Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Fundamental Analysis: German ZEW Economic Sentiment
European traders look forward to the publication of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment tomorrow, February 15. The German Zentrum fr Europische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment determines the sentiment of German institutional investors. Above 0 indicates optimism while below 0 indicates pessimism.
It's a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a decline from the past reading to a reading of 42.50.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support 1.3662 and fell strongly as we expected, reaching the first suggested target 1.3582 successfully, and stopping only 5 pips before the second target 1.3525, Which confirmed a continuation of the downtrend, and an inability of using any chance to create a notable correction. And today, the continuation of the trend is expected, as we are still trading below the falling trend line that is drawn on the attached chart. Short term support is are 1.3572 and breaking it would indicate that we have lived a short correction after Fridays fall, and we are to continue falling today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the resistance 1.3675, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater, and the ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 & 1.3836. In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be important not just for the short term, but for the medium term as well.
Support:
1.3572: Apr 6th high.
1.3525: May 14th low.
1.3422: important line on intraday charts.
Resistance:
1.3675: last Wednesdays low.
1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
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USD/JPY
For another day, Dollar-Yen frustrated our hopes for a big move, and stayed another day trading in very tight ranges, and very boring ones! We have not had our major move until now. But this very limited activity should come to an end soon, and a trend will be born, which will bring back some excitement to this pair, after a very boring week. Thus, we will await a break of the support or resistance of the day, and in case we get one, we expect to see a sizeable move in the direction of the break. Our eyes will be on the support 89.83, and breaking it would enhance chances of a drop in the first of this week, targeting 89.22, and then the all important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance is at 90.22, and breaking it would target 91.14, and then what could be the most important resistance for short term 91.76.
Support:
89.83: the rising trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts.
89.22: last Fridays low.
88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.26 to 88.53.
91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes. They are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro did not break the resistance nor the support specified in yesterdays report, and traded in a tight range for the past 24 hours. The resistance that is considered the upper limit for the downtrend is 1.3720, and as long as the price is below this level, we favor more downside activity, But the technical outlook changes dramatically the minute this level is broken. The continuation of the downtrend is expected, as we are still trading below the falling trend line drawn from 1.3838. Short term support is are 1.3616 and breaking it would indicate that we have lived a short correction after Fridays fall, and we are to continue falling today, targeting 1.3525 & 1.3422. But in case of breaking the resistance 1.3720, the odds of a short term uprising correction will be greater, and the ideal targets of such a correction are the Fibonacci levels 1.3778 & 1.3836. In case we get close to these areas, the resistance at 1.3836 will be important not just for the short term, but for the medium term as well.
Support:
1.3616: the rising trend line from 1.3530 on intraday charts.
1.3525: May 14th low.
1.3422: May 18th low.
Resistance:
1.3720: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on intraday charts.
1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
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USD/JPY
Yesterday, Dollar-Yen did not break the support or resistance specified in the report, but it did break 89.83 during the Asian session. This break holds a lot of importance for the short term, since it is a break for the hourly trend line rising from the important bottom 88.53. Thus we will await a break of the Asian session low 89.70 to confirm the break of this trend line, and breaking it would enhance chances of a drop in the coming hours, targeting 89.12, and then the all important Fibonacci medium & long term support 88.23. The resistance stays at 90.22, and the negative technical outlook will not change unless we decisively break this resistance. If this break happens, we would target the important Fibonacci levels 91.14, and then what could be the most important resistance for short term 91.76.
Support:
89.70: the rising trend line from 88.53 on hourly charts.
89.12: Jan 27th low.
88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
90.22: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 91.26 to 88.53.
91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
The Bank of Japan will be holding a press conference, their preferred method of communicating with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.3720 and successfully and accurately reached the first suggested target 1.3778 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3780). This break moves the importance to the most important Fibonacci resistance for the short term at 1.3836, where we see a double importance for today. Breaking this level would indicate that the Euro has broken free from pressure and downtrend (for the short term at least), and we will await any signals of a direction change for the medium term. Short term resistance is at 1.3778 and we are trading pips below it now. If it is broken, we would target a test of the most important 1.3836, and if broken, we would target 1.3911 as a first, temporary, modest target on the way higher. Short term support is at 1.3740 and if broken, The Euro would settle for a 1.3780 as a short term top, and a drop would already be underway, targeting 1.3685 & 1.3626.
Support:
1.3740: an obvious support on the hourly chart.
1.3685: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
1.3626: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
1.3778: Fibonacci 50% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3836: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last drop from 1.4025.
1.3911: Jan 29th low.
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USD/JPY
The Dollar-Yen maintained trading above the support specified in yesterdays report 89.70 (the low after issuance of the report was 89.77), and it rose modestly to break 90.22 and only reaching 90.49. This behaviour is a continuation for the slow advancement activity that we have seen recently, which as it is shown on the chart, is trading inside a slowly rising channel. As long as we are trading inside this channel we expect more of the same. The bottom of the channel is at 89.90 and this is the most important support for the short term. If broken, a drop will be initiated targeting 89.12 & 88.23 all over again. The resistance is at Jan 26th & 28th top 90.53, and breaking it would indicate that this rising trend will accelerate, targeting Fibonacci levels 91.14 & 91.76 all over again.
Support:
89.90: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
89.12: Jan 27th low.
88.23: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 93.75.
Resistance:
90.53: Jan 26th & 28th highs.
91.14: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Traders of the US look forward to the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index measures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 0.30%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro stopped just 8 pips above the resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.3778, before collapsing completely, breaking the support 1.3740 and successfully reaching both suggested targets 1.3685 & 1.3626. As we always say, stopping close enough to a Fibonacci resistance is an evidence of a downtrend, and this is what happened yesterday. Today, it seems we will have a correction for yesterday's huge drop, before continuing to go lower is such a strong downtrend. Intraday support 1.3562 is an important support, and as long as we hold above it, the odds for having our correction will be immense. But, if we break it, this sharp strong drop will go on and the next set of targets will be the very important support 1.3482 & if broken 1.3422. On the other hand, if we survive above 1.3562, we will test the resistance 1.3594, and if broken the correction will be immediately initiated, wit an ideal target at 1.3671, and if broken the next target will be 1.3724.
Support:
1.3562: the most important intraday support.
1.3482: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long term.
1.3422: May 18th low.
Resistance:
1.3594: Feb 12th low.
1.3671: Fibonacci 50% for yesterday's collapse.
1.3724: hourly resistance.
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USD/JPY
As expected, the Dollar-Yen maintained trading inside the channel we talked about yesterday, broke the resistance 90.53 & successfully reached the first suggested target 91.14. its only coincidence that short term Fibonacci 61.8% is almost at this level, specifically at 91.15. If it is broken, we will continue to rise and target the important Fibonacci 61.8% at 91.76. And this is an important resistance that if it is broken we can say with confidence that the Dollar has freed itself from short term downtrend. The first target of this "freedom" will be Oct 27th top 92.31. Short term resistance is at 90.80, and breaking it would reverse the strength signs we have seen in the past two days, creating a modest surprise. If this surprise actually happens, then we will target the most important short term support at 90.12, and only if broken we expect the Dollar-yen to reach 89.54.
Support:
90.80: Asian session low.
90.12: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
89.54: Feb 11th low.
Resistance:
91.15: short term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance.
91.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
92.31: Oct 27th high.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Wed, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index
European traders look forward to the publication of the German Ifo Business Climate Index. The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone. The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a rise from the past reading to a reading of 96.3.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke Fridays resistance 1.3507 and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3572, before hitting the second target 1.3653 after the open with astonishing accuracy (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3652). That is why we will consider this top to be resistance of the day. If the price continue to show strength, and broke this resistance, the current rise will go on for the short term at least. We see todays most important target for such a break will be the test of the falling trend line from 1.3838, which is currently at 1.3737. And if broken the next target will be 1.3810. But if 1.3653 holds, and succeeds in reversing short term correction, then the price will fall to support 1.3618, and if broken the targets will be 1.3544 (which may be an ideal target for such a drop, and then 1.3491.
Support:
1.3618: the confirmation level for the Engulfing pattern on the hourly chart.
1.3544: short term 50% Fibonacci level.
1.3284: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts.
Resistance:
1.3653: Important intraday top.
1.3737: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on the hourly chart.
1.3810: important intraday top.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen was not able to break the support 91.51 or the resistance 92.31 on Friday. But in spite of a relatively limited trading range, it has left us a very important signal on the charts, which is a clear Reversal Day pattern. This pattern is one of the strongest reversal formations, and most successful ones. Thus, we will immediately take the Yen side. We expect this pair to start falling once we break the short term support 91.55, which we trade pips above right now. IF the support at 91.55 is broken, we will witness a strong drop targeting 90.40 as a first target, and maybe we will also see 89.90. But if the price holds above this support, we could see a price behaviour negating this outlook, and we could see a test of the resistance 92.31. If this resistance is broken, the strength signs from last week will continue to achieve gains, with the next set of targets at 93.08 & the important 93.75.
Support:
91.55: important intraday bottom.
90.40: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
89.90: Feb 15th low.
Resistance:
92.31: Oct 27th high.
93.08: Jul 22nd low.
93.75: Jan 8th top.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tomorrow, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the New Home Sales report. It measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole.
The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 350K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support 1.3618 and traveled more than half the way to the target 1.3544 (yesterdays low 1.3572). The modest drop came after 1.3653 successfully reversed the short term direction. That is why we will consider this top to be resistance of the day. If the price continue to show strength, and broke this resistance, the current rise will go on for the short term at least. We see todays most important target for such a break will be the test of the falling trend line from 1.3838, which is currently at 1.3737. And if broken the next target will be 1.3810. But if 1.3653 holds, and succeeds in reversing short term correction, then the price will fall to support 1.3612, and if broken the targets will be 1.3544 (which may be an ideal target for such a drop, and then 1.3491.
Support:
1.3612: a rising trend line on the intraday charts.
1.3544: short term 50% Fibonacci level.
1.3491: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts.
Resistance:
1.3653: Important intraday top.
1.3737: the falling trend line from 1.3838 on the hourly chart.
1.3810: important intraday top.
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USD/JPY
The clear Reversal Day pattern proved its strength. As we have expected, the price started to fall immediately after breaking 91.55, reaching 90.84 until now (but without reaching the suggested target 90.40). As we said yesterday, the Reversal Day pattern is one of the strongest & most reliable reversal patterns, that is why we will keep our bias towards the Yen, but with caution, because as we get closer & closer to the channel bottom, the odds of a rising correction gets bigger & bigger. Short term most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart which is currently at 90.55. We do not recommend going short before it is broken. If this break takes place, the price will drop targeting 89.90, and then 89.22. Resistance is at Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term 91.37, breaking it would mean that we already have a rising correction (at least). Targets of such a break are 92.31 & 93.08.
Support:
90.55: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
89.90: Feb 15th low.
89.22: Feb 10th low.
Resistance:
91.37: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
92.31: Oct 27th high.
93.08: Jul 22nd low.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part II.
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Today, Feb 24, 2010, 11:00 EST
In the second installment of the Webinar Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Dan Cook will take a deeper dive into the Foreign Exchange Market. Cook will start by discussing the interbank system and how it differs in form and functionality to the centralized exchange models used for trading stocks and commodities. From there, he will focus on broker-level dealing and discuss how retail brokers, whether ECN's or Dealing Desk models, make money.
Cook will also take an inside look at dealing desks and speak frankly about the roles and responsibilities of a retail dealing desk, which will include an overview of how brokers hedge currency exposure. The goal of this Webinar is to help traders understand the nuances of the Forex market by shedding light on many of the aspects of currency trading that have previously been shrouded in mystery.
Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Traders of the US look forward to Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve Chairman, who will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.3653 and came close to 1.37, before a total reversal took place, and the Euro fell so hard, breaking the support 1.3612, and reached the first suggested target 1.3544 successfully, and stopped only 4 pips before the second. After this collapse, we ask ourselves, will the Euro be able to bounce back? The most important support for the short term is at 1.3514, where there is the rising trend line from Fridays low. If this line is broken, the fall will continue, targeting areas below the latest bottom 1.3442, most important of which for today are 1.3422 & then 1.3338.The resistance is provided by the short term 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3615. If broken, then the odds of breaking the important trend line demonstrated on the attached chart will be huge, and the price will jump to 1.3689 & 1.3787.
Support:
1.3514: the rising trend line from Feb 19th low on intraday charts.
1.3422: May 18th low.
1.3338: Apr 29th high.
Resistance:
1.3615: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3689: Feb 23rd high.
1.3787: Feb 17th high.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterdays report 90.55, and reached the first suggested target 89.90 with an unbelievable accuracy (yesterdays low was exactly 89.90). This support, which represents short term 61.8% Fibonacci level, will be the most important support for today. If broken, the drop that started with the Reversal Day pattern will carry on. The next set of targets will be 89.22 & may be 88.53. But if we hold above yesterdays low, the odds of rising will be huge, even if for a correction. And if this turns out to be a rising correction, the ideal target would be at 91.02, and also, we could see a visit to the previous well known support/resistance area 91.63.
Support:
89.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
89.22: Feb 10th low.
88.53: Feb 4th low.
Resistance:
90.28: Asian session high.
91.02: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.63: previous well known support/resistance area.
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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market
Expert: Anthony Cherniawski
When: Today, Mar 15, 2010, 15:00 GMT
Anthony Cherniawski, Manager of The Practical Investor, LLC combines his proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets. Tony specializes in swing trading and directional (trend) trading in exchange traded funds.
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Existing Home Sales report. It measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
This report helps to analyze the strength of the US housing market, which helps to analysis the economy as a whole.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 5.5 M.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterdays reports 1.3514, dropped about 70 pips without reaching the suggested target 1.3422. Also, the price managed to keep trading above last Fridays low, the important bottom 1.3442. Today, we see this support as the most important, and if the price stays above it, the odds of rising will be bigger. But these odds will suffer a severe hit once we break this level, even with very few pips. If 1.3442 gets broken, we see the Euro continuing the drop that started yesterday at 1.3625, and we see it leaving the 1.34 areas targeting 1.3384 as a first target for this break, and 1.3299 as a second target. The resistance is at 1.3495, and breaking it would indicate we are correcting yesterdays drop. The ideal target for such a correction would be 1.3558, and if broken, the Euro will show enough strength to jump to 1.3632, and may be more.
Support:
1.3442: Feb 19th low.
1.3384: Jan 19th 2009 high.
1.3299: Apr 24th high.
Resistance:
1.3495: Feb 17th high.
1.3558: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3632: the falling trend line from 1.4192.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterdays report 89.90 and stopped only 8 pips before reaching the first suggested target 89.22. Breaking 89.90 holds a lot of importance on the technical side, because this area was the most important support for the short term, and because breaking it indicates the drop from 92.31 is (probably) not just a corrective one, and that is why it will go on, on the short term. Yesterdays target 89.22, will be todays support, and if the price manages to break it, we will move towards the next set of targets in the 88 area, most important of which are 88.53 & 88.00. As for the resistance, it is at 89.75, and breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.39, 90.72 & 91.05. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.75 break.
Support:
89.22: Feb 10th low.
88.53: Feb 4th low.
88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
89.75: the most important resistance on the hourly chart.
90.39: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
91.05: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market
Expert: Anthony Cherniawski
When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST
This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets.
Traders of North America anticipate the decision of the Bank of Canada (BOC) on short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict the reading will stay at a rate of 0.25%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Fridays report 1.3617, only to reach 1.3681. And after falling again closer to 1.36, the resistance 1.3648 came back into play, but the most important resistance in these areas is provided by the falling trend line from 1.3838 which is currently at 1.3713. We see that a break of 1.3648 means that the price will be heading to test the most important resistance (1.3713) as a first target for this break. And if this is also broken, we will head towards the second target 1.3810. The support is at 1.3589, and breaking it would leave us with no reason to wait for a test of 1.3713 in the short term. On the contrary we will be closer to a new test of the important support area between Wednesdays low 1.3450, and Feb 18th low 1.3442. If the Euro breaks support at 1.3589, the downtrend will resume, targeting 1.3496 & 1.3442.
Support:
1.3589: the low since this weeks open.
1.3496: Feb 18th low.
1.3442: Feb 19th low.
Resistance:
1.3648: important intraday top.
1.3713: the falling trend line from 1.3838.
1.3810: important resistance level on hourly charts.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in Fridays report 89.50, but it stopped 19 pips before the suggested target 88.53. And as we start a new week, we see the Dollar-Yen trying to break the falling trend line from 92.31 on the intraday charts. If it succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This trend line is very close to the resistance 89.34, and that is why this resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.34 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far (please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day, and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue, and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably important support levels.
Support:
88.81: Oct 7th low.
88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
87.35: Dec 9th low.
Resistance:
89.34: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
90.83: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Using Chart Patterns to Recognize Trends in the Market
Expert: Anthony Cherniawski
When: Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 11:00 EST
This session will discuss the proprietary cycles studies with other patterning devices and techniques to enhance the accuracy of cycle projections and trades. This multi-disciplinary approach may help improve the outcome of trading decisions for beginning and even experienced traders. The use of chart patterns, Elliott Wave, trend lines and even Japanese Candlesticks provide a means of raising the probability of success in trading the markets.
Fundamental Analysis: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the ADP National Employment Report tomorrow March 2. The report measures the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data, is a good predictive to the government's non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of -10.00K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro stopped only 4 pips above the resistance specified in yesterdays report 1.3648, and fell hard, breaking the support 1.3589, and successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.3496. It also came sort of close to the second target 1.3442 (yesterdays low was 1.3459). We note on the attached chart that yesterdays low came very close to the trend line slowly rising from 1.3422, to the extent that it could be considered as a 3rd touch of the line. Thus, this line has gained more importance. Usually, when the price stops and creates a series of bottoms that are so close to each other (1.3442, 1.3450 & yesterday 1.3459), and provides us a slightly rising trend line as it is the case, a break of this line will result in a big move on the medium term, and this is to be expected here. A break of this line could result in a move approaching 1.30 in a very few weeks. For the short term, the above mentioned line provides support at 1.3465, and if it gets broken, we see the Euro falling to 1.3390 & 1.3299. The resistance is provided by Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 1.3578, and if broken the Euro will catch a breath, and jump to 1.3652, and may be 1.3740.
Support:
1.3465: the slightly rising trend line from 1.3422.
1.3390: Apr 13th high.
1.3299: Apr 24th high.
Resistance:
1.3578: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.3652: important resistance level on hourly charts.
1.3740: previous well known resistance area.
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USD/JPY
Not a lot of motion in the past 24 hours, it seems that this pair is still building a base, in a step to change short term direction. Today, we see the Dollar-Yen trying to break the falling trend line from 89.48 on the intraday charts. If it succeeds in doing so, we will be in front of a new trend in a new week. This trend line is very close to the resistance 89.39, and that is why this resistance will be resistance of the day. Breaking it would indicate this pair is targeting the short term Fibonacci retracement levels, and the major 3 levels are at 90.02, 90.43 & 90.83. We picked the first and last of them as targets for the 89.39 break. As for the resistance 88.81 has shown strength so far (please refer to the attached chart). We will adopt it as support of the day, and if it is broken, we ill not get out new trend today, the fall will continue, and the next set of targets will be 88.00 & 87.35, most of them are notably important support levels.
Support:
88.81: Oct 7th low.
88.00: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
87.35: Dec 9th low.
Resistance:
89.39: the slightly falling trend line from 89.48 on the intraday charts.
90.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
90.83: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 92.31.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on US dollar index see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
