Free webinar TOMORROW on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders.
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant
risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.
The Bank of England (BOE) decision on short term interest rate is due to be published tomorrow (Jan 7). The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts predict that the rate will remain at 0.50%.
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Euro Dollar
With astonishing accuracy, the Euro stopped at the suggested reversal point 1.4485 (yesterdays high was 1.4482), and exactly as we expected, started a big drop that reached 200 pips, passing by and breaking the support 1.4454, and reaching both suggested targets 1.4369 & 1.4303 successfully. And with coming back to areas below 1.43, we once again assure the importance of 1.4264, and we will consider it support of the day, and the borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4482, or a bounce to the upside. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop on the first trading day of the New Year towards 1.4176 & 1.4103. But if it holds, a test of short term resistance 1.4327 will follow, and breaking it would lead to a correction of yesterdays big fall, ideally targeting 1.4406, and if broken we will jump to 1.4485, which reversed the upside activity, and caused yesterdays drop.
Support:
1.4264: Dec 21st low.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.
1.4103: Aug 10th low.
Resistance:
1.4327: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
1.4569: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.4485: the resistance that caused yesterdays reversal.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the trend lien rising from 84.81, but the drop that followed was limited, before going back above the line. This behavior recommends caution, the price should trade below certain levels to maintain any importance for this break. Short-term resistance is 92.45, and the support is at 91.75. . If this support is broken, we will fall to the important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term, and maybe we will see 89.58 after that. On the other hand, if the price holds above this support, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at 92.45, and breaking this level would lead to a correction to the drop from 93.20 (and may be to more than that), targeting 93.08, and once its broken we will be looking forward to the long awaited 93.53.
Support:
91.75: the rising trend line from yesterdays low on intraday charts.
90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20.
89.58: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 87.35 to 93.20.
Forex tradingby Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Commodities and other trading tools.
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Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar TODAY on Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders.
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 7, 2010, 12:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant
risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and Forexpros.
Traders of the USD await the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls report due out tomorrow (Jan 8).
The Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people during the last month of all non-farming businesses. The total non-farm payroll accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who produce the entire gross domestic product of the United States.
It is the single most important piece of data contained in the employment report, which considered to offer the best overview of the economy.
The monthly changes and the revisions in payrolls can be quite volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast a reading of -11.00K.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance 1.4327 and reached our first suggested target 1.4406 successfully. But after reaching 1.4445 it came back to falling, as it is trading now around 1.4360. And with coming back to these areas, we once again assure the importance of 1.4264, and we will consider it the borderline between a continuation of the drop from 1.4482, or a bounce to the upside. But before it we should place our attention on 1.4344, and if broken a test of the important 1.4264 will be underway. If this important support is taken, we expect the Euro to drop towards 1.4176. But if it holds, a test of short term resistance 1.4394 will follow, and breaking it would lead to a rising move targeting 1.4485, which reversed the upside activity, and caused Tuesdays drop, and later 1.4584.
Support:
1.4344: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.4264: Dec 21st low.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.
Resistance:
1.4394: the falling trend line from yesterdays high on intraday charts.
1.4485: the resistance that caused Tuesdays reversal.
1.4584: Dec 11th low.
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USD/JPY
As we said yesterday, Dollar-Yen broke the trend line rising from 84.81, but the drop that followed was limited, before going back above the line. This behavior recommends caution, since going back above the broken line stripped a lot of importance for this break. Short-term resistance is 93.08, and the support is at 92.24 . If this support is broken, we will fall to 91.51, and then the important 90.55, which is also another important support for the short term. On the other hand, if the price holds above this support, a short term rise will be initiated, challenging short term resistance at 93.08, and breaking this level would at least lead to challenge the top93.20, targeting the long awaited 93.53, and if this important resistance is broken, we will target 94.05.
Support:
92.24: the rising trend line from 84.81
91.51: obvious resistance area on the hourly chart.
90.55: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 93.20.
Resistance:
93.08: previous support/resistance area.
93.53: Mar 19h low.
94.05: Aug 28th high.
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Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for quotes on Rates and Bonds.
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Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar from Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
The Trade Balance index will be published tomorrow (Jan 12) in the US, Britain and Canada.
The Trade Balance index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports). This is the largest component of a country's balance of payments.
Export data can give reflection on the country's growth. Imports provide an indication of domestic demand.
Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports, it may have sizable affect on the domestic currency.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the currency, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the currency.
Analysts predict a reading of -32.90B for the USD, -7.10B for the GBP and 0.40B for the CAD.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Fridays report 1.4332, and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.4407 & 1.4485. But this rising move have bumped into (And slightly surpassed) the trend line which was the center of our attention all last week, and caused a notable reversal close to 1.4485. Thus, the Asian session top 1.4531 will be an important resistance to determine if this line is able to create another reversal, or if it will be broken this time, letting the price fly. The support is at 1.4485. We will be waiting for a break of either of them to determine short term trend. IF the resistance 1.4531 is broken, the Euro will gain a lot of strength, targeting 1.4625, and the important Fibonacci level 1.4678. If the support at 1.4485 is broken, it would indicate that this line has probably created another reversal similar to the one we saw last week, ideally targeting 1.4428 & 1.4365.
Support:
1.4485: important previous resistance close to last weeks high.
1.4428: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
1.4365: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
1.4531: Asian session high.
1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term.
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USD/JPY
Although it has reached 93.75, the Dollar-Yen has closed obviously on the negative side, below the important trend line on the daily charts. The price broke the support specified in Fridays report, and successfully reached the first suggested target 92.20. We have explained the importance of Fridays closing in the last report, and said that closing above or below 93.35 leads to completely different readings: a negative one and a positive one. The closing price came clearly below 93.35 (Fridays close 92.62), which can be read without hesitation as a negative closing. Today, we will be on the watch for this line which is currently at 93.11, and we will take a negative bias towards this pair as long as we are below this most important resistance for the time being. Support is at 92.20 (and as this report is being prepared we are trading only pips above it). Breaking the resistance 93.11 will be surprising to us, and will give the needed strength to reach areas beyond 94, most important of which are 94.05 & 94.62. While a break of the support 92.20 would open the way to a drop towards 91.51 & 90.76.
Support:
92.20: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
91.51: obvious resistance area on the hourly chart.
93.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 88.91 to 93.75.
Resistance:
93.11: the falling trend line from 101.43 on the daily charts.
94.05: Aug 28th high.
94.62: Jan 6th 2008 high.
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Forex tradingby Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for technical and fundamental analysis.
---
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar from Forexpros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thu, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Traders of USD await the publication of the Core Retail Sales report.
The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a reading of 0.30%, down from the previous 1.20%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro did not succeed in its first attempt to break the trend line we talked about yesterday. And also, the price did not move all too much, leaving yesterdays Asian session top 1.4531 as the important resistance to determine if this line is able to create another reversal, or if it will be broken this time, letting the price fly. The support is at 1.4485. We will be waiting for a break of either of them to determine short term trend. IF the resistance 1.4531 is broken, the Euro will gain a lot of strength, targeting 1.4625, and the important Fibonacci level 1.4678. If the support at 1.4485 is broken, it would indicate that this line has probably created another reversal similar to the one we saw last week, ideally targeting 1.4428 & 1.4365.
Support:
1.4485: important previous resistance close to last weeks high.
1.4428: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
1.4365: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
Resistance:
1.4531: Asian session high.
1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term.
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USD/JPY
We will maintain a negative bias towards this pair, and it is enough to take a look at the attached chart to know the reason why. Dollar-Yen is currently trading below the rising trend line on the hourly chart, and it is vulnerable to a big drop. We explained in the last two reports the importance of Fridays closing, and said that closing above or below 93.35 leads to completely different readings: a negative one and a positive one. The closing price came clearly below 93.35 (Fridays close 92.62), which can be read without hesitation as a negative closing. Today, we will place our focus on the broken trend line which is currently at 92.40, and we will take a negative bias towards this pair as long as we are below this most important resistance for the time being. Support is at 91.70. Breaking the resistance 92.40 will be surprising to us, and will give the needed strength to reach areas beyond 94, most important of which are 94.05 & 94.62. While a break of the support 91.70 would open the way to a drop towards 90.76 & 89.79.
Support:
91.70: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart.
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.35 to 93.75.
Resistance:
92.40: the retest level for the broken trend line on the hourly chart.
94.05: Aug 28th high.
94.62: Jan 6th 2008 high.
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Forex tradinganalysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World Indices charts and other trading tools.
---
Disclaimer Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High
Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the
world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk
through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to
identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where
profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online
Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Traders anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims report
tomorrow, January 14.
Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for
unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly
report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of
the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer
people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a
meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish
for the USD.
Analysts predict no change in the reading which will remain at 434.00K.
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Euro Dollar
For the second day in a row, the Euro did not create any major or
technically meaningful moves. We maintained a trading range below Monday's
top 1.4555, and above the Asian session bottom for the same day 1.4452. It
seems like this trading range is getting tighter & tighter, which is a price
behavior that usually happens before large moves. The borders of this tight
area are drawn with the two small trend lines on the hourly chart which are
at 1.4531 & 1.4464. Thus, breaking any of these levels will move the Euro in
the direction of the break. If we break the resistance 1.4531 the odds of
going above 1.46 will be high, where the attractive targets 1.4625 & 1.4678
await. But if we break the support 1.4464, the Euro will fall again
targeting 1.4409 first, then 1.4331. And as it is the case with all tight
ranges, it is highly preferred not to take a bias towards any direction
before breaking the limits of the tight range.
Support:
* 1.4485: the trend line that limits the tight area from below.
* 1.4409: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
* 1.4331: previous well known support/resistance.
Resistance:
* 1.4531: the trend line that limits the tight area from above.
* 1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
* 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the medium term.
---
USD/JPY
Exactly as we have expected, Dollar-Yen broke yesterday's support 91.70 and
successfully reached the suggested target 90.76, stopping only 5 pips below
it, before bouncing back above 91. As we can see on the attached chart, this
pair has bumped into a support that caused it to bounce more than 60 pips
until now. Reaching 90.76 is expected to provide a chance to create a
correction for the whole fall from 93.75, which will ideally target 91.87 &
92.59. But before talking about such a correction we should see a break of
short term resistance 91.33. If the price goes back to falling, and break
short term support 90.95, the down trend will continue, and will target
90.35, and later the important 89.79.
Support:
* 90.95: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
* 90.35: support/resistance area on the 4-hour chart.
* 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.35 to 93.75.
Resistance:
* 91.33: intraday top.
* 91.87: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
* 94.62: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
---
Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on forex software see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Traders are looking forward to the publication tomorrow (January 19), of the Bank of Canada, regarding short term interest rate. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict no change in the reading which will remain at 0.25%.
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Euro Dollar
We will put all our focus for today on 1.4299, where there is the rising trend line from December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last weeks report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is at 1.4421, and breaking it will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 & 1.4555.
Support:
1.4299: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd bottom.
1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.
Resistance:
1.4421: a falling trend line on the intraday charts and hourly chart.
1.4509: Nov 3rd low.
1.4555: Jan 11th high.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen tried to break 90.76 on Friday, before going back above it after an short-lived attempt, and stayed above it until the weekly close. But on the other hand, the internal structure of the last two moves: the rise from 90.71 & the fall from 92.03 could be read as parts 1 & 2 of a 3-way correction, or in the language of Elliott Wave analysis: waves a & b. In this case, a similar up move to the one from 90.71 will appear before breaking this important bottom. Such a move will ideally target 91.87 & 92.59. And given that short term resistance is at 91.30, a break here would indicate this move is already underway. On the other hand, breaking 90.76 will eliminate this assumption, and indicates a continuation of the drop on the last day of the week, which is expected to hit this pair hard, and drag it to 89.79 and may be 89.22.
Support:
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area.
Resistance:
91.30: the falling trend line from 93.75.
91.87: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
92.59: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.For information on forex quotes see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Traders look forward to the publication of the Canadian Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will be released tomorrow (January 20). The CPI measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy. Also, it measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in Canada. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of 0.20% versus a past reading of 0.40%.
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Euro Dollar
We will put all our focus for today on 1.4303, where there is the rising trend line from December 22nd bottom. Staying above it or breaking it will determine the direction for today. If broken, what we called a minor probability in last weeks report (that we have bumped into a medium term reversal level at Fibonacci 38.2%) will get boosted. In this case, the drop from 1.4577 will carry on, and its targets will be the Dec 22nd bottom 1.4216, and the important support at 1.4176. Short term resistance is still at 1.4421, and breaking it will bring back a little bit of the positive outlook, targeting 1.4509 & 1.4555.
Support:
1.4303: the rising trend line from Dec 22nd bottom.
1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
1.4176: Sep 1st low.
Resistance:
1.4421: yesterdays resistance that stopped the rise.
1.4509: Nov 3rd low.
1.4555: Jan 11th high.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the support that we put under our surveillance in the last few days 90.76, and although this break was not followed by a big move, closing below it indicates momentum in the downtrend. Now, it is important for the price to stay below the most important resistance 90.90, which is provided by the falling trend line from 93.75. Staying under this trend line in specific means that the downtrend is going on. Short term support is 90.37, breaking it would initiate a down move that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would target 89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 90.90, we do not expect it to be broken today, but if a surprise happens, we will be in an upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75, which will ideally target the 3 main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04 & 92.44.
Support:
90.37: intraday support.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area.
Resistance:
90.90: the falling trend line from 93.75.
91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
---
Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on stock prices see ForexPros.
---
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selction process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Traders anticipate the publication tomorrow (21 January) of the Initial Jobless Claims. It is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a slight change from the previous reading of 444.00k to a future reading of 440.00k.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke yesterdays support 1.4303, and successfully reached both suggested targets for this break 1.4216 & 1.4176. Reaching areas below 1.4216 so fast, indicates how solid this break was, and confirms its importance. But, now after we have reached here, we should keep open minds towards every possibility. The most probable one is of course a continuation of the Dollar rally, and dragging the Euro lower and lower. This scenario gains more confidence if and when we break 1.4185, and in this case the next set of targets will be 1.4103 and the important 1.4006. But, if it turns out that todays movement will be opposite to the direction of the break we witnessed yesterday, the Euro will break the resistance at 1.4216, and in this case we may see a strong rise targeting Fibonacci retracement levels 1.4322 & 1.4371.
Support:
1.4185: the most important intraday support for the last few hours.
1.4103: Aug 10th low.
1.4176: the important bottom of Jul 29th.
Resistance:
1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
1.4322: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
1.4371: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
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USD/JPY
In an unexpected fashion, Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 90.90 and challenged the resistance area near 91.30, in a break that is completely opposite to the technical outlook that followed the break of 90.76. This break makes the picture unclear, and we will be awaiting clearer signals by breaking the support o resistance of the day 90.76 & 91.30. Short term support is 90.76, breaking it would initiate a down move that we expect to be stronger that what we have seen lately, and would target 89.79 and 89.22. And as we said, the most important resistance is 91.30, and if broken, we will be in an upward correction for the whole drop from 93.75, which will ideally target the 3 main Fibonacci retracement levels 91.64, 92.04 & 92.44.
Support:
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
89.22: a previous well known support/resistance area.
Resistance:
91.30: a well known support/resistance area which stopped yesterdays rise.
91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on trading courses see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - Identifying Low Risk, High Reward, and High Probability Trading Opportunities For Short Term Forex Traders
Expert: Sam Seiden
When: Thursday, Jan 21, 2010, 11:00 EST
During this session, we will apply what we learned during session one to the world of active short term trading in the Forex markets. We will walk through the trade selection process, applying our rule based strategy to identify price levels where demand and supply are out of balance and where profit margins are large offering us significant risk/reward opportunities.
This webinar is the second of a three part series brought to you by Online Trading Academy and ForexPros.
Traders anticipate the publication of the UK Retail Sales on Friday (January 22). It is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a change in the future reading to 1.30% versus a previous reading of -0.30%.
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Euro Dollar
The Euro broke yesterdays support 1.4185, and successfully reached the suggested target for this break 1.4103. With approaching 1.40, and most of the indicators going oversold on most time frames, we should ask ourselves, have we reached a bottom at yesterdays low 1.4065? Price behavior has founded a support at 1.4079, before going back above 1.41. Keeping this support is step one in using this bottom to create a strong bounce, that serves (at least) as a correction for the whole move from 1.4577. Step two would be breaking the Asian session top 1.4135, then we can say that a correction has already started. Breaking resistance of the day 1.4135, would target the previous important bottom 1.4216, and then 1.4321. But if the unexpected happens and we break 1.4079, the strong & sharp drop from 1.4577 that has gained 500 pips until this moment will carry on, and will target the important 1.4006, and may be later 1.3928.
Support:
1.4079: the most important intraday support for the last few hours.
1.4006: the important bottom of Jul 29th.
1.3928: Jul 15th low.
Resistance:
1.4315: Asian session high.
1.4216: Dec 22nd bottom.
1.4321: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterdays report 91.30 and successfully reached the modest target for this break 91.64, but it did so with an astonishing accuracy since the Asian session high was exactly 91.64. This very accurate stopping indicates that Fibonacci 38.2% has stopped in the way of more rising, and could cause it trouble. Thus, we will consider 91.64 to be a resistance capable of reversing the short term direction and initiate a falling move from these levels. In case this resistance is broken the rise will continue, targeting the most important Fibonacci levels 92.04 & 92.44. In this case 92.44 will be a critical resistance for both short & medium term. But, in the case of holding below 91.64, the price will move down to challenge the rising trend line from 90.30, which is currently at 91.25. Breaking this line will bring back 90.76 into the spotlight, which will be a first target for this break, and then target 89.79 which is not less important at all.
Support:
91.25: the rising trend line from 90.30.
90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 88.91 to 93.75.
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
Resistance:
91.64: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move down from 93.75.
92.04: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move down from 93.75.
92.44: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move down from 93.75.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on world indices rates see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Free webinar on ForexPros - The Effects of Forex on the Stock and Commodities Market
Expert: Jeffrey Baskin
When: Thursday, Jan 28, 2010, 11:00 EST
In this webinar, we will discuss the Forex market and how it impacts the Stock and Commodities market. In addition to the pricing correlations and how you can find Forex trading opportunities using the synergy of all three markets.
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index
Traders look forward to the publication of the German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index tomorrow (January 26). The index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
The reading is concluded from a survey of about 7,000 businesses.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a slight rise to a reading of 95.00 versus a previous reading of 94.70.
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Euro Dollar
We have not seen any major moves on Friday. The Euro kept a bottom at 1.4027, which is very close to the most important support at the moment 1.4014, and started to rise, breaking the reports resistance 1.4137,but settled for 1.4180 only, closing just a bit below it. Candlestick watchers can notice that Thursdays candle is in fact a hammer, and that Fridays candle has recorded a higher high, working as a confirmation for the hammer pattern. This makes the odds favor a continuation of the rise that started at 1.4027, to at least create a matching correction for the whole drop from 1.4577. Todays resistance is provided by the falling trend line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.4184, while the support is provided by short term 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.4085. Breaking resistance of the day would initiate a strong rise targeting 1.4302, and then 1.4367. But if the unexpected happens and we break 1.4085, the strong & sharp drop from 1.4577 that has gained 550 pips until this moment will carry on, and will target the very important 1.4014, and may be later 1.3928.
Support:
1.4085: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
1.4014: Fibonacci 50% for the long term (for the rise from 1.2885 to 1.5143).
1.3928: Jul 15th low.
Resistance:
1.4184: the falling trend line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart.
1.4302: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
1.4367: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
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USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen did not move but 75 pips on Friday, and did not break any major levels during that limited move. Thus, our attention is still revolving around 89.79, the most important support at all for now. As we have said in last week reports, the importance of 89.79 comes from the fact that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for the whole up move from 87.35 to 93.75. This very accurate stopping indicates that Fibonacci 61.8% has stopped in the way of more dropping, and could cause it trouble. Thus, we will consider 89.79 to be a support capable of reversing the short term direction and initiate a rising move from these levels. In case this support is broken the drop will continue, targeting 88.91 & 88.30. In this case 92.44 will be a critical resistance for both short & medium term. But, in the case of holding above 89.79, the price will move up to challenge the previous important support 90.30. Breaking this support will put attention at two important resistance levels and they are the short term 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level at 91.06 and then the falling trend line from 93.75 which is currently at 91.64.
Support:
89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from 87.35 to 93.75.
88.91: Dec 18th low.
88.30: Dec 14th low
Resistance:
90.30: previous important support.
91.06: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
91.64: the falling trend line from 93.75.
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Forex TradingAnalysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
For information on forex charts see ForexPros.
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Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
