Forexpros Daily Analysis

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Dec 08-Dec 11,2009

Forexpros Fundamental Weekly Outlook, Dec 08-Dec 11,2009

EU:
Monday: Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (Previous -7, Forecast N/A). Germany Factory Orders MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast 0.8%). & YoY (Previous -13.1%, Forecast -6.2%).
Tuesday: Bank of France Business Sentiment (Previous 95.0, Forecast N/A). Germany Industrial Production MoM (Previous 2.7%, Forecast 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -12.9%, Forecast -10.2%).
Wednesday: Germany Trade Balance (Previous 10.6B, Forecast 10.7B). Germany Current Account (Previous 9.4B, Forecast 9.4B). Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM (Previous -0.2%, Forecast -0.2%) & YoY (Previous 0.3%, Forecast 0.3%).
Thursday: France Industrial Production MoM (Previous -1.5%, Forecast 0.6%) & YoY (Previous -10.4%, Forecast -6.7%)

US:
Wednesday: Wholesale Inventories (Previous -0.9%, Forecast -0.5%).
Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -36.5B, Forecast -37.0B), Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 457K, Forecast 465K).
Friday: Retail Sales (Previous 1.4%, Forecast 0.6%), Retail Sales Less Autos (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.5%). University of Michigan Confidence (Previous 67.4, Forecast 68.5). Business Inventories (Previous -0.4%, Forecast -0.2%).

JP:
Monday: Official Reserve Assets (Previous 1056.88B, Forecast N/A), Current Account (Previous 1567.9B, Forecast 1483.2B).
Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 599.2B, Forecast 862.3B). Bank Lending (Previous -1.5%, Forecast N/A), Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Previous 40.9, Forecast 40.0) & Outlook (Previous 42.8, Forecast N/A).
Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Previous 1.2%, Forecast 0.7%A), & YoY (Previous 4.8%, Forecast 2.8%).
Thursday: Machine Orders MoM (Previous 10.5%, Forecast -4.5%) & YoY (Previous -22.0%, Forecast -21.0%).
Friday: Consumer Confidence (Previous 40.8, Forecast N/A).

UK:
Tuesday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.6%, Forecast 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -10.3%, Forecast -7.6%).
Wednesday: Trade Balance (Previous -3469M, Forecast -3175M).
Thursday: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Previous 0.50%, Forecast 0.50%)
Friday: PPI Output MoM (Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 1.7%, Forecast 2.9%).

AU:
Monday: AiG Perf of Construction Index (Previous 50.9, Forecast N/A).
Tuesday: Current Account (Previous -13347M, Forecast -16650M).
Wednesday: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Previous -2.5%, Forecast N/A). Trade Balance (Previous -1849M, Forecast -1805M).
Thursday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.8%, Forecast 5.9%). Employment Change (Previous 24.5K, Forecast 5.0K).

CA:
Monday: Building Permits (Previous 1.6%, Forecast 1.0%).
Tuesday: Bank of Canada Rate (Previous 0.25%, Forecast 0.25%).
Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -0.9B, Forecast -0.7B)

Fundamental Forex Weekly Outlook by Forexpros
Stay updated with all events relevant to trading with the Forexpros Economic Calendar

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 09/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 9, 2009

Free Webinar On Forexpros: Using Time and Patterns to Pinpoint Entry and Exit Points

Hosted by: Raghee Horner of Auto Chartist
Thu, Dec 10, 2009, 08:00 EST/13:00 GMT

Where are the currency markets headed? How can I take advantage of time and expected pip movement to identify opportunities? How to filter out and confirm set ups? What strategies can I employ to limit risk? Join Raghee Horner, a best-selling author and professional trader with over 15 years experience, as she applies unique trading methodology to helping you trade your views in the forex market. Raghee will also help you to identify the market cycle and learn to set up and use her 34ema Wave allowing you to effectively position yourself in the markets.

Click Here To Join Free

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Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance Index

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Trade Balance index report Tomorrow (Dec 10), which measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports).
This is the largest component of the US's balance of payments.
Export data gives a reflection on the US growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the USD.
Analysts expect tomorrow's Index to remain stable since last month, indicating a defacit of 36.50 Billions Dollars.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro slightly surpassed the resistance 1.4844 before completely surrendering to the downtrend. It dropped and successfully reached the first target 1.4724, and came somehow close to the second target 1.4649 (the low until this very moment is 1.4667). In spite of this big drop, we still have not made it yet to Fibonacci 38.2% for the long term (for the rise from 1.3747) at 1.4610. Short-term support is at 1.4649, and breaking it would mean we will be targeting the above mentioned Fibonacci level first at 1.4610, and then the support area 1.4510/1.4518 that includes several daily bottoms. Short-term resistance is at the Asian session high 1.4734, breaking it would mean that the Euro will have a chance to catch a breath after this big drop. Breaking this resistance will target at least 1.4847, and may be 1.4903 as well.

Support:
• 1.4649: Oct 7th low.
• 1.4610: Fibonacci 38.2% for the long-term (for the rise from 1.374).
• 1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.

Resistance:
• 1.4734: Asian session high.
• 1.4847: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139
• 1.4903: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the rising trendline from 85.07 at 88.75 and successfully reached the first target 88.33. Breaking this line indicates there is a continuation of the downside pressures, that emerged after Friday’s top, and if it continues, we will break today’s support which is yesterday’s low 88.16, and would target Fibonacci 50% at 87.78 first, and may be the most important support for the time being : Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up-move from 84.81 at 87.08. But as we can see from the attached chart, the drop stopped at the moving average SMA100, which could provide a chance for a bounce back up, in what could be (at least) a correction for the drop from Friday’s top. In this case the price will break intraday resistance at 88.48, and would ideally target the area that is bordered by Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 89.15 & Fibonacci 61.8% at 89.76.

Support:
• 88.16: yesterday’s low.
• 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
• 87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.

Resistance:
• 88.48: intraday resistance.
• 89.15: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.
• 89.76: Fibonacci 38.2% for short-term.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. For a comprehensive directory of Forex brokers see Forexpros.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 10/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 10, 2009


Free Webinar On Forexpros TODAY: Using Time and Patterns to Pinpoint Entry and Exit Points

Hosted by: Raghee Horner of Auto Chartist
Thu, Dec 10, 2009, 08:00 EST/13:00 GMT

Where are the currency markets headed? How can I take advantage of time and expected pip movement to identify opportunities? How to filter out and confirm set ups? What strategies can I employ to limit risk? Join Raghee Horner, a best-selling author and professional trader with over 15 years experience, as she applies unique trading methodology to helping you trade your views in the forex market. Raghee will also help you to identify the market cycle and learn to set up and use her 34ema Wave allowing you to effectively position yourself in the markets.

Click Here To Join Free

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Fundamental Analysis: US Census Bureau

The US Census Bureau will release the Core Retail Sales report tomorrow (Dec 11).
The report is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
Analysts predict tomorrow's report to indicate a rate of 0.60%, an increase form last month's rate of 0.20%.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro surpassed the resistance 1.4734 without being able to advance, but at the same time, it did not break or approach the support 1.4649. It seems that the fluctuation we have seen has started building a small triangle pattern, with its limits at 1.4734 & 1.4681, and breaking any of these limits is what will set the direction for the short-term. If we break support at 1.4681 we will target Fibonacci 38.2% (for the rise from 1.3747) which is now closer than ever at 1.4610, and then the support area 1.4510/1.4518 that includes several daily bottoms. Short-term resistance is at the supposed triangle pattern limit 1.4734, breaking it would mean that the Euro will have a chance to catch a breath after this big drop. Breaking this resistance will target at least 1.4847, and may be 1.4903 as well.

Support:
1.4681: the lower limit for the supposed triangle pattern.
1.4610: Fibonacci 38.2% for the long-term (for the rise from 1.374).
1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.

Resistance:
1.4734: the upper limit for the supposed triangle pattern.
1.4847: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139.
1.4903: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.16 and successfully reached the first suggested target 87.78, but stayed relatively far from the second target, and the most important support for now 87.08. The importance of 87.08 will carry on for the rest of the week, since it is Fibonacci 61.8% support for the rise from 84.81. As we can see from the attached chart, the rising move during the Asian session has bumped into the previously broken trendline. And for the technical outlook for the Dollar, we should surpass this line which is currently at 88.25. Therefore, we should wait for a break of the support or resistance before we can predict the direction of short-term. If we break the resistance 88.25 this pair can surprise some by reaching areas above 89 such as 89.17 or 89.70. on the other hand, if the most important support for now 87.08 is broken, the downtrend will continue with confidence, and the next set of targets will be 86.29 & 85.71.

Support:
87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
86.29: important intraday level on hourly chart.
85.71: important intraday level on hourly chart.

Resistance:
88.25: broken trendline.
89.17: important intraday level on hourly chart.
89.70: important intraday level on hourly chart.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros. For real time Forex charts see Forexpros.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Dollar Rally Continue?

Dollar Rally Continue?

We went right to the point on Tuesday where resistance would kick in, 1.4770-1.4780, and it went right to 1.4780 but could not get above. This has set up a bearish formation on the short term charts. Unless that resistance area is taken out, and ultimately 1.4900, the eur/usd is in correction.

That of course does not mean there can't be a move higher...there can, and it may still fall short of 1.4900. Movement above 1.4780 is likely to target 1.4820, 1.4840 (both of these are minor resistance points) and if it continues then 1.4860. Movement above this point will run at the former swing highs at 1.4890-1.4900.

Short-term trend is down and first minor support comes in at 1.4720 with a drop below targeting 1.4700. No real confirmation of a further decline comes until the rate moves below 1.4660. This would target 1.4625 followed by 1.4600-1.4580. 1.4560 and 1.4530 provide support beyond if the pair continues to fall.

Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims due of the US at 13:30 GMT.

Forex trading analysis written by Cory Mitchell, CMT for Forexpros.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 14/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 14, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Trading Platforms- Why do they Matter?

Expert: Amy Walsh
When: Tue, Dec 15, 2009, 10:00 EST

This webinar takes a look at the UFX Bank trading platform with special emphasis on how to execute trades simply and immediately. After all a trader is only as good as the trading platform he's using.
Amy will discuss how UFX Bank's support and training resources will suit every client from the very beginner to the practiced professional.

Click here to join free.

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Fundamental Analysis: ZEW Economic Sentiment Report

German traders await publication of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Report, which will be released tomorrow (Dec 14).
The report determines sentiment among German institutional investors, with analysts expecting a slight increase from last month's 50.10 to 50.20.
The Economic Sentiment Report is a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro surpassed the resistance 1.4734 but stopped very close to Wednesdays high, before reversing, and breaking the support 1.4692, and then reaching the first suggested target 1.4610. The rising trendline from Tuesdays low (and the lower limit for the supposed triangle pattern) is currently very close to Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4701. This makes this double resistance the most important, and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook for the Euro. If broken, we will enter a correction for the whole drop from 1.5139, which will target 1.4796 at least, and probably 1.4826. As for the support it is at 1.4656 and breaking it would mean that the rising correction from Fridays low is probably over, and that would target 1.4597 and then 1.4510.

Support:
1.4656: rising trendline on the intraday charts.
1.4597: important intraday low from Friday.
1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.

Resistance:
1.4701: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the lower trendline in the supposed triangle formation that was broken on Friday.
1.4796: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139.
1.4826: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.05 and successfully reached the first target 89.45, then came close to 90, settling for 89.79. this morning the price dropped to 88.36 again, to find the trendline that we introduced in the past few days providing it with support. That was the 4th time the price encountered this line, which clearly means it deserves our attention. That is why we will consider it as support of the day, and it is currently running at 88.43. If its broken, the drop from 89.79 will continue and the next pair of targets will be Fibonacci support levels at 87.78 & 87.08. As for the resistance, it is provided by the falling trendline from 89.79 on the intraday charts, which is currently at 88.87. And if broken, another 89.45 visit will be expected, and if this is also broken, we will jump to 90.08 at least.

Support:
88.43: a trendline that touched price 4 times.
87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.

Resistance:
88.87: the falling trendline from Fridays top on the intraday charts.
89.45: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
90.08: hourly resistance.

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Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 15/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 15, 2009


Free webinar TODAY on Forexpros - Trading Platforms- Why do they Matter?

Expert: Amy Walsh
When: Tue, Dec 15, 2009, 10:00 EST

This webinar takes a look at the UFX Bank trading platform with special emphasis on how to execute trades simply and immediately. After all a trader is only as good as the trading platform he's using.
Amy will discuss how UFX Bank's support and training resources will suit every client from the very beginner to the practiced professional.

Click here to join free.

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Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tommorow (Dec 16) in the US.
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast that the interest rate will remain at 0.25%.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro surpassed the support 1.4656, and settled for 1.4616, but it did nopt test or even come close to the most important resistance 1.4701. The rising trend line from Tuesdays low (and the lower limit for the supposed triangle pattern) is currently very close to Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4701. This makes this double resistance the most important, and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook for the Euro. If broken, we will enter a correction for the whole drop from 1.5139, which will target 1.4796 at least, and probably 1.4862. As for the support it is at 1.4621 and breaking it would mean that the rising correction from Fridays low is probably over, and that would target 1.4566 and then 1.4510.

Support:
1.4621: intraday support from last week.
1.4597: a previous well known support/resistance area.
1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.

Resistance:
1.4701: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the lower trendline in the supposed triangle formation that was broken on Friday.
1.4796: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139.
1.4862: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen slightly pierced through both the support & resistance specified in yesterdays reports, with a few points in both cases, without being able to generate a real break. Currently we see USDJPY between two lines: the falling trend line from 90.75 (which is currently at 89.28), and the rising trend line from 84.81 (which is currently at 88.59). And since we have two descending tops at 90.75 & 89.79, and two ascending bottoms at 84.81 & 87.35 (which means lack of direction), it is recommended that we do not adopt any direction prior to a break, and it is wise to wait for one of them to break. If we break the support 88.59 , the drop coming from 89.79 will resume & the next set of targets would be Fibonacci support levels 87.78 & 87.08. As for the resistance 89.28, a new visit to areas above 90 would be expected, where the targets 90.08 & 90.90 will await.

Support:
88.59: the rising trend line from 84.81.
87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.

Resistance:
89.28: the falling trend line from 90.75 on the hourly chart.
90.08: hourly resistance.
90.90: previous well known support/resistance area.

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Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 16, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Market Turning Points With an Objective Set of Rules

Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Mon, Dec 21, 2009, 12:00 EST

The movement of price in the Forex markets is a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. During this session, we will cover the basic yet important rules for identifying market turning points based on a rule strategy that quantifies real supply and demand in the Forex markets.
This webinar is the first of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

Click here to join free.

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Commodities

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Stay on top of commodities prices with a new Free Real Time Streaming Commodities Futures Prices section.
The quotes are available for a variety of futures such as Gold, Crude Oil, Silver, Copper, Brent and many more.
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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support 1.4621 and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.4566 & 1.4510. And then spent the time holding above 1.45, and that could lead to a correction of the last 5 waves down from 1.4683. If short-term resistance 1.4563 is broken, 1.4614 would be an ideal target for this correction, and at the same time the most important resistance. Reaching it could provide a good sell opportunity. But, if its broken, the price will gain enough strength to target 1.4667. As for the support, it is provided by the rising trend line from yesterdays low on the intraday charts, which is currently at 1.4535. If broken, we will target the important 1.4445 (the next important stop), and then 1.4405.

Support:
1.4535: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
1.4445: Fibonacci 50% for the long-term (the rise from 1.3737 to 1.5143).
1.4505: Aug 27th high.

Resistance:
1.4563: intraday resistance.
1.4614: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the most important resistance.
1.4667: previous well known support/resistance area.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.28, and jumped close to the 90 level & the suggested target (yesterdays high 89.93). With this break, the Dollar has gained a technical advantage that should give it the strength to go on. But to keep this advantage, the price should hold above the broken trend line which is currently at 89.21. If it succeeds in doing this, the odds will favor more upside movement, that would break short-term resistance 89.72, and head to areas above yesterdays high, where the same suggested targets from yesterdays report (90.08 & 90.90) will await. But if the opposite to what is expected happened (if we break the support 89.21) the price will resume falling, targeting the rising trend line from 84.81 & the SMA100, and both of them at 88.83, and if this important support if broken, we will target 87.78.

Support:
89.21: the trend line that was broken yesterday.
88.83: the rising trend line from 84.81, and the SMA100.
87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.

Resistance:
89.72: short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance.
90.08: hourly resistance.
90.90: previous well known support/resistance area.

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Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 17, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Market Turning Points With an Objective Set of Rules

Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Mon, Dec 21, 2009, 12:00 EST

The movement of price in the Forex markets is a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. During this session, we will cover the basic yet important rules for identifying market turning points based on a rule strategy that quantifies real supply and demand in the Forex markets.
This webinar is the first of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

Click here to join free.

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Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index

The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts forecast a reading of 93.90, down from 94.50.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke both the support & resistance of yeserdays report, before choosing the downward road reaching both suggested targets 1.4445 & 1.4405. With that, the long-term Fibonacci 50% support (1.4445) was broken, and we expect to see Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4280, and we might see it before the weekend. Short-term resistance is at 1.4452, and breaking it is the key to reach and test the most important resistance for short-term 1.4504. The importance of this resistance comes from being Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and staying below it, would indicate that the rising move from yesterdays low is just a short-term correction, while breaking it would means it is bigger than that, and would target 1.4574 as a first stop on the road to higher targets. Short-term support is at 1.4405 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 1.4354 first, and then the important 1.4280.

Support:
1.4405: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
1.4354: Aug 27th low.
1.4445: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long-term (the rise from 1.3737 to 1.5143).

Resistance:
1.4452: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
1.4504: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the most important resistance.
1.4574: intraday resistance from yesterday.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.72 and reached the first target 90.08 successfully. This continuation in rising was a result of breaking the falling trend line from 90.75. With this break, the Dollar has gained a technical advantage that should give it the strength to go on. But to keep this advantage, the price should hold above the broken trend line which is currently at 89.13. And before that, we have the short-term support at 89.87, breaking it is the key to a retest of the broken line, targeting 89.13, and if this one is broken we could see a sharp drop to the important Fibonacci support 87.87. On theother hand, the resistance 90.40 is resistance of the day, and breaking it will indicate ability to continue going up, targeting the well known 90.90 first, and then November 4th top 91.31.

Support:
89.87: short-term support.
89.13: the retest level of the broken trend line.
87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
ou
Resistance:
90.40: previous well known support/resistance area.
90.90: previous well known support/resistance area.
91.31: Nov 4th top.

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Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[aditya14]

Re: Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 17, 2009



[/i]

Now i have 1 question on Forex markets.I just tried on a demo account on MT4 with 3000 deposit and made 300 in 15 mins.

My question is that is it always this volatile? Because a lot of times in stocks what happens is that we go through this lean phase when nothing happens.I found that the Forex was like a realty stock chart on adrenaline/caffeine.

And is it worth getting into? I traded EUR/USD btw

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 21, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros TODAY - Identifying Market Turning Points With an Objective Set of Rules

Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Mon, Dec 21, 2009, 12:00 EST

The movement of price in the Forex markets is a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is out of balance. During this session, we will cover the basic yet important rules for identifying market turning points based on a rule strategy that quantifies real supply and demand in the Forex markets.
This webinar is the first of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

Click here to join free.

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Fundamental Analysis: GDP

Tomorrow, Dec 22, the Gross Domestic Product will be published in the UK, USA and New Zealand.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the currency.
Analysts forecast a reading of -0.30% for the GDP, up from -0.10% and a reading of 2.80% for the USD, representing no change. The NZD is expected to read 0.10%, down from 0.40%.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support specified in Fridays report 1.4346, and successfully reached the first target 1.4280. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4410 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Fridays low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4303 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4205 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4140. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and may be later to 1.4584.

Support:
1.4303: Thursdays low.
1.4205: Aug 26th low.
1.4140: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart.

Resistance:
1.4410: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100.
1.4502: Dec 15th low.
1.4584: Dec 11th low.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen broke the specified resistance in Fridays report 89.80, and successfully reached both targets 90.40 & 90.90 with amazing accuracy (Fridays high 90.89). We see that the drop that followed to 90.22 is just a short-term correction, and that the advance will carry on after we are done with it to areas above 90.90. We build this opinion on our wave count for the short-term which shows that we are in wave 4 of 5 rising waves that started at 88.91 on Thursday. If our wave count turns out to be right, we will not break the support 89.86, the price will start rising breaking short-term resistance 90.46, and targeting 91.30 first, and may be 91.93 afterwards. If a surprise happens and we break 89.86 the suggested wave count will be invalid, and the price will drop targeting the rising trend line from 85.84 which is currently at 89.17, and may be 88.70.

Support:
89.86: Fibonacci 61.8% for wave 3 according to our short-term wave count.
89.17: the rising trend line from 85.84.
88.70: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.89.

Resistance:
90.46: the falling trend line from Fridays top on intraday charts.
91.30: Nov 4th high.
91.93: Sep 3rd low.

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Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for more Forex Quotes.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.