Free webinar on ForexPros - The Effects of Forex on the Stock and Commodities Market
Expert: Jeffrey Baskin
When: Thursday, Jan 28, 2010, 11:00 EST
In this webinar, we will discuss the Forex market and how it impacts the Stock and Commodities market. In addition to the pricing correlations and how you can find Forex trading opportunities using the synergy of all three markets.
Fundamental Analysis: US Core Durable Goods Orders
Traders look forward to the publication of the Core Durable Goods Orders tomorrow (January 28). It measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. The previous reading was at 2.00% which analysts predict will decline to 0.40%.
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Euro Dollar
As we get closer and closer to 1.4014, with reaching 1.4040 yesterday, 1.4014 will stay at the center of our focus for another day . The Euro kept a bottom at 1.4027, which is very close to the most important support at the moment 1.4014. While the rising attempts stopped just shy of the falling trend line from 1.4554. Todays resistance is at this trend line in specific which runs currently at 1.4116. As for the support we will put all our attention at 1.4014 and not any level before it. Breaking resistance of the day would initiate a strong rise targeting Fibonacci levels at 1.4237 & 1.4302. But if the all important support 1.4014 is broken, the strong & sharp drop from 1.4577 that has gained 550 pips until this moment will carry on, strongly, and will target 1.3928 & 1.3857. We have a very interesting day ahead of us, lets enjoy it.
Support:
1.4014: Fibonacci 50% for the long term (for the rise from 1.2885 to 1.5143).
1.3928: Jul 15th low.
1.3857: May 26th low.
Resistance:
1.4116: the falling trend line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart.
1.4237: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
1.4302: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen penetrated the important 89.79 once again, but this time, we had a close below it, and reached 89.12. The importance of 89.79 comes from the fact that it is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.37 to 93.75. And with breaking it, any bias towards the Dollar has lost its best advocate! But on the other hand, we noticed a trend line that deserves attention, and has provided support 4 times in the past. Price has touched and slightly went below this line in the past few hours. If this line is to provide support, 89.12 must not be broken. In this case we will witness attest of the resistance 89.69, and if broken then the price would have found support around the above mentioned trend line and started rising again, targeting 90.30 & the most important resistance for now 90.90. The other scenario is to break 89.12, in this case the price will continue to capitalize on the break of 89.79 and will head on to 88.30 & 87.72.
Support:
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
88.91: Dec 18th low.
88.30: Dec 14th low
Resistance:
90.30: previous important support.
91.06: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.64: the falling trend line from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - The Effects of Forex on the Stock and Commodities Market
Expert: Jeffrey Baskin
When: Today, Jan 28, 2010, 11:00 EST
In this webinar, we will discuss the Forex market and how it impacts the Stock and Commodities market. In addition to the pricing correlations and how you can find Forex trading opportunities using the synergy of all three markets.
Traders anticipate the publication of the the Gross Domestic Product measure tomorrow (January 29). The GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health.
The Annualized (quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
Consumption is by far the largest component in the GDP of the US and has the most affect on it.
The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 4.50% versus a past lower reading of 2.20%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke 1.4014, and dropped as expected, stopping only 8 pips before our suggested target 1.3928. But the sharp n swift bounce that brought us back above 1.40 may threaten this break, so will it hold? Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the Euro, and before breaking 1.4014, has stopped at the falling trend line from 1.4554 for a third time, which makes this line one that deserves attention. The downtrend from 1.4577 will be dominant as long as we are below this line, which is currently at 1.4065, thats why it is resistance of the day. While the support is at 1.3969, and breaking either of these levels will set the direction for the next hours. Breaking resistance 1.4065 will initiate a correction for the whole drop from 1.4577, with ideal targets at 1.4181 & 1.4257. On the other hand, breaking support at 1.3969 means that we will leave the 1.39 areas after a swift visit and head toward the 1.38s where 1.3888 & the important 1.3824 awaits.
Support:
1.4014: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3888: Jun 24th & 25th low.
1.3857: Dec 19th 2008 important low.
Resistance:
1.4065: the falling trend line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart.
1.4181: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
1.4257: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
---
USD/JPY
As it is expected, the trend line that deserves attention has successfully managed to present support once again, giving the Dollar-Yen a chance to hold above support 89.12, breaking resistance 89.69, and successfully reaching the first suggested target 90.30. This fine bounce may manage to test the most important resistance for now 90.71, which is provided by the falling trend line from 93.75. If the Dollar is meant to achieve more gains from this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break support at 89.98. And between 90.71 & 89.98, we will await a break of either of them to set the direction for the short term. If wettest the falling trend line and break the resistance 90.71, the price will already be in a correction for the whole drop from 93.75, with ideal targets at 91.44 & 91.98. In case of a break of the support 89.98, we will target going back to the same trend line that provided yesterdays support, which is currently at 89.05, and if broken 88.30.
Support:
89.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
89.05: the support of the falling trend line from 90.58.
88.30: Dec 14th low
Resistance:
90.71 the falling trend line from 93.75, the most important resistance currently.
91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders.
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Feb 4, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading.
This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.
Traders of the UK await the publication of the Halifax House Price Index.
Change in the house and property prices financed by Halifax Bank Of Scotland (HBOS), one of the largest UK mortgage lender. This report helps to analyze the strength of the UK housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts predict a reading of 0.90%, down from the previous 1.00%.
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Euro Dollar
Fridays report shined as the price stopped only 6 pips before the resistance specified in the report, and then started falling, breaking the support 1.3936 and successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.3888. But we have not tested the important 1.3824. Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the Euro, and before breaking 1.4014 last week, has stopped at the falling trend line from 1.4554 for a third time, which makes this line one that deserves attention. The downtrend from 1.4577 will be dominant as long as we are below this line, which is currently at 1.3959, thats why this will be resistance of the day. While the support is at short term Fibonacci 1.3867, and breaking either of these levels will set the direction for today. Breaking resistance 1.3959 will initiate a correction for the whole drop from 1.4577, targeting 1.4068 first, then ideal targets start at 1.4139. On the other hand, breaking support at 1.3867 means that we will test the important 1.3824, and if broken, targets starts at 1.3747.
Support:
1.3867: short term 61.8% Fibonacci support.
1.3824: Dec 19th 2008 important low.
1.3747: Jun 16th low.
Resistance:
1.3959: the falling trend line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart.
1.4068: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4192.
1.4139: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in Fridays report 90.41, but stopped in the middle of the road to the suggested target, at 90.90. This indicates that the bounce we talked about still has the momentum needed to go on. This fine bounce may manage to capitalize on the break of 90.41 to go higher. If the Dollar is meant to achieve more gains from this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break support at 89.94. And between 90.36 & 89.94, we will await a break of either of them to set the direction for the short term. If we test the falling trend line and break the resistance 90.36, the price will already be in a correction for the whole drop from 93.75, with ideal targets at 91.44 & 91.98. In case of a break of the support 89.94, we will target 89.12, and if broken we will be going back to the same trend line that provided last weeks support, which is currently at 88.60.
Support:
89.94: the rising trend line from Wednesdays low.
89.12: Jan 27th low.
88.30: the support of the falling trend line from 90.58.
Resistance:
90.36: important intraday top.
91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders.
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Feb 4, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading.
This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.
Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Traders of the US await the publication of the ADP National Employment Report. The report measures the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data , is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of -40.00%, up from the previous -84.00%.
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Euro Dollar
After the issuance of the last report, the Euro did not break any of the levels specified in the report. Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the Euro, and before breaking 1.4014 last week, has stopped at the falling trend line from 1.4554 for a third time, which makes this line one that deserves attention. And now, we have yet another reason to pay attention to this line, which is the forth touch. The downtrend from 1.4577 will be dominant as long as we are below this line, which is currently at 1.3933, thats why this will be resistance of the day. While the support is at short term Fibonacci 1.3885, and breaking either of these levels will set the direction for today. Breaking resistance 1.3933 will initiate a correction for the whole drop from 1.4577, targeting 1.4062 first, then ideal targets start at 1.4128. On the other hand, breaking support at 1.3885 means that we will test the important 1.3824, and if broken, targets start at 1.3747.
Support:
1.3885: important intraday low.
1.3824: Dec 19th 2008 important low.
1.3747: Jun 16th low.
Resistance:
1.3933: the falling trend line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart.
1.4062: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4192.
1.4128: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 90.36, but stopped in the middle of the road to the suggested target, at 90.92. This indicates that the bounce we talked about still has the momentum needed to go on. This fine bounce may manage to capitalize on the break of 90.36 to go higher. If the Dollar is meant to achieve more gains from this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break support at 90.30. And between 90.89 & 90.30, we will await a break of either of them to set the direction for the short term. If we break the resistance 90.89, the price will already be in a correction for the whole drop from 93.75, with ideal targets at 91.44 & 91.98. In case of a break of the support 90.30, we will target 89.57 and if broken we will be going back to the same trend line that provided last weeks support, which is currently at 88.48.
Support:
90.30: the rising trend line from 89.20 on the hourly chart.
89.57: Jan 29th low.
88.48: the support of the falling trend line from 90.58.
Resistance:
90.89: important intraday top.
91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
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Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities for Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders.
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Feb 4, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading.
This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.
Canadian traders anticipate the publication of the Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) tomorrow, February 4. The index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in Canada.
Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. It gives an indication about the health of the manufacturing section and production growth in Canada.
Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their companys performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of 52.00 versus a past lower reading of 48.40.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.3933, and although the rising move did not reach 50 pips, but closing above it indicates that this is a valid break, and makes us believe that the short term down trend is over. This break faces a difficult resistance at Mondays top 1.3985, and if this break is serious, we should see a break for this resistance specifically. Breaking resistance 1.3985 will initiate a correction for the whole drop from 1.4577, targeting 1.4062 first, then ideal targets start at 1.4128. On the other hand, support is provided by the rising trend line from Mondays bottom 1.3851, which is currently at 1.3930. Breaking this support means that we will test the important 1.3824, and if broken, targets start at 1.3747.
Support:
1.3930: the rising trend line from this weeks low on intraday charts.
1.3851: this weeks low so far.
1.3747: Jun 16th low.
Resistance:
1.3985: Jan 29th high.
1.4062: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4192.
1.4128: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen traded in a very tight range, without breaking support or resistance from the report, and we are still watching this bounce, which started to lose momentum. This fine bounce may manage to capitalize on the break of 90.36 to go higher, going through the resistance 90.79. If the Dollar is meant to achieve more gains from this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break support at 90.34 where the SMA100 moving average is. And between 90.79 & 90.34, we will await a break of either of them to set the direction for the short term. If we break the resistance 90.79, the price will already be in a correction for the whole drop from 93.75, with ideal targets at 91.44 & 91.98. In case of a break of the support 90.34, we will target 89.57 and if broken we will be going back to the same trend line that provided last weeks support, which is currently at 88.48.
Support:
90.34: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart.
89.57: Jan 29th low.
88.48: the support of the falling trend line from 90.58.
Resistance:
90.79: important intraday top.
91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities for Swing and Longer Term Forex Traders.
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Today, Feb 4, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of swing and longer term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities for Forex swing and position trading.
This webinar is the last of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the unemployment rate tomorrow, February 5. It measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD. Analysts predict no change in the future reading, a rate of 10.00%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro stopped accurately at Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the drop from 1.4192, which is at 1.4022 (yesterdays high was 1.4025), before a downfall toppled it more than 150 pips in 16 hours. As we always say, an accurate stop at an important Fibonacci level (i.e. the 50% or the 61.8%) is an indication of reversal. And in this case it indicates a reversal in short term trend from an uptrend to a downtrend. Thus, we find that analysis supporting more drop and drifting away from yesterdays top, and looking for new targets below this weeks low 1.3851. Short term support is at 1.3865, and breaking it would mean we are heading to test the important 1.3824, and in case it is broken 1.3747 will be an immediate first modest target, and we expect bigger targets on the short term. While the resistance is at 1.3963, and only breaking this important level would let us dump our negative outlook for the short term. In case this break actually happens, the targets will be the same as they were yesterday 1.4062 & 1.4128.
Support:
1.3865: Asian session low.
1.3824: Dec 19th 2008 low.
1.3747: Jun 16th low.
Resistance:
1.3963: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.4062: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4192.
1.4128: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
---
USD/JPY
Before reaching 90, the Dollar-Yen found support at 90.06, and created an uprising that took it to 91 for the first time in two weeks. This move is still inside the adjusted rising channel on the hourly chart. It is a slowly rising channel, with its top close to the resistance 91.63, and its bottom is close to the support 90.30. If the price holds inside this channel, we expect the slow rise to continue towards the important short term Fibonacci resistance levels. Todays support is at 90.52, and breaking it means that the odds of breaking the bottom of the channel are huge. Such a break would target the important 89.79, and then 88.91. In case trading inside this channel continues, this gradual rising will target a test of the nearby resistance 91.03 once again, and if broken the targets would be short term Fibonacci levels, where the 50% retracement is at 91.44 & the 61.8% is at 91.98, and would play as first and second targets for this break, in case it happens.
Support:
90.52: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
89.79: Jan 21st low.
88.91: Dec 17th low.
Resistance:
91.03: important intraday top.
91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
European traders look forward to the publication of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow, February 9. The index measures the changes in the price of goods and services.
The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Germany. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict no change in the future reading, a rate of -0.60%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro came very close to the 4-hour channel on Friday, after breaking the support specified in the report, and the drop stopped only 2 pips before the first suggested target 1.3852. With this move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present, but we need a break of 1.3666 before we can say the odds favor that. Short-term resistance is at 1.3666, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be 1.3752 & 1.3805. While the support is at 1.3620, and breaking it would bring back Fridays target under the spotlight: 1.3582 & 1.3516.
Support:
1.3620: the falling trend line drawn from Jan 21st bottom (1.4027) on the hourly chart.
1.3582: Apr 6th high.
1.3516: Apr 2nd high.
Resistance:
1.3666: short term resistance.
1.3752: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
---
USD/JPY
The Pound dropped in a free fall after breaking the support specified in Fridays report 1.5690, and reached the target 1.5614 successfully. This morning, a new bottom was reached at 1.5532. It seems that this sharp trend is not tired yet, especially after breaking the falling trend channel to the downside, which contributed to this sharp drop. Thus, we will maintain a negative outlook, as long as the price is trading below the bottom of the channel which is at 1.5704 currently. And even though the price is far from this level at the moment, we will consider this to be resistance of the day, and only if it is broken that we will change our long held negative outlook. If this surprise happens, and we break 1.5704 we will target short term Fibonacci retracement levels 1.5800 & 1.5862. As for the support it is at the nearby 1.5543, and breaking it would indicate that this Dollar tornado will not stop soon, targeting 1.5445 & the important 1.5350.
Support:
1.5543: intraday support.
1.5614: Nov 28th 2008 high.
1.5512: May 12th high.
Resistance:
1.5704 the bottom of the falling broken trend channel.
1.5800: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.6067.
1.3863: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.6067.
---
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
US traders look forward to Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman, who will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro kept trading above the support 1.3620, and started to rise, breaking the resistance 1.3666, and reaching 1.3728 until this moment without reaching the target 1.3752. As we said yesterday, with Fridays move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present, but we need a break of 1.3745 before we can say the odds favor that. Short-term resistance is at 1.3745, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be 1.3805 & 1.3857. While the support is at 1.3666, and breaking it would bring back Fridays target under the spotlight: 1.3582 & 1.3516.
Support:
1.3666: the rising trend line from 1.3584 on intraday charts.
1.3582: Apr 6th high.
1.3516: Apr 2nd high.
Resistance:
1.3745: important intraday resistance.
1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-yen did not break any of the important levels specified in yesterdays report, and kept trading in a relatively tight range without any major moves that have any influence on the technical outlook, leaving the technical outlook hardly changed. What is worth mentioning is that we are getting closer to long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23 (Thursdays low 88.53), and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.23, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, and if broken the first target would be 87.35. Short term resistance is at 89.87, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting yesterdays drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76.
Support:
89.23: the rising trend line from Thursdays low on intraday charts.
88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
87.35: Dec 9th low.
Resistance:
89.87: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
The traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow, January 11. The claims are a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a slight decline from the past reading to a reading of 460.00k.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke yesterdays resistance 1.3745, and successfully reached the first target 1.3805, which enhances our assumption of having a corrective rebound. As we said yesterday, with Fridays move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present. But we need a break of todays resistance 1.3805 before we can say the odds favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is at 1.3805, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857 & 1.3936. While the support is at 1.3743, and breaking it would bring back the drop, targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582.
Support:
1.3743: the rising trend line from 1.3584 on intraday charts.
1.3666: a well known previous support/resistance area.
1.3582: Apr 6th high.
Resistance:
1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3936: Feb 1st high.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-yen did not break any of the important levels specified in yesterdays report, although it tried to break 89.87 more than once, and kept trading in a relatively tight range without any major moves that have any influence on the technical outlook, leaving the technical outlook hardly changed. What is worth mentioning is that we are getting closer to long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23 (Thursdays low 88.53), and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.51, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around 88.81 even if temporary. Short term resistance is still at 89.87, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting yesterdays drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76.
Support:
89.51: the rising trend line from Thursdays low on intraday charts.
88.81: Fridays low.
88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
89.87: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Core Retail Sales tomorrow, January 12. The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 0.40%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro stopped only 6 pips above the resistance specified in yesterdays report, and this confirms the importance of 1.3805. Today, this level has double importance, with the falling trend line from 1.4577 touching the above mentioned Fibonacci level. As we said yesterday, with Fridays move taking us close to the channel bottom, and then a fast bounce reaching 1.3666, the odds of an upside correction remains present. But we need a break of todays resistance 1.3805 before we can say the odds favor a continuation of this rebound. Short-term resistance is still at 1.3805, and breaking it would indicate that the price is already moving higher after the drop we witnessed last week, even if that was only for a short term correction. The targets for such a correction would be the important 1.3857 & 1.3936. While the support is at 1.3752, and breaking it would bring back the drop, targeting 1.3665 & 1.3582.
Support:
1.3752: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term..
1.3665: a well known previous support/resistance area.
1.3582: Apr 6th high.
Resistance:
1.3805: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025, and the falling trend line from 1.4577.
1.3857: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3936: Feb 1st high.
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USD/JPY
After last Thursdays sharp drop, we can say that the Dollar-Yen has moved horizontally in the same areas for a whole week, in a period of excitement-free trading. And as the important support & resistance levels for the short term approaching each other, expecting a large move to be just around the corner is a completely logical thing. What is worth mentioning is that during last Thursdays drop, we have came close to the long term Fibonacci 61.8% support at 88.23, and there is no doubt that this level is the most important support in these areas. As for the short term, the support is at 89.75, and breaking it would indicate a movement to test the most important support 88.23, with a possibility to stop around 88.81 even if temporary. Short term resistance is little changed at 90.04, and breaking it would indicate that the Yen has settled for closing on 88.23 without reaching it, and that we are correcting last Thursdays drop, or may be the whole drop from 93.75, which might be over close to the Fibonacci support. Such a correction would have ideal targets at 91.14 & 91.76.
Support:
89.75: important intraday support.
88.81: Fridays low.
88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
90.04: important intraday resistance.
91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
