Dear Escape
I think you do a very good thread here as it makes clear to others and to you, how difficult it is to trade naked directional options purely on TA. In the long run, not many make profit with it, even most will lose there capital to do so.
I went through your first post of this thread where you explained, that you not will hedge either using any option strategy. I mean: What you do now is throwing a coin in the air and you have a 50 / 50% situation. That is the nice thing in trading. There is no other business in the world where we can have such a high change to make money by knowing nothing or just little about a subject.
Even than: Where could be your advantage to win the game in the long run? As you do it with the 50 / 50% change, you would have made the biggest profit by putting all the money you had in to the first trade and you would have doubled your money. That was your biggest chance and that is gone. Now you are on a road by losing little peaces all the way down and if not some thing special happens or you double your risk, you are catche'd in a whole. So you have to improve your odds.
But how can you improve your odds? Here you have to find an answer.
and it is surely not an indicator which is going to do it.
Good trading
DanPickUp
Dear Dan,
Thank you for your post and showing insight.
Everyone needs to go through experience and learn lessons (bad or good). Even I'm on that same path, kept some budget for this exercise and as given in my first post, this is to learn tactic, and survive as long possible on this limited budget.
My current goal with this amount and exercise is not to get easy profits, but see and feel difficulties of options trading (the one with high risk and high reward). If I would have got easy profit in earlier stage, I may not have learnt disciplines (like putting Stop Losses, manage risk, money management).
Since day I started this post, I can see improvement in following areas to name few:
1. Put stop loss, at least some thing. Earlier I use to put target, but no stop losses and seen huge losses. Still I'm loosing every day, but limited losses.
2. Started reading charts indepth (identifying support/resistance, different types of candles, yesterday noticed twice cup-handle reversal patterns, etc)
3. End of day, I'm seriously going through each trades in chart and seeing what I could have done to improve situation in my favor.
4. As required, I'm changing my strategies, my own based on my style.
5. Learnt usefulness and applicability of Moving Averages, RSI, CCI for oversold/overbought), Bollinger-band, ADX and MACD (these are my favorites ones). One important one Stochastic still I'm missing. But wanted to use those minimally and don't want to make situation complex.
6. Learnt different ways to calculate Stop Losses, (based on SAR, ATR, changing SL based on value of RSI, etc)
7. Learnt to accept my mistakes.
On top of this, as a bonus, I'm getting wonderful messages, support and guidance from senior and experienced professionals, like you, ethan hunt, timepass, soft_trader, TraderRavi and others.
All said, still every day I'm loosing real money.
I have investment in stocks too and that is doing well and improved because of this exercise a lot. But again that are not used as hedging against this option trade.
I do stock trading on EoD basis.
Thank you again for message and may be one day instead of doing naked option trading, I may opt for paired-based strategies. But before that, need to learn to think like professional.
:thanx: DanPickUp, and kindly keep posting messages, directly/indirectly we are learning lot from your experiences.
Regards,
Escape