Going With The 60min Flow!!!

[debdeeps]

Hi Satya, MB and vinst,
I am also interested in trading NF using Saint's 60 min flow method. But before I actually start trading using this method I would like to spend some time on paper trading. I have identified according to this methos we are in uptrend now and if we are carrying any long position then the SL and reversal point would be 3904 NIfty Spot. Pls comment.
For your reference I am attaching here Nifty Spot 5 min and hourly charts. Pls guide. Thanks

 

[milkyblack]

Hello all,

NF for July 7th

July Series

Number	Trade	Level	SL	Initial Risk	P/L(Close)	Remarks

6	Long 	3922+	3816-	-106		+42

5	Short	3863-	3922+	Closed		-59

4	Long	3914+	3863-	Closed		-51		Not taken a/c gap

3	Short	4127-	3914+	Closed		+213

2	Long	4152+	4127-	Closed		-25		Gap Intraday

1	Short	4127-	4152+	Closed		-25		Gap Intraday

Total booked P/L = +53

Regards

 

[milkyblack]

Thanks Milky for your effort....
Seek views on my views :
The long taken on 5th June above the high of 12 Noon bar 4636 (my chart shows 4637) to me seems an error..my reason : The aid candle cannot be treated as a Pivot!!! The bar after it makes a lower high but the very next bar breaches the high made by 12 Noon bar hence the pivot status to it is denied. The next pivot according to me is made only on 6th June 10 AM, and that pivot does not breach the previous pivot high hence the short would continue!!!
On 6th according to me, the 12 noon bar made a low of 4640 and was a valid low pivot!!! Why dont we short below this!!! Why wait for next day to short!!??? Am i making any errors in identifying the pivots!!???
Do we have some rule for exiting on the derivatvie closing day!!! OR we roll over our position!!!
Regards
-R K Karnani

Hello RK Sir,

4636 to be taken as a pivot because, before that we made a low of 4550 on 4th june(last hour candle), and on 5th june after making a high of 4636, we broke the previous low of 4550, so the latest high becomes the pivot. so we go long above 4636.

Regarding why do not we take 4640 as the pivot low is that... we take into a/c only major pivot H/L... if the high of 4671 was taken off then 4640 would have been the point to short. Or else it should be a major pivot... as in... formed after few bars of up/down move and then price reverse.

Though in the hindsight now it looks like 4640 is the perfect time to short!

My apologies for replying to you late.

Please post your view on my understandings from Saint's method!

For derivative closing day, we exit our positions at closing/if SL is hit... and we enter into new series the next day...
If there is a gap opening next day, we take new positions based on gap rules! And if flat opening then take new positions based in the direction of the 60 min!

Regards

 

[rkkarnani]

Hello RK Sir,

4636 to be taken as a pivot because, before that we made a low of 4550 on 4th june(last hour candle), and on 5th june after making a high of 4636, we broke the previous low of 4550, so the latest high becomes the pivot. so we go long above 4636.

Regarding why do not we take 4640 as the pivot low is that... we take into a/c only major pivot H/L... if the high of 4671 was taken off then 4640 would have been the point to short. Or else it should be a major pivot... as in... formed after few bars of up/down move and then price reverse.

Though in the hindsight now it looks like 4640 is the perfect time to short!

My apologies for replying to you late.

Please post your view on my understandings from Saint's method!

For derivative closing day, we exit our positions at closing/if SL is hit... and we enter into new series the next day...
If there is a gap opening next day, we take new positions based on gap rules! And if flat opening then take new positions based in the direction of the 60 min!

Regards

Thanks milky for your reply, delay is no matter at all, am obliged to people like you who take out time to attend to queries without expecting anything in return.....
Okay now coming to the pivots!!!
4636 as you said after making a high of 4636 we broke the low made the previous day!! So far its okay, but my contention is that the bar that broke the previous days low also broke the high of 4636 which we are considering as the Pivot.... hence my hesitation to accept it as a valid pivot!!!

Now coming to the 4640, the bars after the bar making 4640 as low have the high of higher than the bar making the low 0f 4640... the high of 4671 was taken out by bothe the bars after this bar!!!! Do i have a faulty chart...shouldnt be!!!
Please take the trouble to look into both the aspects above and your feed back.
Thanks again Milky..
Regards
R K Karnani
ps.: going strictly by the definition of pivots as I have understood would we not consider the 4 PM bar on 6th as LLP and again the 2 PM bar on 5th as yet another LLP...in both the cases the high of the Pivot bar was breached by susequent two bars!!!!

 

[milkyblack]

Thanks milky for your reply, delay is no matter at all, am obliged to people like you who take out time to attend to queries without expecting anything in return.....
Okay now coming to the pivots!!!
4636 as you said after making a high of 4636 we broke the low made the previous day!! So far its okay, but my contention is that the bar that broke the previous days low also broke the high of 4636 which we are considering as the Pivot.... hence my hesitation to accept it as a valid pivot!!!

Now coming to the 4640, the bars after the bar making 4640 as low have the high of higher than the bar making the low 0f 4640... the high of 4671 was taken out by bothe the bars after this bar!!!! Do i have a faulty chart...shouldnt be!!!
Please take the trouble to look into both the aspects above and your feed back.
Thanks again Milky..
Regards
R K Karnani
ps.: going strictly by the definition of pivots as I have understood would we not consider the 4 PM bar on 6th as LLP and again the 2 PM bar on 5th as yet another LLP...in both the cases the high of the Pivot bar was breached by susequent two bars!!!!

Dear RK Sir,

Thanks a lot for your kind words! Indeed I am obliged to all of you here, for sharing knowledge and correcting me when I go wrong! Thanks a lot.

Sir,
I think the data is wrong for the charts
What we discussed so far on pivots, looks like we both have understood the pivot system of Saint
Lets now then get into the data part...
6th June 11 am bar High 4619.80 Low 4572
6th June 12 pm bar High 4636 Low 4580
6th June 1pm bar high 4623 Low 4551
(Thus 4636 is pivot according to this data)

Similarly the high of 4670.10 was not taken of by the bar preceding and the bar following the 4670.10 bar...

There must be something wrong with the data which is creating confusion

Regarding the LLP of 4pm bar on 6th, as the high of 4670.10 was not taken so it should not be considered as a pivot and hence not LLP (based on the data that I have in my charts)

2pm bar on 5th is LLP

Thanks!

Regards

 

[milkyblack]

The date u hv mentioned I presume should be 5th and not 6th, its a typo.
The high of 4 pm bar on 5th was indeed taken out by the 3 pm and 4 pm bars!!!! The date was mentioned as 6th by me and was a typo. I meant to write that the 2 PM bar on 4th and the 4 PM bar on 5th as LLP!!!
Now coming to the data, i think the variation is very minor to make any change in Pivot selection.
The major difference in our views is coming from my notion of minimum 5 bars requirement to make a Pivot!!!! Is this correct or even three bars would be enough to make a valid Pivot!!!!??? What do you say!!!???
Regards.
R K Karnani
ps.: Thanks for a fast reply, rather an instant responce.

Sir,

Now it is clear
Abt 3 bar or 5 bar is again a matter of situation as in.... if the move is substantial then 3 bar can become a pivot... otherwise 5 bar...
Now what is a substantial move? How to know that? I am too naive in this field to say anything...
I think Sir, it will come with experience(eventually I am not that experienced)
Indeed you are a senior member and experienced one... So your comments are valuable in this issue
I just try to share what ever I am learning over here... Maybe I am wrong most of the times

Regards

 

[milkyblack]

Sir,

Sometimes in the hindsight everything looks so nice on the charts and it looks like one can multiply wealth in a very short duration.
But when one actually trades things are very different, just the opposite, not at all easy... indeed completely in an unknown zone!
So sometimes when we try to backtest a system say like, this 60 min system... we get into a baised mind and as we know the right hand side data... we somehow try to establish a corelation with our system and the entry/exit point based on the system so that the left hand side mathes with the right hand side and vice versa.
But in reality we do not have the next bar! So as Saint says we have to have some basic rules and a plan and stick to it...
Abt the 4640 pivot low to short looks grt to short, but the rules do not give us an entry point to short then!
These things when repeat many times, then we might tweak the rules until then nothing!

Regards

 

[rkkarnani]

Sir,

Sometimes in the hindsight everything looks so nice on the charts and it looks like one can multiply wealth in a very short duration.
But when one actually trades things are very different, just the opposite, not at all easy... indeed completely in an unknown zone!
So sometimes when we try to backtest a system say like, this 60 min system... we get into a baised mind and as we know the right hand side data... we somehow try to establish a corelation with our system and the entry/exit point based on the system so that the left hand side mathes with the right hand side and vice versa.
But in reality we do not have the next bar! So as Saint says we have to have some basic rules and a plan and stick to it...
Abt the 4640 pivot low to short looks grt to short, but the rules do not give us an entry point to short then!
These things when repeat many times, then we might tweak the rules until then nothing!

Regards

I agree with you 10000000000.....% milky, yes I have seen it happen to my systems...giving 300% returns per year on paper, not giving any month any loss and when traded it was a disaster!!! Yes we tend to look at the charts to with a view to generate profits and as u rightly said, the view of right side chart easlily 'corrupts' our thinking!!!
One thing I found useful in this was TO WRITE DOWN THE RULES... in unambigous terms and refer to them whenever a trade is generated while back testing and also while actually trading. It really helps!!!
I at present some system based on ATR and I have my rules written and ready with me while trading!!!
Thanks for your feed back!!

 

[milkyblack]

I may be ( I am ) older than u in age but may be junior to you by the age in stock market, I am just 3+ years old here and still younger when TA is considered!!!
Okay, but milky what do u say about the 4 PM bar on 4th and 2 PM bar on 5th... can these be considered as LLP!!??

Sir,

Market is no different from the experiences of life(my view again ... as it is said its more to do with psychology.

It is really a very nice point where one should discuss i.e abt the 4pm bar of 4th,
but if I were to forward my understandings... I would not considered it as a pivot... as the move has not been substantial(at least on the up side) and secondly it has not taken the previous high(1pm bar on 4th).
But once the pivot high of 4646 is taken it becomes pivot low, and then again changed to 4525 (2 pm bar) when the high is again made (i.e crossing 4636)

This was a beautiful case of confusion and very easily solved looking at the past data...
But what would have been done in live trading??? Follow the rules... what rules? As Saint mentions of pivot

If one was already short on the market before that then no issues, as the trader would reverse only when the pivot high of 4636 is taken of.

Now what if one has to initate a fresh position? My view open a new position after one is sure abt the latest trend! i.e after a break of major pivot H/L.
One never knows when the market gets into a trading zone!

Regards
Regards

 

[milkyblack]

I agree with you 10000000000.....% milky, yes I have seen it happen to my systems...giving 300% returns per year on paper, not giving any month any loss and when traded it was a disaster!!! Yes we tend to look at the charts to with a view to generate profits and as u rightly said, the view of right side chart easlily 'corrupts' our thinking!!!
One thing I found useful in this was TO WRITE DOWN THE RULES... in unambigous terms and refer to them whenever a trade is generated while back testing and also while actually trading. It really helps!!!
I at present some system based on ATR and I have my rules written and ready with me while trading!!!
Thanks for your feed back!!

Thanks a lot for those 100000000... % Sir,

Yes best is to write down the rules and then trade...
Being honest to oneself is best policy!
Wish you very good luck!

Regards