Forexpros Daily Analysis

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 22/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 22, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II

Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST

In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.

Click here to join free.

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Fundamental Analysis: Monetary Policy Committee

The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes will be published tomorrow (Dec 23). The minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier.
It gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK.
It also records the votes of the individual members of the Committee
If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.4303, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, and settled for closing on Fridays low 1.4260, as yesterdays low was 1.4264. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4357 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Fridays low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4260 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4176 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4085. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4357 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and may be later to 1.4596.

Support:
1.4260: Fridays low.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.
1.4085: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart.

Resistance:
1.4357: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100.
1.4502: Dec 15th low.
1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4260.

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USD/JPY

Exactly as we have expected, the drop to 90.22 was just a short-term corrective drop, and the price resumed rising short after, to areas above 90.90 as we said in yesterdays report. Dollar-Yen broke the specified resistance in yesterdays report 90.46 and successfully reached the first suggested target 91.30. But, has trouble started for this rising move? We can see on the attached chart that the price hardly reached any area above the moving average SMA100, and stopped close to the trend line. Thus, we expect the Dollar to settle for the previously harvested gains, and to start going down from the current levels. Short-term resistance is 91.30, and breaking it would target 91.93 first, and then the important 92.31. But what is expected is the opposite of that: the resistance should hold, and the price should start dropping toward short-term support 90.99, and if we break it we will head towards 90.32 and then 89.50.

Support:
90.99: intraday support.
90.32: previous important intraday top.
89.50: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.46.

Resistance:
91.30: Nov 4th high.
91.93: Sep 3rd low.
92.31: Oct 27th high.

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Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex charts and other trading tools.

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 23, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II

Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST

In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.

Click here to join free.

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Fundamental Analysis: Core Durable Goods Orders

Traders await the announcement of the Core Durable Goods Orders tomorrow (Dec. 24).
The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast a reading of 1.00%, up from the previous reading of -1.30%.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays report 1.4260, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, as yesterdays low was 1.4216. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4298 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Fridays low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4153 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4030. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4298 would cause a jump to 1.4446, and then to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.

Support:
1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term.
1.4153: Jul 2nd high.
1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low.

Resistance:
1.4298: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100.
1.4446: Aug 5th high.
1.4502: Dec 15th low.

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USD/JPY

In opposition to our expectations, Dollar-Yen broke 91.30, penetrating through the moving average SMA100, and breaking the top of the channel that we introduced. This break, even though it is in an opposite direction of our short-term technical outlook, should not be ignored. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the moving average SMA100 is waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55.

Support:
90.90: intraday support.
90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
89.55: previous important intraday low.

Resistance:
91.78: Jul 8th low.
92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
93.53: Mar 19h low.

---

Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex education and trading tools.

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 24/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 24, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II

Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST

In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.

Click here to join free.

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A New Real Time Interest Rates and Bonds Section

Want to know what is happening now with Bonds around the globe?
Stay on top of Interest Rates and Bonds with a new Free Real Time Streaming Financial Futures Rates section.
The quotes are available for U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds and government bonds from the U.K., Germany, Japan and Australia.
They are all organized in a user friendly layout in a real time streamer.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.4298, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, as the high in the past 24 hours was 1.4365, a few pips below short term resistance 1.4371. This morning the price came back close to this resistance that we consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending channel. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it is not expected after the radical change in the technical outlook that happened after breaking 1.4298. But if it happens it would target 1.4153 and then 1.4030. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4371 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.

Support:
1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term.
1.4153: Jul 2nd high.
1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low.

Resistance:
1.4371: Mondays high, and the resistance that the price tried to break twice in the past 24 hours.
1.4502: Dec 15th low.
1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260).

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USD/JPY

Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 91.06 where the moving average SMA100 & the retest level for the broken channel are waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55.

Support:
91.06: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart, and the retest level for the broken channel.
90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
89.55: previous important intraday low.

Resistance:
91.78: Jul 8th low.
92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
93.53: Mar 19h low.

---

Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex software and trading tools.

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[sagard21]

Re: Forexpros Daily Analysis - 24/12/2009

Hello,

Wish you a merry Xmas. if i may, then i would like to contribute to what you had written. i'd like to add my comments on USDJPY pair. dollar is rising and will now have a short retracement for a while and will move up again. while japan's trade surplus has reduces and is about to see a deficit soon, the japanese govt will put in efforts to straighten that as japan's economy relies highly on its exports. hence the downfall of yen is very much possible and USDJPY may see a long direction starting 8th Jan - the release of unemployment and non farm payrolls report which is expected to get better.

so lets wait and watch.

Regards
Sagar Dawda

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 28/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 28, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros tomorrow - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II

Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST

In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.

Click here to join free.

---

Fundamental Analysis: CB Consumer Confidence

The CB Consumer Confidence report will be published tomorrow (Dec 29).
The Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a reading of 49.50, down from the previous 53.00.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the resistance specified in Thursdays report 1.4371, but settled for a test of the resistance 1.4410 (Thursdays high was 1.4416). The technical outlook is still gaining positivity after breaking the falling channel that we talked about all last week, but failure at 1.4410 might be the first signal indicating a new wave of weakness. And since it is an important resistance, we will consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending channel. Short-term support is Thursdays resistance 1.4371, and if this important level is broken, this pair would target the important 1.4292 (important for short term and may be medium term as well), and then 1.4233. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.

Support:
1.4371: Thursdays resistance that became todays short term support.
1.4292: Fibonacci 61.8% short term and it is close to the rising trend line from last weeks low on intraday charts.
1.4233: important intraday support from last week.

Resistance:
1.4410: previous well known resistance, price stopped near it on Thursday.
1.4502: Dec 15th low.
1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260).

---

USD/JPY

Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the retest level for the broken channel is waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55.

Support:
90.90: the retest level for the broken channel.
90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
89.55: previous important intraday low.

Resistance:
91.78: Jul 8th low.
92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
93.53: Mar 19h low.

---

Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for information on Central Banks and trading tools.

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 29, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros TODAY - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II

Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Dec 29, 2009, 11:00 EST

In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.

Click here to join free.

---

Fundamental Analysis: KOF Leading Indicators

Traders of CHF await the publication of the KOF Leading Indicators tomorrow (Dec 30).
The KoF Leading Indicators Index determines overall economic health by combining 12 indicators related to consumer confidence, banking confidence, production, new orders and housing.
It indicates the economic trend and the movement of GDP growth in Switzerland.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
Analysts predict a reading of 1.62, down from the previous 1.80.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro came back to test the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.4410 for the second time, after testing it previously on Thursday. But it stopped accurately at this level (yesterdays high was 1.4412). The technical outlook is still gaining positivity after breaking the falling channel that we talked about all last week, but failure at 1.4410 might be the first signal indicating a new wave of weakness. And since it is an important resistance, we will consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending channel. Short-term support is Thursdays resistance 1.4371, and if this important level is broken, this pair would target the important 1.4292 (important for short term and may be medium term as well), and then 1.4233. A break of todays most important resistance 1.4410 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.

Support:
1.4371: Thursdays resistance that became todays short term support.
1.4292: Fibonacci 61.8% short term and it is close to the rising trend line from last weeks low on intraday charts.
1.4233: important intraday support from last week.

Resistance:
1.4410: previous well known resistance, price stopped near it twice on Thursday, and then again yesterday.
1.4502: Dec 15th low.
1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260).

---

USD/JPY

Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (the high until the moment of preparing the report is 91.76), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55.

Support:
90.90: the rising trend line from 84.81.
90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
89.55: previous important intraday low.

Resistance:
91.78: Jul 8th low.
92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
93.53: Mar 19h low.

---

Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex fund managers and trading tools.

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 30/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 30, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders.

Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST

During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

Click here to join free.

---

Fundamental Analysis: Chicago PMI

The Chicago PMI will be published tomorrow (Dec 31).
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region.
Any reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the US ISM and usually has an impressive correlation with it.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a reading of 56.10, up from the previous 55.20.

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Euro Dollar

Although it surpassed 1.4410, the Euro was unable to maintain its gains, and gave them up, returning to 1.43, where there is a critical support at 1.4308. The price reached 1.4304 before bouncing more than 50 pips until this moment. The importance of 1.4308 is that it is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 1.4216 to yesterdays top at 1.4456, and breaking it would mean that the price will come back to test the falling channel that was broken last week (which is currently below 1.41) at a later time. But the targets for the upcoming hours for this break will be 1.4233 & 1.4176. Short-term resistance is at 1.4380, and breaking it would mean that the technical outlook for the short-term would be positive and the targets for this break would be 1.4480 & 1.4536.

Support:
1.4308: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4216 to 1.4456.
1.4233: important intraday support from last week.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.

Resistance:
1.4380: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term & a well known previous resistance.
1.4480: Oct 2nd low.
1.4536: a well known previous support/resistance area.

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USD/JPY

Finally, the Dollar-Yen is trading above 91.78! As it reached 92 this morning, and stopped at 92.24. Thus, we think that a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 is only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53, with a possibility to stop at 93.08, where there is a resistance that cannot be ignored. On the other hand, if the price fails to capitalize on the break of 91.78, a drop towards 91.12 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.18, and if broken we are to see 89.55.

Support:
91.12: the rising trend line from 84.81.
90.18: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 92.24.
89.55: previous important intraday low.

Resistance:
92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
93.08: Jul 22nd low.
93.53: Mar 19h low.

---

Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex software and trading tools.

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 31/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 31, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders.

Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST

During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

Click here to join free.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro fluctuated, breaking 1.4308 first, then breaking 1.4380 and flying above 1.44. And as we can see, the price is currently trading inside a falling channel on the hourly chart, with the top of the channel at 1.4449. Thus, we will consider this level as resistance of the day. If broken, we will see 1.45 since the targets for such a break are 1.4502 first, and then the first Fibonacci retracement level for medium-term (38.2%) at 1.4596. To keep a positive outlook for the short-term, it is preferred that we dont break the support 1.4391, holding above it would improve the chances for more upside movement. But if it is broken, we expect the price to drop to 1.4330 first, and then test the support area that was obvious during the second half of this month 1.4264.

Support:
1.4391: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4330: important intraday support from Tuesday.
1.4264: Dec 21st low.

Resistance:
1.4449: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart.
1.4502: Oct 2nd low.
1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term.

---

USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen broke the resistance area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trend line from yesterdays high, currently at 92.50. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53, with a possibility to stop at 93.08, where there is a resistance that cannot be ignored. On the other hand, if the price fails to capitalize on the break of 92.31-92.52, a drop towards 91.30 where the rising trend line from 84.81, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.30, the most important support for the time being.

Support:
91.85: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart.
91.30: the rising trend line from 84.81.
90.38: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 92.24.

Resistance:
92.50: the falling trend line from yesterdays high.
93.08: Jul 22nd low.
93.53: Mar 19h low.

---

Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World Indices charts and other trading tools.

---

Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 04/01/2010

Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 4, 2010


Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High
Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders.

Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST

During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to
the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will
walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based
strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of
balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant
risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by
Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

Click here to join free.

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Fundamental Analysis: German Unemployment Change

The EUR will be affected by the publication of the German Unemployment Change tomorrow (Jan 5).
The German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise trend indicates weakness in the labor market and has a negative affect on consumer spending and therefore on the economic growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
Analysts predict a reading of 7.00K, up from the previous 6.00K.

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Euro Dollar

As we have expected, the Euro tested the important 1.4449, stopping 10 pips below it, and started a drop that broke the support specified in Thursdays report 1.4391, and reached both suggested targets 1.4330 & 1.4264 successfully. Stopping only 8 pips below 1.4264 before bouncing back to 1.43 assures its importance, and we will consider it support of the day, and the borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4439, or a bounce to the upside. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop on the first trading day of the New Year towards 1.4176 & 1.4103. But if it holds, a test of short term resistance 1.4308 will follow, and breaking it would lead to a correction of Thursdays big fall, ideally targeting 1.4369, and if broken we will jump to 1.4424-1.4456, a resistance area that is full of short term resistance levels.

Support:
1.4264: Dec 21st low.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.
1.4103: Aug 10th low.

Resistance:
1.4308: intraday top.
1.4369: short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
1.4424-1.4456: a resistance area that is full of important levels for short term.

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USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in the last report of last year 92.50, and successfully reached the suggested target 93.08 with astonishing accuracy (Thursdays high was 93.09). Short-term resistance is provided by this level. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53 and then 94.05. This uptrend is protected by the rising trend line from 84.81 which is currently at 91.54 and the SMA100 as well. On the other hand, if the price fails to break of 93.08, a drop towards short-term support 92.35 will follow. And if broken, we will target 91.54 where there is the rising trend line from 84.81. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.51, the most important support for the time being.

Support:
92.35: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
91.54: the rising trend line from 84.81.
90.51: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.09.

Resistance:
93.08: Thursdays high.
93.53: Mar 19h low.
94.05: Aug 28th low.

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Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Stock charts and other trading tools.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all
investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.
You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market
data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

[forexpros2]

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/01/2010

Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 5, 2009


Free webinar on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders.

Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST

During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant
risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.

Click here to join free.

---

Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Traders of the USD await the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes tomorrow (Jan 6).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so Currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts.

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Euro Dollar

The support 1.4264 survived yesterday, causing the Euro to rise. It broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.4308, and reached both targets 1.4369 & the 1.4424-1.4457 successfully. But with this rise, we got closer to an important resistance, provided by the rising trend line from 1.4410, which is illustrated on the attached chart, and is currently at 1.4485. This line could provide a chance to reverse the short term direction after yesterdays rise. So, 1.4485 will be resistance of the day, and breaking it would indicate a continuation in the uptrend with the next set of targets at 1.4569 & 1.4678, the first & second main Fibonacci retracement levels for the medium term (The 38.2% & 50%). But, if 1.4485 could reverse the direction, the price will drop to the support at 1.4454, and if broken a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4256 will be initiated, which will ideally target 1.4369, and may be later 1.4303.

Support:
1.4454: support level on the hourly chart.
1.4369: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4256.
1.4303: support level on the hourly chart.

Resistance:
1.4485: the rising trend line from 1.4410 on the hourly chart.
1.4569: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4216.
1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.5139 to 1.4216.

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USD/JPY

At the moment of preparing this report, the Dollar-Yen is approaching 91.60, the rising trend line from 84.81. This point could be critical not just for the short term but for the medium term as well, since breaking it would indicate the termination of the rising trend line from 84.81, which will have a huge effect on the technical outlook for the medium term. If this line is broken, we will fall to the important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term, and maybe we will see 89.58 after that. On the other hand, if the line survives this test, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at 91.97, and breaking this level would lead to a correction to the drop from 93.20 (and may be to more than that), targeting the important 92.59, and once its broken we will be looking forward to the long awaited 93.53.

Support:
91.60: the rising trend line from 84.81.
90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20.
89.58: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 87.35 to 93.20.

Resistance:
91.97: intraday resistance.
92.59: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
93.53: Mar 19h low.

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Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex quotes and other trading tools.

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Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.