... I see DOW below 9000 and SPX below 900 in time to come... and we may not see 5400 anytime soon

I have never traded Declining triangle formations and would like to see some expert comments on it. Yes PT bhai your Tukka Comments too

What I can see from the image. Dow will break the triangle today if it closes where it does and that is a very bullish sign isnt it?

 

[findvikas]

No this chart is at LTP as I am looking at Futures.. which are trading at discount. This chart is not of SPOT market.. they must have the similar pattern.. let me confirm.

 

[findvikas]

Here is Spot chart - with same pattern and still under the triangle.. break will come near 10200

 

[nimish_rulz]

No this chart is at LTP as I am looking at Futures.. which are trading at discount. This chart is not of SPOT market.. they must have the similar pattern.. let me confirm.

Yes. But if the triangle is breached by the future will that be bullish sign? Because for me 10160 is a massive resistance from downward slopping trendline. It rebounded at 10150 in the cash market. Here is the chart:

A break of 10050 I will go short on the Dow. I was expecting above 10,000 levels on the Dow by today and yesterday and it obliged both days.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Here is Spot chart - with same pattern and still under the triangle.. break will come near 10200

LOL yes similar graph. Do u use gtalk? Give me your id I trade foreign markets too would be good to get your views

 

[findvikas]

PM you my id

 

[kingfisher3210]

All right. The job data is bad- Unemployment claims are up.

Looks to me euro ran because of ECB conference and then following it, dow ran like a horse.

I am watching dow since 6 PM data release and Dow futures ran quite fast as euro climbed during 6 P.M ECB conference.

Trichet must have said something to drive euro up.

But i will wait how US closes..they cant ignore bad job data.

 

[nimish_rulz]

All right. The job data is bad- Unemployment claims are up.

Looks to me euro ran because of ECB conference and then following it, dow ran like a horse.

I am watching dow since 6 PM data release and Dow futures ran quite fast as euro climbed during 6 P.M ECB conference.

Trichet must have said something to drive euro up.

But i will wait how US closes..they cant ignore bad job data.

Job data wasn't bad if you read it properly. The claims went up to 456,000 but also last month people who were already on claim got reduced by biggest number since december 2008. The roll over dropped by 256,000. So the new claims reduced by 3,000 to 456,000 6,000 below expectation but the roll over claim drop was a massive number some 25% better than the analyst forecast that means these people either found a new job or according to me they might be on a holiday:rofl:

 

[findvikas]

Disclaimer: These numbers are from someone who is expert in this and far from my capability to make out any sense from it. I had a discussion with him on the evening of NFP and he wrote this to me and predicted a big fall in numbers.

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As a point of comparison, NFP for April was +290,000. Of course, in reality +59,000 of those were temporary census workers, +26,200 came from other temporary workers, and +188,000 of that was completely made up:

• Unemployed rate ticked up to 9.9% from 9.7%
• Total U3 unemployed is 15.3 million people
• U-6 Total unemployment rose to 17.1% (another 9.2 million people)
• Revisions were positive: February revised from -14,000 to +39,000, and March was revised upwards from 162,000 to 230,000
• Temp workers increased 26,200.
• An influx of Census workers added 59,000, on top of the +66,000 employees last month.
• Birth Death Adjustment was +188k (was +81K in March)

So in April, we created +9,800 full-time permanent jobs, +26,200 temp jobs, +59,000 (temporary) census jobs and +188,000 phantom jobs that exist only in the Bureau of Lies and Statistics model.

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Don't trust the numbers... either stay technical or fundamental trader... mixing them together is going to be a disaster... Buy the rumors , sell the news and you will be fine

 

[kingfisher3210]

Job data wasn't bad if you read it properly. The claims went up to 456,000 but also last month people who were already on claim got reduced by biggest number since december 2008. The roll over dropped by 256,000. So the new claims reduced by 3,000 to 456,000 6,000 below expectation but the roll over claim drop was a massive number some 25% better than the analyst forecast that means these people either found a new job or according to me they might be on a holiday

You are right but as far as my experience tells, market weighs more on unemployment claims data which was below expectation. Dow reacted initially by dropping 0.32% after 6 P.M but went up.

What i am sensing is euro is up, risk appetite is back in the market, Dow is up, FTSE 100 is up, nikke 225 futures is up, gold is down, oil is up, treasuries are down- This whole 'ecosystem' of risk appetite is currently kicking live.

Yahoo is mentioning dow is up because of china data, my intuition says Dow is up because euro went up due to ECB conference, Your knowledge says Dow is up because of good data.

Different people, different theories but all leading to collective 'buying mindset' .