Watched a nice discussion on TV. Thought of sharing some points as under :
The participants were FII and fund managers like Ridham Desai, N Jaikumar,Ramesh Damani, Vibhav Kapur and Sushil Kedia. The topic was whether the ongoing bull market has still more steam left or we are near the end of the bull market ( or already seen a bull market top at 9200...
All participants felt that bull market has many more years to go...the signs of bull market topping out was not seen and the signs are as under :
1) Inflation goes up and out of Govt's control.
2) Interest rates are high.
3) The excesses are clearly seen. Markets gallop and the last phase is a blow off phase where markets go up few % points every day.
4) Cats and Dogs shares and shares with poor fundamentals go to dizzy proportions.
5) Retail participation increases and the retail gets trapped at the bull market top.
6)Traders find it very easy to make huge gains ,your driver or maid servant's husband will tell you how he made money in stocks....that is a sure sign of top approaching.Rikshaw drivers,taxi drivers will talk about stock market gains.
7) After the top, the market will crash and will come down not by 8-10 % but 50-60 % from the top....traders and investors trapped will get devastated.
8) Everyone even new investors will find making money in the market very easy and they will get sucked in...
Having seen atleast 4 bull and bear market cycles I agree with most of the observations....and hence thought of sharing....my view is also that we are not even at 1/3 distance in the current bull market.Corrections of 8-12 % will keep coming in between...
Smart_trade